Markets updateWall Street\u2019s main indexes fell as a surge in crude prices revived inflation fears and the Federal Reserve\u2019s cautious stance on interest rate cuts weighed on sentiment. The rate-sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 index \u2060dropped 0.4%, having \u200bbriefly touched a 10% loss from its all-time intraday high earlier in the session – which is considered correction territory.\u00a0The \u200bDow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.3 points, or 0.20%, at the open \u2060to 46,134.87. The S&P 500 fell 41.6 points, or 0.63%, at \u2060the open to \u200b6,583.12, while \u2060the Nasdaq Composite dropped 281.4 points, \u200cor 1.27%, to 21,871.037 at \u200bthe opening bell.Canada\u2019s main stock index fell to a three-month low. At 10:28 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange\u2019s S&P\/TSX composite index was down 2.1% at 31,650.70. The materials sector led the declines, down more than 7%. Silver miners such as Discovery Silver and Endeavor Silver tumbled more than 11% each, tracking an 8% decline in prices of the white metal.Brent crude briefly rose above $119 per barrel in the morning before pulling back to $110.80, which is still a 3.2% rise from the prior day. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude added 0.7% to $96.09 after Iran intensified its attacks on oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf in response to an Israeli attack on an important Iranian natural gas field.Gold prices dropped over 5%, falling for a seventh consecutive session, as \u2060the Middle \u200bEast conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated.U.S. and Canadian Treasury yields jumped at the front end of the curve on Thursday, as caution stemming from decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank \u2014 against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict \u2014 spilled into the world\u2019s \u2060largest bond market. Markets are now only pricing in 7 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, down from 21 basis points late Wednesday.03\/19\/26 13:02Why is gold cratering? Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni has some thoughts<\/p>\n
– Darcy Keith<\/p>\n
Gold is down about 6% at midday and is now down more than US$700 an ounce since March 2, a couple days after the start of the Middle East conflict. <\/p>\n
There are mounting concerns the war will continue for some time to come. So why isn\u2019t gold – known for being one of the market\u2019s biggest safe haven investments – doing so poorly amid the surge in geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty? <\/p>\n
Recent strength in the U.S. dollar – which tends to move inversely to gold – can explain some of gold\u2019s lack of glitter of late. But that unlikely explains all of it, given the greenback\u2019s moves against major currencies have been relatively rangebound by comparison to the precious metal. <\/p>\n
Veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni offered up some other suggestions on why gold has lost its popularity in a note to clients today.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe always-reliable quick answer is: profit-taking following a meteoric rise. Perhaps investors in the Middle East are selling gold to buy the US dollar, which has strengthened during the war, even though both are considered safe havens. Rising bond yields might also explain gold\u2019s recent meltdown. The probability of further Fed rate cuts is falling as inflation heats up,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cTechnically speaking, gold\u2019s price dropped below a short-term uptrend line this week. The next uptrend support line could be tested closer to $4000. Another technical explanation is that the gold price rose too far, too fast since early last year, jumping above its ascending channel this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are still targeting gold at $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by the end of 2029. However, we are considering lowering our year-end target back to $5,000 if gold continues to defy our expectations that it should be rising on unsettling geopolitical developments, rising inflation, and mounting US government debt.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom a sentiment perspective, the recent drop in GLD\u2019s stock price on high volume suggests panic selling. From a contrarian perspective, that could soon make a bottom in the recent selloff.\u201d<\/p>\n
GLD-A<\/a>, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, is the world\u2019s largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 12:24Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar\u2019s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says<\/p>\n Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% \u2060of Qatar\u2019s \u200bliquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated US$20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy\u2019s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday.<\/p>\n Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar\u2019s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will \u200bsideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five \u200cyears, he said in an interview.<\/p>\n \u201cI never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar would be – Qatar and the region – in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way,\u201d Kaabi said.