{"id":548079,"date":"2026-03-20T02:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T02:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/548079\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T02:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T02:37:08","slug":"the-economy-stops-experts-chilling-fuel-prediction-as-australias-low-reserves-are-exposed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/548079\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018The economy stops\u2019: Expert\u2019s chilling fuel prediction as Australia\u2019s low reserves are exposed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Australia\u2019s economy will grind to a halt and supermarket shelves will be left empty if the nation runs out of diesel within the next month, an economist warns. <\/p>\n<p>Macrobusiness Chief Economist Leith van Onselen said Australia is uniquely exposed to a fuel crisis because it holds very low reserves and imports most of its refined fuels from Asia.<\/p>\n<p>He said Australia\u2019s fuel storage levels were the lowest in the developed world \u2014 so low that they breached the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) requirement that members must hold 90 days of net oil imports.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve completely dropped the ball on fuel storage,\u201d Mr van Onselen told news.com.au on Thursday. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAustralia is dangerously exposed to running out of diesel, which literally powers the economy across mining, freight, agriculture, essential services and backup power generation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we run out of diesel, the economy stops, and supermarket shelves go bare.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Albanese government has insisted that fuel shipments to Australia have continued as normal and that the country\u2019s fuel supply is \u201csecure\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>But Mr van Onselen said Australia was particularly vulnerable to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint effectively closed since war broke out between US-Israeli forces and Iran on February 28.<\/p>\n<p>This is because Australia imports refined fuels from South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and China \u2014 the countries hardest hit by the strait\u2019s closure. <\/p>\n<p>China imports about half of its oil through the strait, while at least 70 per cent of Japan\u2019s oil also passes through the route. <\/p>\n<p>Australia was once far less reliant on imported fuel, running seven oil refineries in the early 2000s. <\/p>\n<p>Nowadays, it operates just two refineries in Victoria and Queensland. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cMost of Australia\u2019s liquid fuel supplies come from refineries in Asia. Yet, 80 per cent of the oil volumes that flowed through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia,\u201d Mr van Onselen said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI really can\u2019t see how or why Asian refineries are going to be allowed to ship fuel to Australia when home country supply is at risk.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis raises the likelihood that Australia will lose a much larger share of its fuel supply than the 15 per cent of global supply offline.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>China has reportedly already instructed its oil refineries to halt exports, leading Energy Minister Chris Bowen to reassure the public on Tuesday that <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news.com.au\/finance\/money\/costs\/major-fuel-retailers-asked-to-meet-with-accc-amid-price-gouging-fears\/news-story\/739a41f01f426bc8e409722101d454bb\" data-tgev=\"event119\" data-tgev-container=\"bodylink\" data-tgev-order=\"739a41f01f426bc8e409722101d454bb\" data-tgev-label=\"finance\" data-tgev-metric=\"ev\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cevery ship\u201d carrying fuel to Australia had so far arrived<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, under increasing pressure as petrol prices skyrocket, has <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news.com.au\/national\/politics\/anthony-albanese-appoints-fuel-supply-coordinator-as-iran-war-deepens\/news-story\/6206eb750cf11653a40d5c664fabd681?amp\" data-tgev=\"event119\" data-tgev-container=\"bodylink\" data-tgev-order=\"6206eb750cf11653a40d5c664fabd681\" data-tgev-label=\"national\" data-tgev-metric=\"ev\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">appointed a fuel supply task force co-ordinator <\/a>and held an urgent national cabinet meeting with state and territory leaders on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>How much fuel does Australia really have?<\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s fuel stocks are often reported in terms of \u201cdays of cover\u201d: the number of days the current supply could meet national consumption at normal rates.<\/p>\n<p>The Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO), set by the federal government, requires fuel companies to hold a minimum volume of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel.<\/p>\n<p>At the latest reporting on March 10, gasoline stocks covered 37 days, diesel 30 days and kerosene (jet fuel) 29 days.