{"id":539644,"date":"2026-03-16T07:22:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T07:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/539644\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T07:22:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T07:22:08","slug":"nz-recovery-gathers-pace-as-lower-rates-weak-nzd-reshape-mortgage-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/539644\/","title":{"rendered":"NZ recovery gathers pace as lower rates, weak NZD reshape mortgage outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Major banks are seeing the same pattern, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/major-banks-predict-modest-expansion-in-upcoming-gdp-print\/568442\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u00a0major banks expecting December\u2011quarter 2025 GDP growth of around 0.3%\u20130.4% and a second consecutive rise in per\u2011capita output<\/a>, supported by strong exports, services, and tourism.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Households cautious but rate relief underpins gradual spending lift<\/p>\n<p>Despite the brighter headline outlook, the consensus view on household spending has been revised lower for both 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n<p>NZIER notes that many households on one\u2011 or two\u2011year fixed mortgage rates are still expected to roll onto lower mortgage rates over the next couple of years, supporting a \u201ccontinued recovery in household spending\u201d, but warns this will be \u201cgradual over the coming year, given the soft labour market is keeping households cautious.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Consensus forecasts also show the residential investment outlook being revised higher for the March 2026 and 2027 years, in line with a pick\u2011up in dwelling consents and NZIER\u2019s measure of architects\u2019 workload, which points to \u201can increased pipeline of housing construction work in the next 12\u201324 months.\u201d That should support credit demand from developers and property investors as the construction pipeline rebuilds.<\/p>\n<p>Exports and inflation point to higher rates later<\/p>\n<p>On the external side, forecast export growth has been revised higher for 2026 and 2027 as demand for commodity exports such as meat and dairy remains firm despite global trade uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Major banks are seeing the same pattern, with \u00a0major banks expecting December\u2011quarter 2025 GDP growth of around 0.3%\u20130.4%&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":539645,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46,3607,210789,210788],"class_list":["post-539644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-new-zealand-economy","tag-nzier"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/539644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=539644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/539644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/539645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=539644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=539644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=539644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}