<\/p>\n Hours earlier Iran had aimed a series of attacks at Gulf oil and gas facilities after Israeli attacks on its \u200cown gas infrastructure.<\/p>\n State-owned QatarEnergy \u200bwill have to declare force \u200cmajeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and \u200bChina due to the two damaged trains, Kaabi said.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 12:14Trump says Netanyahu agreed not to attack Iran\u2019s energy fields<\/p>\n U.S. \u200cPresident Donald Trump said \u2060on \u200bThursday he had told Benjamin \u200bNetanyahu \u200cnot to attack Iranian energy \u200cfields, \u200badding \u200cthat \u200bthe Israeli Prime Minister \u2060had \u2060agreed \u200bnot to.<\/p>\n \u201cI told him, \u2018Don\u2019t do that\u2019, and \u2060he won\u2019t do that,\u201d he \u2060told reporters \u200bin the \u2060Oval Office.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 12:12U.S. front-end yields rise sharply as Fed rate cuts priced out<\/p>\n U.S. Treasury yields jumped at the front end of the curve on Thursday, as caution stemming from decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank \u2014 against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict \u2014 spilled into the world\u2019s \u2060largest bond market.<\/p>\n The \u200bmoves prompted investors to price out expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, based on LSEG estimates. U.S. rate futures pointed to just 7 basis points (bps) of easing from the Fed this year, way down from the 21 bps of easing seen late on Wednesday. There was also no rate cut priced for the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n The U.S. central bank, \u200bin its forecast released on Wednesday following its two-day policy meeting, has pencilled in a \u200crate cut of 25 basis points later this year and another in 2027. <\/p>\n The two-year yield, which is typically most responsive to changes in expectations for inflation and interest rates, hit 3.96%, its highest since August 2025, and was last up 11.9 bps to 3.866%. On the longer end of the curve, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.2 bps \u200bto 4.279%, after earlier hitting its highest \u200csince late August.<\/p>\n Analysts said the rise in Treasury yields accelerated after the Bank of England\u2019s \u200bMonetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs unchanged, citing inflation risks linked \u2060to the conflict. Some policymakers even raised the prospect of further rate increases.<\/p>\n At the same time, the European \u2060Central Bank held its key interest rate steady and warned that the war in Iran was clouding the outlook for growth and inflation in the euro zone.<\/p>\n The \u200bBoE and ECB decisions \u201creminded Treasury investors that, as much as the Fed was signaling patience yesterday, it\u2019s really possible that central banks could prioritize inflation over everything else in this type of supply-shock scenario,\u201d said Will Compernolle, macro strategist, at FHN Financial in Chicago.<\/p>\n Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the environment was subject to unusually high uncertainty as policymakers take stock of the impact of the war on Iran. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday in the \u20603.50%-3.75% target range and projected higher inflation, as well as steady unemployment.<\/p>\n Inflation swaps, a gauge of the outlook for future consumer prices, spiked to a six-month peak of roughly 3.3% in one-year maturities. This suggested that investors believe that the consumer price index \u2060will average more than 3% over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.4% \u200byear-on-year CPI reading for February.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 11:23U.S. objectives in Iran have not changed, Hegseth says<\/p>\n U.S. \u200cDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday the United States\u2019 objectives in the war against Iran have not changed since strikes started on February 28.<\/p>\n The United States has carried out strikes against 7,000 targets inside Iran, and hit more than 40 Iranian mine-laying vessels \u2060and 11 \u200bsubmarines.<\/p>\n \u201cOur objectives, given directly from our America-first president, remain exactly what they were on day one,\u201d Hegseth told reporters.<\/p>\n \u201cThese are not the media\u2019s objectives, not Iran\u2019s objectives, not new objectives. Our objectives – unchanged, on target and on plan,\u201d Hegseth added. He spent several minutes in his opening statement criticizing the press.<\/p>\n Hegseth told reporters that the objectives remained to destroy Iran\u2019s missile launchers, \u200cas well as its defense industrial base and navy and to never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n Reuters reported on Wednesday that President Donald Trump\u2019s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran.<\/p>\n Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait \u200cof Hormuz, a \u200bmission that would be accomplished primarily through \u200cair and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran\u2019s \u200bshoreline, sources told Reuters.<\/p>\n In the same briefing, General Dan Caine, the \u2060chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. military remained on track to achieve its \u2060objectives and that the United States was striking deeper into Iranian territory every day.