In markets there is often a ‘risk-off\/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news.<\/p>\n
At the moment, that’s shifted to more of a war-on\/war-off footing, or at least a shift in how long the war might take.<\/p>\n
This view is winning out at the moment:<\/p>\n
1) The US tried to talk to Iran but Iran refused and is determined to make the US feel the pain of $200 oil via closing the Strait for a couple months<\/p>\n
2) The US is going to Plan B, which involves using navy escorts to allow passage through the Strait<\/p>\n
The main evidence for the second part is that Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. Hegseth has reported approved a request from Central Command for the expeditionary unit, typically consisting of up to 2,500 Marines but it will take 12-16 days to get there. That timeline lines up with the ‘month-end’ talk on escorts we’ve heard from the US and France.<\/p>\n
It also shows why the US and others ordered the release of emergency crude supplies, as this is now going beyond the 4-5 week timeline that Trump laid out (and then shortened).<\/p>\n
On the tape today, WTI crude has gone from $92 in early European trade to $97.80 last. That’s going to ensure a painful weekend at the pump.<\/p>\n
Trump notably today that he would end the war when he “felt it in his bones” so we’re all basically trading on his whims. We will see if $120 or $150 oil presses that timeline forward. Today’s price of just +0.7% GDP growth (annualized) in Q4 won’t make the White House feel any better about the situation it’s in.<\/p>\n
As for the market, the Nasdaq is down 1% and perilously close to testing the war low from Monday. If that breaks, we could very quickly be back to September levels.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq Comp<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In markets there is often a ‘risk-off\/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news. At the moment, that’s shifted to more…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":536174,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[45,49,48],"class_list":{"0":"post-536173","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=536173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/536174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=536173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=536173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=536173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}