WASHINGTON, D.C. \u2014 Politicians in conservative states most affected by U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods \u2014 and Ottawa\u2019s targeted retaliatory tariffs against key sectors in Republican strongholds \u2014 are increasingly concerned over the economic fallout from Donald Trump\u2019s trade agenda, especially with the 2026 midterm elections looming.<\/p>\n
Last Friday, Trump imposed a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian goods not compliant with the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, adding to existing high duties on steel, aluminum, autos, and copper. Though most Canada-U.S. trade remains USMCA-compliant, businesses dealing in affected goods had largely been waiting to see if tariffs would be lifted. Now, those industries must pass increased costs along to U.S. buyers, pushing prices higher on items ranging from groceries and clothing to cars and farm equipment. <\/p>\n
Combined with last Friday\u2019s weak U.S. jobs report, the trade concerns have GOP lawmakers worried about the political and economic impact ahead of the midterms, but only a handful dare to voice their concerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt definitely is indicative of a weakened economy, an economy that\u2019s not acting in a robust fashion. I\u2019ve all along felt like there\u2019s a lag between tariffs and actual economic downturn,\u201d Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, a Republican, told the press this week, adding that retailers have told him they think they will have to raise prices this fall.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran also warned this week of rising costs for consumers and businesses. While noting that tariffs can be good for solving trade barriers, he said \u201cthere\u2019s no question tariffs are a tax on the cost of a product.\u201d He also noted that trade uncertainty is bad for business because it \u201cdelays decisions to expand, to hire, to spend money.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, Mitch McConnell, a Republican senator from Kentucky, also railed against Trump\u2019s tariffs. <\/p>\n
\u201cWith so much at stake globally, the last thing we need is to pick fights with the very friends with whom we should be working with to protect against China\u2019s predatory and unfair trade practices,\u201d he said in a statement. He and Sen. Paul, along with Sen. Susan Collins, of Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska, also voted in favour of a resolution to undo Trump\u2019s 25 per cent tariffs back in the spring, warning of impacts on their state economies and border communities. The Senate narrowly approved the joint resolution, 51-48, but it then died in the House.<\/p>\n
Inu Manak, a fellow for trade policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, says inflated prices from the tariffs will be felt before the end of the year \u2014 and for some items, like clothing, as early as next month with back-to-school shopping. And while Republicans know these impacts are looming, they\u2019re not taking steps to mitigate the tariffs.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we are starting to see,\u201d she says, \u201cis that when they go back home to their constituencies on the weekends, they\u2019re getting a lot of questions and pushback on the tariffs themselves.\u201d<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, questions from voters during town hall meetings related mostly to the DOGE firings, Manak explains, but now tariffs are top of mind. Apart from the five senators mentioned above, however, these local chats are not being amplified by the majority of Republican lawmakers back in Washington.<\/p>\n
\u201cRepublicans are in a weird position right now because, on the one hand, they\u2019re trying to sell the president\u2019s signature economic policy, the \u2018Big Beautiful Bill,\u2019 which is huge tax cuts,\u201d Manak says. Tariff revenue is meant to help pay for those tax cuts, \u201cso they\u2019re having to sell this bill and also defend the tariffs, neither of which are popular right now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Polling has shown that the majority of Americans \u2014 and the vast majority of Democrats \u2014 oppose the tariffs.<\/p>\n
So why are Republican lawmakers muted on an issue that\u2019s so concerning to their constituents? Clark Packard, a research fellow in the Cato Institute\u2019s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, points to the \u201cshadow of Trumpism\u201d and says few will risk drawing the ire of the president and his allies.<\/p>\n
Manak agrees. She says it\u2019s unlikely that more Republican voices will push back on tariffs before the midterms. \u201cI just think that they\u2019re not willing to oppose the president, and they\u2019re very concerned about being primaried\u201d and losing seats if Trump works against them, she says.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Privately, however, they are saying plenty. Manak says she has spoken with Republicans who are concerned about the economic impact on their states and on certain industries being affected. \u201cBut they can\u2019t really do anything at this point,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n
Many lawmakers likely hope they won\u2019t have to wait for the midterms for a reckoning. Last week, the Washington, D.C.-based Federal Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in challenges to Trump\u2019s use of IEEPA, and a decision could come as early as this month over the legality of the tariffs. Packard suggests that many Republicans are \u201cquietly hoping that a court will strike down the tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n
A source close to the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they\u2019ve had conversations with those in Congress who are concerned by the tariffs. They are \u201cliterally sitting back and hoping that the courts do their job for them so they don\u2019t have to deal with this,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n
Barring a legal solution, it will be left to the voters to weigh in on Trump\u2019s tariffs. At the moment, economists are predicting slower growth, but few are talking about a recession in the coming year, despite the lower-than-expected employment report. But \u201cif that continues, if inflation ticks up, which it looks like it\u2019s potentially starting to do, then I think voters will punish the incumbents,\u201d says Manak.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Today, Republicans hold the majority in the U.S. Senate, with 53 of the 100 seats, and a slim majority in the House with 219 of 435 seats. Twenty-two Senate seats are up for grabs next year, and while the Democrats only need to gain four seats to take control, most of the races are in states that went for Trump in 2024. As for the House, some experts say the Dems are likely to flip the chamber.<\/p>\n
\u201cPolling suggests that people aren\u2019t so optimistic,\u201d says Manak. \u201cIf that continues, I do think there\u2019s a very solid chance that there will be some seat changes \u2014 barring some gerrymandering,\u201d particularly in Texas.<\/p>\n
Drawing a parallel to Trump\u2019s first term, Manak points out that the president\u2019s first midterms saw the House flip, \u201cbecause of a lot of targeted retaliations, from China in particular.\u201d<\/p>\n
The president could still turn things around, says Packard. \u201cIf [Trump] can get some deals done, that\u2019s a positive for him, giving certainty to the economy.\u201d He suggests that this would need to include a baseline tariff lower than 15 per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But Packard mostly sees trouble ahead for the Republicans.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe president himself is deeply unpopular with the American public,\u201d he says. If his agenda and the tariffs stay in place as they are now, \u201cthe president will become less popular, the policy will become less popular, and Republicans therefore will become less popular and there will be substantial pushback.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI can absolutely see the House flipping,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n
National Post<\/p>\n
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com<\/a> and sign up for our newsletters here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON, D.C. \u2014 Politicians in conservative states most affected by U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods \u2014 and Ottawa\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54142,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,36353,1376,36351,44,36352,9257,15634,1971],"class_list":["post-54141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-conservative-states","tag-donald-trump","tag-inu-manak","tag-news","tag-republican-strongholds","tag-republicans","tag-retaliatory-tariffs","tag-white-house"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54141\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}