<\/p>\n But Caine acknowledged Iran still retained some missile capabilities.<\/p>\n \u201cThey came into \u200bthis fight with a lot of weapons,\u201d Caine said.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 11:16AutoCanada shares slammed after analyst downgrades and lacklustre earnings <\/p>\n – Darcy Keith<\/p>\n Shares in AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T<\/a>) plunged nearly 20% in Toronto trading this morning after disappointing fourth-quarter results that had at least two analysts downgrading the stock. <\/p>\n National Bank analyst Maxim Sytchev downgraded his rating to \u201csector perform\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d while cutting his price target to C$24 from C$29. Canaccord Genuity analyst Luke Hannan downgraded his rating to a \u201chold\u201d from a \u201cbuy\u201d and slashed his target all the way to C$22 from C$42.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we were expecting a soft quarter, the magnitude of the miss vs. our and consensus\u2019 expectations is likely enough to shake investors\u2019 confidence in ACQ\u2019s ability to generate operating leverage off of a lower cost base in 2026 and beyond,\u201d Mr. Hannan said.<\/p>\n Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $32.7 million was well short of Mr. Hannan\u2019s Street-low $41.7 million forecast, and consensus\u2019 $44.6 million.<\/p>\n Read more in my Upgrades and Downgrades report<\/a> today, which also includes the latest analyst actions on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. and Boyd Group Services Inc.<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 10:27Rosenberg Research: Four scenarios for the Middle East conflict – and what it means for portfolio positioning <\/p>\n – Darcy Keith<\/p>\n Rosenberg Research senior economist Robert Embree is assigning odds to various scenarios in the Middle East.<\/p>\n \u201cScenario 1: A Decisive U.S.-Israeli Win (20% chance) \u2014 regime collapse now looks unlikely in the next four weeks, but is still possibleScenario 2:\u00a0Trump Finds a Way to Back Down\u00a0(50% chance) \u2014 the war ends in four to six weeks with a negotiated settlement, or more likely a \u201cDeclared American Victory\u201d without achieving war aimsScenario 3: Messy Intermediate Conflict (20% chance) \u2014 the war lasts one to three months, and both sides claim they are achieving their goalsScenario 4: Escalation and Extended Disruption (10% chance) \u2014 the war lasts three to nine months, with the Red Sea also becoming affected by Houthi attacks. The fourth scenario involves an almost certain recession in all advanced countries, where growth effects on consumer spending would eventually dominate inflation effects (with a lag)”<\/p>\n Mr. Embree, in a note to clients of the research firm founded by David Rosenberg, predicted oil and gas markets will not fully normalize under any of these scenarios. <\/p>\n \u201cAn absolute minimum conflict premium of $5-$10 will remain in WTI and Brent prices in the second half of the year, and probably more like $15-$20, from lost Iranian supply and from tail risks. Long-term, this will force a global re-orientation of supply chains and energy relationships,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n As for stock markets, \u201cequities will continue to see dispersed effects (Energy, Defense, select Utilities benefiting, while cyclicals and most rate-sensitives decline) \u2014 but are net lower in all four scenarios.\u201c<\/p>\n The bottom line? \u201cIn all of these scenarios, we think markets are slightly underestimating the negative growth effects (because downside risks to equities will reduce the equity wealth effect, which is underappreciated as a key support for growth). We also think markets are overstating the inflation effects, because the inflation shocks will be \u201ctruly\u201d transitory. Unlike in 2022, none of the burst of inflation is being accommodated through monetary or fiscal policy. Defensive positioning is required in any scenario.”<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 10:17Unexpected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims signals stable labour market<\/p>\n The number of Americans filing new applications for \u200bunemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions \u200cand a rebound in job growth in March.<\/p>\n The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy\u2019s health, showed no impact yet on the jobs market from the dragging war in the Middle East, which has sent global oil and domestic gasoline prices soaring. \u2060Economists have \u200bwarned that higher energy prices and tightening financial conditions could undermine consumer and business spending and be a drag on the labour market.<\/p>\n \u201cProducers are unlikely to fire staff while there is a strong chance the jump in prices is temporary,\u201d said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. \u201cBut elevated uncertainty, the recent tightening of financial conditions and high borrowing costs for small businesses will continue to weigh on hiring.\u201d<\/p>\n Initial \u200bclaims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the \u200cweek ended March 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 10:07Citi\u2019s surprise index shows longest upside run since financial crisis, awaits war impact <\/p>\n Global economic growth has continued to outperform expectations for 14 straight months \u2014 just as the war in Iran fuels fresh concerns about energy prices and \u2060global stability \u2014 \u200bputting the world economy on track for its longest run of upside surprises since the 2008-09 financial crisis.