\n Crude oil prices surged after the US and Israel\u2019s strikes on Iran and hovered around $100 a barrel on Thursday, closing above $100 for the first time in nearly four years<\/a>, before closing the week slightly lower at $99 a barrel<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n The war has also had massive operational impacts on airlines in the region, with nearly 50,000 flights canceled since February 28, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.\n <\/p>\n \n Rob Britton is an adjunct professor of marketing at Georgetown\u2019s McDonough School of Business and a retired American Airlines executive. He said for now, the availability of petroleum has only been slightly disrupted, but oil prices have soared.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf fuel prices remain high, fares will rise,\u201d Britton told CNN. \u201cThere\u2019s no mystery there \u2026 So just doing some simple math, one might expect ticket prices to rise almost proportionately.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Second to labor, an airline\u2019s largest cost is jet fuel. Dependent upon crude oil prices, it could be 20-30% of an airline\u2019s total expenses, Britton said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cHistorically, airlines have been prompt at raising fares when fuel prices spike,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n \n Yet, airlines often have trouble freely passing on cost increases, such as higher fuel prices, to passengers, even if it\u2019s costs being felt widely across the industry, said Zach Griff, author of an airline newsletter, From the Tray Table.<\/a>\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThere\u2019s so much more to flight prices than just the cost of fuel or even just the cost of operating a given flight,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n \n The demand for travel will have the greatest impact on fares that airlines can charge, Griff noted. If inflation or rising unemployment makes business and leisure travelers cut back on their plans this summer, the airlines won\u2019t have a lot of ability to raise fares, no matter their costs.\n <\/p>\n \n Fuel and oil \u201ccan be extremely volatile and unpredictable, and even a small change in market fuel prices can significantly affect profitability,\u201d Southwest Airlines\u2019 2025 annual report noted. \u201cPassengers often purchase tickets well in advance of their travel, and the Company may not be able to increase fares, impose fuel surcharges, increase revenues, or decrease other operating costs sufficiently to offset rapid or prolonged fuel price increases.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Kirby told CNBC<\/a> that fuel prices could have a \u201cmeaningful\u201d impact on United\u2019s next quarter financial results.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf it continues, we\u2019ll feel it in Q2 also,\u201d Kirby said after an event last week at Harvard\u2019s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.\n <\/p>\n \n At a Punchbowl news conference this week, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy expressed optimism, predicting a \u201crecovery in energy markets\u201d and praising President Donald Trump\u2019s engagement in the conflict.\n <\/p>\n \n Higher fuel costs have the potential to hurt passengers in another way \u2013 airlines may re-examine whether to keep some flights that were profitable with lower fuel prices but are now unprofitable.\n <\/p>\n \n With fewer choices for passengers, a reduced supply of tickets could itself be a factor that could raise fares.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAirlines are going to have to keep very close tabs on costs if they want to have any semblance of a profitable summer,\u201d Griff said. \u201cMarginal flights are absolutely on the chopping block.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Beyond fuel costs, airlines have already halted many of their flights to the Middle East while the war continues, losing several money-making, long-haul international flights due to safety concerns.\n <\/p>\n \n Griff said he\u2019s also worried what the fuel spike will do to the future of bankrupt low-fare carrier Spirit Airlines.\n <\/p>\n \n The airline, which had warned investors it could be forced to go out of business<\/a>, recently reached a deal with lenders to emerge from its second bankruptcy<\/a>, but Griff said the fuel spike could upend those plans.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cReemerging from bankruptcy is something that is much harder to imagine in the current environment,\u201d he said. And if Spirit is taken out of the market, that would free other airlines to raise their fares due to the lack of low-fare competition.\n <\/p>\n \n A long range version of the Boeing 777<\/a> can hold more than 45,000 gallons of jet fuel, making even modest price increases shocking for airlines which operate thousands of flights.\n <\/p>\n \n There are several steps carriers have taken to try and insulate their massive fuel purchases from the volatile energy markets.\n <\/p>\n \n This week Qantas Airways, SAS Airlines of Scandinavia and Air New Zealand took the most direct action; hiking airfares, blaming the cost of fuel during the war, according to Reuters.\n <\/p>\n \n Airlines cannot collectively agree to raise prices, according to Katy Nastro, a spokesperson for travel app Going.com, as that would violate laws against collusion, but nearly all carriers are dealing with the same market forces.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAfter next week, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we started to hear more \u2018excuseflation\u2019 begin from one carrier to the next,\u201d she said, as they all cite the war as a reason to increase fares.\n <\/p>\n \n Some airlines, like SAS, Germany\u2019s Lufthansa and Ireland\u2019s Ryanair lock in fuel prices long before they need the fuel in a process called hedging. The financial contracts guarantee stability, but they require a lot of cash and when prices go down airlines end up overpaying.\n <\/p>\n \n Last year, the price of fuel was down and carriers could have lost money if they paid in advance.\n <\/p>\n \n For United Airlines, the cost of aircraft fuel actually decreased $360 million, or 3.1%, in 2025 compared to 2024, \u201cprimarily due to a lower average price per gallon of fuel,\u201d according to the airline.<\/a>\n <\/p>\n \n Carriers in the United States largely have stopped hedging fuel.\n <\/p>\n \n Southwest Airlines dropped the practice last year after using it for a half century, saying it had become too costly and wasn\u2019t delivering the results anticipated.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe company believes its cost structure has historically provided it with an advantage over many of its airline competitors,\u201d Southwest\u2019s 2025 annual results read<\/a>. \u201cThe company remains focused on driving efficiencies to offset overall inflationary cost pressures.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Some airlines have taken steps to modernize their fleet with newer more fuel efficient aircraft, trimming their fuel bill.\n <\/p>\n \n According to American\u2019s most recent annual results<\/a>, the airline took delivery of five A321XLR, a longer-range version of the A321neo. The airline believes it will \u201cserve transatlantic markets using an estimated 10% less jet fuel per seat than current widebody aircraft due to latest-generation engines, improved aerodynamics and lighter weight materials.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Other airlines are looking to use more sustainable aviation fuel to avoid the kind of shocks in oil prices going on right now.\n <\/p>\n \n United Airlines\u2019 2025 annual report<\/a> states, \u201cThe company believes that large-scale adoption of sustainable aviation fuel in its operations is critical to helping mitigate its exposure to volatile fuel prices and achieving its environmental goals.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Sustainable fuel sources can include waste oil and fats, municipal waste, and non-food crops, but it would take a \u201cmassive increase in production to meet demand,\u201d according to the International Air Transport Association<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n The first biojet-fueled commercial flight in the world took off in 2008. By 2025<\/a> it represented .7% of worldwide aviation fuel consumption, according to IATA.\n <\/p>\n \n Unlike other airlines, Delta owns an oil refinery in Pennsylvania through a subsidiary named Monroe Energy. The plant allows them to make their own aircraft fuel, though they still have to buy the raw crude oil, Delta\u2019s annual results for 2025 read<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n The refinery not only insulates Delta from some costs, but it ensures a supply of fuel into its LaGuardia and JFK International Airport hubs.\n <\/p>\n \n Next week, US airline chiefs are expected to speak at the JP Morgan Industrials Conference and discuss their financial outlook.\n <\/p>\n![\"An](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/c-ap26071374904471.jpg\")
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