Since the U.S. and Israel began conducting military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, Wall Street’s major indexes have swooned. At the same time, crude oil prices have skyrocketed<\/a>.<\/p>\n Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n While this dynamic clearly has investors on edge, 40 years of history covering this exact scenario point to a huge move to come in stocks.<\/p>\n Patience has proved profitable when oil prices soar<\/p>\n Energy supply chain disruption is the primary concern<\/a> associated with the Iran war. Following initial attacks, Iran virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil exports. Approximately 20% of the world’s liquid petroleum travels through the Strait of Hormuz daily. If this supply is constrained, the law of supply and demand states that the price of this in-demand good should rise — and rise it has!<\/p>\n West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices<\/a> have skyrocketed in the wake of this conflict, sparking concerns in the U.S. about higher energy prices, a potential uptick in the prevailing inflation rate<\/a>, and the possibility that the Fed will consider interest rate hikes down the road.<\/p>\n But when oil price shocks have previously occurred, they’ve almost always been a buy signal for investors.<\/p>\n The S&P 500 has averaged +24% in the 12 months after an oil shock.<\/p>\n Crude prices have surged 20% in 48 hours just 8 times in the last 40 years.<\/p>\n Stocks were up in 7 of 8 instances.<\/p>\n History favors the bulls. pic.twitter.com\/0jir405fq6<\/a><\/p>\n — Phil Rosen (@philrosenn) March 13, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n According to journalist and Opening Bell Daily co-founder Phil Rosen via a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), crude oil prices have surged by at least 20% over a two-day period on eight occasions since 1986, including the latest move. The S&P 500 was higher one year later following six of these seven price shocks.<\/p>\n What’s even more noteworthy is the magnitude of gains for the benchmark index following crude oil price shocks. On average, the S&P 500 was higher by 24% one year after a 20% or greater two-day surge in oil prices.<\/p>\n While the past can’t guarantee what’s to come with 100% accuracy, 40 years of history clearly point to a significant move higher in equities over the next year.<\/p>\n Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n The Fed is Wall Street’s wildcard<\/p>\n Although historical precedent and long-term data strongly favor optimists<\/a>, the Federal Reserve<\/a> is a wildcard that historical oil price movements can’t account for.<\/p>\n In February, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) hit a 22-month high of 3.1%. This is, arguably, the favorite inflationary measure used by the Fed when making monetary policy decisions. With the Core PCE well above the Fed’s 2% long-term target and the oil price shock not yet reflected in the prevailing inflation rate, it seems increasingly likely that the rate-easing cycle will be put on hold.<\/p>\n Typically, a wait-and-see approach wouldn’t be a big deal. But with this being the second-priciest stock market in history<\/a>, there’s little margin for error and a built-in expectation from investors that America’s foremost financial institution will continue lowering interest rates to promote lending.<\/p>\n If this oil price shock persists, it’s possible that the Fed could trump 40 years of history.<\/p>\n Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?<\/p>\n Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:<\/p>\n The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks<\/a> for investors to buy now\u2026 and S&P 500 Index wasn\u2019t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.<\/p>\n Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you\u2019d have $510,710!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you\u2019d have $1,105,949!*<\/p>\n Now, it\u2019s worth noting Stock Advisor\u2019s total average return is 927% \u2014 a market-crushing outperformance compared to 186% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.<\/p>\n See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of March 20, 2026. <\/p>\n Sean Williams<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/barchart-news-media-prod.aws.barchart.com\/FC\/55fc89aed1cd87fb1bce2046943ee2c4\/%3Furl%3Dhttps%253a%252f%252fg.foolcdn.com%252feditorial%252fimages%252f861043%252frocket-coins-calculator-financial-metrics-to-moon-crypto-invest-getty.jpg%26amp%3Bw%3D700\"\/)
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