<\/p>\n Citi\u2019s popular economic surprise metric, which measures how economic data in the prior three months differs from consensus forecasts, has been \u200bin positive territory since January 2025, suggesting that economists \u200coverestimated hits from geopolitical turmoil and U.S. tariff hikes.<\/p>\n On Thursday it is set to overtake its post-Covid-19 streak, making this its second longest on record, behind the 2009-2011 period.<\/p>\n The index does not yet reflect the impact of the war in the Middle East, which \u200chas pushed \u200boil prices up and \u200crenewed growth worries and will take time to feed into economic data.<\/p>\n \u201cThere \u200bis no reason for it to be consistently \u2060positive, surprises are normally pretty random, and expectations should adjust to past \u2060surprises,\u201d said Kristjan Kasikov, global head of Citi FX Quant Investor Solutions.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fact that this \u200bhas not happened over the past year, means economists have been too stubborn in not adjusting their expectations for better than expected growth,\u201d said Kasikov, who created the index 20 years ago.<\/p>\n \u201cThey expected the fallout from trade uncertainty and geopolitics to weigh on growth, and that did \u2060not happen.\u201d<\/p>\n He said export and industrial production figures had been particular contributors to the outperformance.<\/p>\n U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs on U.S. imports early in 2025. While they have been reduced from the highest levels, which shocked markets when they were announced in April, they remain relatively high.<\/p>\n Massive \u2060investment in artificial intelligence and an expansionary fiscal \u200bpolicy from many governments have bolstered growth.<\/p>\n Still, analysts expect the oil price surge to \u2060weigh in the months ahead, especially if higher costs spark a broader surge in inflation and force central \u200cbanks to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n Kasikov said for most of 2025 data showed global \u200bgrowth was decelerating, but by less than economists had expected. In the fourth quarter this shifted and growth indicators began to accelerate, and by more than expectations.<\/p>\n He also said this could explain why global equities performed well \u200bin 2025.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 10:03World trade growth set to slow to 1.9% this year, Iran war may weigh more, says WTO<\/p>\n Growth in world trade in goods will slow down markedly to 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 \u2060and could \u200bdecelerate even more if the Middle East war continues to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport, a World Trade Organization report said on Thursday.<\/p>\n Last year a surge in artificial intelligence-related trade and goods front-loading to avoid a slew of U.S. tariffs enabled a better-than-expected growth \u200bperformance. While global trade remains resilient, buoyed by trade in AI-related \u200cproducts, the growth forecast is under pressure from the expanding U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.<\/p>\n If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 due to the conflict, global trade in goods could slow further to 1.4%, WTO economists said.<\/p>\n A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz \u200cby Iran, choking one-third \u200bof fertilizer urea imports, risks \u200chitting major producers like India, Thailand, Brazil, fuelling food security risks, the WTO report said. Sustained high \u200benergy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off global merchandise \u2060growth, with Asian and European fuel-reliant importers hit hardest.<\/p>\n Services trade also faces a 0.7-point \u2060drop from growth forecasts of 4.8% to 4.1% due to shipping and flights disruption, the report found. Last year \u200bservices trade grew by 5.3%.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:54ECB keeps rates on hold as Iran war clouds outlook<\/p>\n The European Central Bank kept its key interest \u200crate at 2% on Thursday and warned that the war in Iran was clouding the outlook for growth and inflation in the euro zone.<\/p>\n \u201cThe war in the Middle East … will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices,\u201d the ECB said. \u201cIts medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n The euro zone\u2019s central bank kept its options open, however, saying it was monitoring the war and its impact on \u200binflation, both including and excluding energy prices, and growth.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Governing Council is well positioned to \u200cnavigate this uncertainty,\u201d the ECB said. \u201cInflation has been at around the 2% target, longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters.\u201d<\/p>\n Financial markets now expect euro zone inflation to climb close to 4% over the next year, then take years to return to the ECB\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n Traders are pricing in two or three \u200crate hikes by \u200bDecember, even as most economists still see no \u200cchange, betting that the ECB would not tolerate another war-fuelled spike in inflation after being stung by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine four years ago.