<\/p>\n<p>But the MSO is largely an accounting measure. It doesn\u2019t represent actual, refined fuel stored in tanks and ready to be used by consumers. <\/p>\n<p>It includes \u201cstocks on water in Australia\u2019s exclusive economic zone and some crude oil and unfinished stocks at refineries\u201d, according to the MSO\u2019s methodology.<\/p>\n<p>Mr van Onselen worried Australia\u2019s fuel stocks would quickly dry up as Asian countries began to prioritise domestic demand. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe nightmare scenario is that resource nationalism overruns the oil market globally,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The economist argued policymakers had \u201cstood by silently\u201d as the nation shut down its fuel refineries, and left Australia \u201chighly exposed\u201d by ignoring IEA requirements. <\/p>\n<p>The MSO is next due to report fuel stocks on Friday. <\/p>\n<p>PM says panic buying is the biggest risk<\/p>\n<p>Speaking in Hobart this week, the Prime Minister said that panic buying itself, not a shortage of fuel, was creating problems.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is not less fuel in Australia today than there was three weeks ago,\u2019\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEvery single ship that was due to land here has landed here. There is not less supply. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is has been an issue of increased demand. A doubling of demand, and in some cases much more than doubling in areas, that can mean there are shortages in some areas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>PM\u2019s \u2018message to service stations\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Pressed during a media conference on Wednesday, Mr Albanese declared that \u201cwe do have fuel security\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMy message to service stations which are overcharging is that the ACCC will take action against any inappropriate behaviour,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMy message to Australians as well is to not take more fuel than you need. That is how you can help. Think of others.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He went on to say that Australia has \u201cfuel security \u2026 but we need to be sensible about these issues and that\u2019s my message\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut there\u2019s no place for any company to try to take advantage of this to increase their profits at the expense of Australians,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Woolworths weighs in <\/p>\n<p>Woolworths chief Amanda Bardwell says the retail giant is not facing any immediate fuel shortages or issues.<\/p>\n<p>But she\u2019s called on the government to ensure retailers are kept in the loop in real time to any developments that could hit supply chains.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re less than three weeks into this situation,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we want to make sure is that we\u2019re responding now, we\u2019re thinking about what this means in the midterm and we\u2019re also focused on it for the long-term. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs we look forward right now, we\u2019re not concerned.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s economy will grind to a halt and supermarket shelves will be left empty if the nation runs&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":548080,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[213363,40625,4587,60722,5806,161249,2840,18614,213351,45,49,48,213340,95,211404,213355,18577,46,213356,213361,213350,213346,213342,213341,213360,213339,213345,213352,213364,213343,213344,213347,5897,2454,119202,213358,3845,213354,1671,5185,18600,213357,213348,213349,202965,213353,19603,213365,213362,3849,18262,43149,212183,213359,181,18581],"class_list":["post-548079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-accounting-measure","tag-agence-france-presse","tag-america","tag-anthony-albanese","tag-asia","tag-asian-countries","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-backup-power-generation","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-chilling-fuel-prediction","tag-china","tag-chris-bowen","tag-developed-nations","tag-eastern-asia","tag-economy","tag-economy-grinds","tag-economy-stops","tag-fuel-companies","tag-fuel-crisis","tag-fuel-crisis-response","tag-fuel-crisissky","tag-fuel-refineries","tag-fuel-stocks","tag-fuel-storage-levels","tag-fuel-supply","tag-gasoline-stocks","tag-global-supply-offline","tag-harrison-christian","tag-home-country-supply","tag-iran","tag-japan","tag-jet-fuel","tag-liquid-fuel-supplies","tag-malaysia","tag-nightmare-scenario","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-oceania","tag-oil-refineries","tag-oil-stockpiles","tag-oil-volumes","tag-petrol-prices","tag-prioritise-domestic-demand","tag-queensland","tag-refined-fuels","tag-resource-nationalism","tag-singapore","tag-south-korea","tag-south-eastern-asia","tag-southern-asia","tag-supermarket-shelves","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-victoria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548079"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548079\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}