<\/p>\n With Thursday\u2019s \u200bdecision, the ECB left its policy rate at 2%, roughly matching February inflation, which \u2060pre-dates the first attacks on Iran on February 28.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:50Aluminum slides 8%, copper hits three-month low as speculators run for cover on Iran war fallout<\/p>\n Aluminum \u200bprices tumbled 8% on Thursday as speculators scrambled \u200cto liquidate bullish positions while copper sunk to a three-month low on worries that surging oil prices will hit global growth at the same time the market is \u2060swamped \u200bwith plentiful inventories.<\/p>\n Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange tumbled as much as 8.4%, paring losses to 7.2% at US$3,154.50 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading.<\/p>\n Prices of the lightweight metal, used in transport, construction and \u200bpackaging, had climbed in recent weeks due \u200cto worries about supply following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, a major producer.<\/p>\n Speculators who were betting on further price gains have had to liquidate their positions as fears about the impact of the war on the global economy swept through \u200cglobal financial markets.<\/p>\n Options \u200bhedging activity contributed to \u200cthe sharp fall in aluminium, with a drop through the $3,300 level triggering \u200bbig volumes, said Alastair Munro, senior base metals \u2060strategist at broker Marex.<\/p>\n LME copper slid \u200b3.8% to $11,925 a ton in official activity after dropping to $11,754, its lowest since December 19.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat higher oil prices do is curb demand across the economy, and if you curb demand that just means less metal being used,\u201d said Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer in \u2060Zurich.<\/p>\n Traders also \u2060warily eyed the growing pile of copper building up in exchange-certified warehouses, with LME inventories having shot \u200cup 135% so far this year to the highest since August 2019.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:36Wall Street opens lower as oil prices gain; Russell 2000 slides<\/p>\n Wall Street\u2019s main indexes opened lower on Thursday as crude prices soared on intensifying Middle East hostilities, reviving inflation worries that have prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n The rate-sensitive small-caps Russell 2000 index dropped 10 per cent from its all-time intraday high.<\/p>\n The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.3 points, or 0.20 per cent, at the open to 46,134.87. The S&P 500 fell 41.6 points, or 0.63 per cent, at the open to 6,583.12, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 281.4 points, or 1.27 per cent, to 21,871.037 at the opening bell.<\/p>\n \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:35TSX opens lower as escalation in Mideast conflict rattles markets<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s main stock index opened lower on Thursday as an escalation in the Middle East conflict following attacks on energy infrastructure in the region sapped risk appetite, while miners slid tracking metal prices lower.<\/p>\n At 09:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange\u2019s S&P\/TSX composite index was down 1.6 per cent at 31,798.87. <\/p>\n \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:16Canadian dollar strengthens, benchmark yield climbs<\/p>\n The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Thursday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed. <\/p>\n The loonie was trading 0 per cent higher at C$1.3725 to the greenback, or 72.86 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3715 to 1.3748. <\/p>\n Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 3.7 basis points to 3.491 per cent. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt rose to 4.3024 per cent. <\/p>\n U.S. April crude futures rose 71 cents to $97.03 a barrel on Thursday.<\/p>\n \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:12Gold extends losing streak on expectations of tighter policy from central banksOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Gold coins are pictured at a local shop in Bonn, Germany. Gold prices dropped over 5 per cent on Thursday, falling for a seventh consecutive session.Jana Rodenbusch\/Reuters<\/p>\n Gold prices dropped over 5 per cent on Thursday, falling for a seventh consecutive session, as the Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated.<\/p>\n Spot gold fell 5.5 per cent to $4,552.38 per ounce by 8:46 a.m. ET (12:46 p.m. GMT), its lowest since early February.<\/p>\n U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 7 per cent to $4,554.70.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u201cGold is now a very widely held position for institutional investors and that has been on the back of the debasement trade over the last year. But the foundations of that trade are now weakening,\u201d said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.<\/p>\n \u201cFor the near term, we continue to see risk to the downside. There is a very substantial amount of room for gold to sell off while maintaining its bull market era trend support,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Gold is prized as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical turmoil, but because it does not generate interest, it tends to lose appeal in periods when rates are high.<\/p>\n \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 09:05Batteries and energy storage will be the big winners from data centre power demand<\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Morgan Stanley analysts are big believers in new sodium ion batteries and energy storage systems broadly. The following is from Morgan Stanley\u2019s morning research summary (it\u2019s written more clearly than the report itself).<\/p>\n \u201cMS Research Analysts Jack Lu and Dave Arcaro and MS Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd highlight that the quest to power the AI boom has significantly re-rated the global power value chain, creating a market worth over $1.5tr in the past two years. While power capacity is facing supply chain constraints across the board, the team believes the next opportunity will be in energy storage systems (ESS), as investment in AI infrastructure continues to accelerate and inference workloads inflect, shifting the focus on AI from energy availability to power volatility, system flexibility, and time-to-power. The team adds that the ESS cost advantage can be seen not only in its levelized cost of energy (LCOE), but more importantly in the ability of electricity inventory to defer or downsize the high opportunity costs of traditional capital-intensive power infrastructure. They believe this time-to-power flexibility and infrastructure deferral value meaningfully enhance the economic case for storage. They highlight that battery costs will likely continue to evolve with the coming of the sodium-ion era, cheaper and safer, with the ability to deliver steady energy at low temperatures. The team forecasts global ESS annual incremental deployment from data centers at ~321GWh by 2030, 169GWh in the US, 85GWh in China, and 68GWh in ROW, vs. a global power market utility scale of 325GWh in 2025, which they also expect to increase at a 22 per cent CAGR by 2030, driven by the economic energy transition. Overall, the team expects a 30 per cent CAGR in global ESS annual incremental deployment by 2030. They call out Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (300750 CS OW, CNY530 PT), Tesla (Covered by MS Research Analyst Andrew Percoco, EW, $415 PT), LG Energy Solution (Covered by MS Research Analyst Young Suk Shin, 373220 KP EW, KRW380000 PT), Fluence (EW, $16 PT), and BYD Company Limited (Covered by MS Research Analyst Tim Hsiao, 002594 CS, CNY125 PT) as high-conviction stock beneficiaries.\u201d<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 08:37Investors asking the wrong question about energy stocks<\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Citi analyst Alastair Syme thinks portfolio managers are asking the wrong question regarding oil and gas stocks.<\/p>\n \u201cThe most-asked question we are getting is \u201cwhat oil price are the stocks discounting\u201d? While this is an understandable question given the sharp rally in Energy equities over the past three weeks on the back of oil market disruption, we challenge the central premise behind the question that energy equities are simply a proxy for oil prices. Remember that energy equities outperformed (falling) oil prices by 30 per cent in 2025. In our mind, the better valuation reference is that IOC energy equities are only pricing +0.5 per cent p.a. terminal growth, below the 1.4 per cent p.a. trend growth in global oil and gas demand. This gap that suggests market positioning still fails to recognize the criticality of oil and gas to the global economy which, if anything, is a relationship that has been acutely reminded of over the past few weeks.”<\/p>\n In a roundabout way, this report reminded me that tobacco stocks were the top performers in U.S. markets during the 20th century. A sector that generalist institutional managers would rather not own that continues to churn out profits. <\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 08:25Citi strategist highlights these stocks with improving profit margins<\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n A very interesting report from Citi analyst Drew Pettit screens markets for companies with improving profitability that is not dependent on financial engineering,<\/p>\n \u201cOur ongoing fundamental narrative across our U.S. Equity Strategy platform has been operational improvement has mattered more post-pandemic, especially against a backdrop of increasing trade uncertainty and technological innovation. To express this, we created the ROE Trend Baskets which focus on forward ROE improvement driven by improving margins and higher total asset turnover, not financial engineering. Essentially, the second derivative [change in the rate of change] of quality, not the factor itself, creates a more differentiated exposure that has become our flagship thematic. In this report, we rebalance the baskets, highlight their use cases, and dive into underlying exposures, macro connections, fundamental details, and risks\u201d<\/p>\n Stocks that screened most positive include DoorDash Inc. (DASH-Q<\/a>), News Corp. (NWSA-Q<\/a>), Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG-Q<\/a>), Celsius Holdings (CELH-Q<\/a>), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO-Q<\/a>), International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF-N<\/a>), Stanley Black and Decker Inc. (SWK-N<\/a>), Newmont Corp. (NGT-T<\/a>), Amcor PLC, Boeing Co. (AMCR-N<\/a>), Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. (EL-N<\/a>) and Medtronic PLC (MDT-N<\/a>). <\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 08:18Bank of England holds main interest rate at 3.75% as Iran war jolts inflation expectationsOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025.Toby Melville\/Reuters<\/p>\n The Bank of England has held its main interest rate at 3.75 per cent in the wake of the oil and gas price hikes following the start of the Iran war.<\/p>\n The decision Thursday was widely anticipated after the United States and Israel started bombing Iran less than three weeks ago.<\/p>\n Until then, it was a seen as nearly certainty that the Bank of England would cut interest rates as inflation in the U.K. was expected to fall towards the 2 per cent target in the coming months.<\/p>\n The Iran war has done much to upend those predictions as well as the wider global economic forecasts, not least in how it will affect prices.<\/p>\n The longer the Iran war and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz go on, the greater the economic pain will be. A fifth of the world\u2019s crude oil goes through the strait.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada also held interest rates and cautioned about the increasingly uncertain outlook.<\/p>\n Keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been can help keep a lid on inflation. High interest rates weigh on the economy by making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow, thereby bearing down on economic activity and consequently price pressures.<\/p>\n Read the full story here.<\/a><\/p>\n – The Associated Press<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:39Accenture forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates as clients delay enterprise spendingOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n The logo of Irish services and consulting company Accenture is seen at an temporary office during the World Economic Forum 2022 in Davos, Switzerland.ARND WIEGMANN\/Reuters<\/p>\n Accenture (ACN-N<\/a>) forecast quarterly revenue below estimates on Thursday, as clients remain cautious on spending on large IT transformation projects amid an uncertain economic environment. Shares of the Dublin, Ireland-based company were down more than 3 per cent in premarket trading.<\/p>\n The company has been navigating a challenging economic environment, as clients delay large digital transformation projects and prioritize cost control and short-term initiatives. Accenture expects a 1-per-cent revenue hit for fiscal 2026 from a slowdown in its federal business as agencies are reining in spending and redirecting budgets. Analysts have said AI should support growth over the long term, but weak demand due to cautious client spending is unlikely to fully recover before 2028.<\/p>\n The company expects fiscal third-quarter revenue between US$18.35-billion and US$19.00-billion, with the midpoint slightly below analysts\u2019 average estimate of US$18.72-billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.<\/p>\n Accenture said its forecast reflects the company\u2019s best view of the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n The company\u2019s revenue rose 8.3 per cent to US$18.04-billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of US$17.84-billion.<\/p>\n Accenture reported a profit of US$2.93 per share, compared with US$2.82 per share in the same quarter last year.<\/p>\n New bookings, a metric that measures future revenue based on contracts, rose 6 per cent to US$22.1-billion in the second quarter.<\/p>\n Read the full story here.<\/a><\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:55Domestic bank stocks growing strongly, still expensive<\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Royal Bank analyst Darko Mihelic outlines the strong growth in the domestic bank sector yet also shows how the sector is expensive relative to history.<\/p>\n \u201cIn Q1\/26, the median core EPS for the large Canadian banks we cover increased ~12 per cent QoQ and ~17 per cent YoY. Our 2026 core EPS estimates increased for all the banks in the group: we modelled higher stage 3 (impaired) provision for credit losses (PCLs) and increased our estimates for Canada P&C, Capital Markets, International P&C for most banks in our coverage; our model updates to Wealth Management were mixed. We expect average core EPS growth of ~17 per cent in 2026 and ~10 per cent in 2027 \u2026 as of March 16, the Canadian bank index traded at 13.2x on a forward P\/E basis, above its long-term historical averages (Exhibit A14). On a P\/B basis, the Canadian bank index traded at 2.01x, above the 10-year average of 1.64x (Exhibit A17). YTD as of March 16, the Canadian bank index\u2019s total return was 1.0 per cent versus the U.S. bank index\u2019s negative total return of 11.1 per cent YTD.”<\/p>\n Mr. Mihelic is sketching out a recipe for volatility here. If bank stocks are expensive, and the earnings growth rate is set to slow meaningfully in 2027, this is not the backdrop of a rally. <\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:52Brent crude nears $115 after Iran attacks key energy facilities in the GulfOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n An employee refuels a car at a gas station in Kuwait City on March 10. The Iran war has sent oil prices soaring.YASSER AL-ZAYYAT\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Global energy prices soared Thursday after Iran attacked two oil refineries in Kuwait and a key natural gas facility in Qatar that can supply one-fifth of the world\u2019s liquified natural gas.<\/p>\n The attacks added to fears the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic may be longer and more extensive than feared, with lasting damage to oil and gas production.<\/p>\n Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 6 per cent to $113.77 per barrel, up from less than $73 per barrel on the eve of the war. U.S. benchmark crude was less affected by the latest attacks in the Middle East, rising less than 1 per cent to $96.26 per barrel.<\/p>\n The European TTF benchmark for natural gas prices traded 17 per cent higher on Thursday and has doubled in the past month.<\/p>\n The Iranian attack hit the Ras Laffan terminal for shipping out liquefied natural gas in Qatar. Qatar normally supplies some 20 per cent of the world\u2019s consumption of LNG, which can be carried by ship. The facility shut down after a drone attack. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most tanker traffic also left the gas with nowhere to go.<\/p>\n If the disruptions from Iran\u2019s attacks on its Gulf Arab neighbours\u2019 energy infrastructure keep oil and gas prices high for long, they could create a debilitating wave of inflation for the global economy.<\/p>\n Markets on Wall Street slipped before the opening bell. Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each fell a 0.1 per cent, while Nasdaq futures dipped 0.3 per cent.<\/p>\n – The Associated Press<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:48Canadian dollar weakens against U.S. greenback<\/p>\n \u2013 S.R. Slobodian<\/p>\n The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart.<\/p>\n The day range on the loonie was 72.73 US cents to 72.94 US cents in early trading. The Canadian dollar was down about 0.42 per cent against the greenback over the past month.<\/p>\n The U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of currencies, rose 0.05 per cent to 100.14.<\/p>\n The euro advanced 0.17 per cent to US$1.1472. The British pound gained 0.17 per cent to US$1.3279.<\/p>\n In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was last up at 4.273 per cent.<\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:48Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today<\/p>\n \u2013 S.R. Slobodian<\/p>\n Global markets slid after a major escalation<\/a> in the U.S. and Israel\u2019s war with Iran rattled investors.<\/p>\n Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed sharply down yesterday in the wake of hawkish central bank commentary.<\/p>\n TSX futures followed sentiment lower.<\/p>\n In Canada, investors are getting results from Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T<\/a>). <\/p>\n On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA-N<\/a>), Accenture PLC (ACN-N<\/a>), FedEx Corp. (FDX-N<\/a>) and Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI-N<\/a>).<\/p>\n \u201cThis latest escalation feels like \u200ba turning point for markets because the conflict is no longer just about \u2060military headlines or Strait of Hormuz closure,\u201d said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is \u2060now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system. What is unsettling markets now is the growing stagflation risk… It means this is no longer just \u200ba geopolitical story but a macro one.”<\/p>\n Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 2.15 per cent in morning trading. Britain\u2019s FTSE 100 fell 2.13 per cent, Germany\u2019s DAX dropped 2.47 per cent and France\u2019s CAC 40 gave back 1.81 per cent.<\/p>\n In Asia, Japan\u2019s Nikkei closed 3.38 per cent lower, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng fell 2.02 per cent.<\/p>\n Read more updates from before the bell.<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/19\/26 07:44Why Royal Bank is top bank pick at Scotiabank <\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Scotiabank analyst Mike Rizvanovic is recommending Royal Bank to clients.<\/p>\n \u201cOUR TAKE: Positive. With the recent run-up in the Capital Markets business that by most measures was at record levels in Q1-F26 across the peer group, investors remain concerned about a potential deceleration, which based on historical periods of elevated performance, could be meaningful. If a deceleration phase for the business does in fact materialize in the coming quarters, we believe RY is the best defensive name to own among the large banks as our analysis of longer-term trends shows RY to have the lowest volatility in trading revenue, and among the lowest volatility in other revenue lines (M&A advisory and securities commissions), segment earnings and PTPP earnings. We believe that favorable dynamic highlights the bank\u2019s more diversified Capital Markets business and scale advantage relative to peers. Further supporting our increasingly positive bias on RY is the stock\u2019s recent underperformance (-5 per cent YTD vs. a peer avg of +3 per cent), which has reduced the bank\u2019s relative premium to 8 per cent, below its long-term average of 11 per cent, and we note that RY\u2019s premium tends to increase in times of market uncertainty, which we believe describes the current environment. We reiterate our SO rating on RY and see a compelling entry point for investors.\u201d<\/p>\n