March 20, 2026<\/a><\/p>\nThe Sens have 14 games to jump one of their Atlantic rivals (the Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, and Montreal Canadiens), as well as another Eastern team (the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins) in the standings, and while we don’t know how many points the club will need to accomplish this goal, we can at least try to infer a realistic outcome.<\/p>\n
With three back-to-backs remaining, we’ll assume Linus Ullmark plays 11 of 14 down the stretch with James Reimer getting the other three. Suppose Reimer goes 2-1-0 in those 3 games. If Ullmark and the Senators play up to their usual standard this season \u2013 a 21-10-7 record (49 points in 38 starts) \u2013 that roughly equates to 14 points in 11 games, or 7-4-0. The club would finish 44-29-9, with 97 points. That won’t be good enough if Detroit and Boston both go 7-6-0 or better.<\/p>\n
However, Ullmark’s recent body of work inspires more confidence. The Senators are 11-3-3 in his last 17 starts dating back to December 11th \u2013 that includes a regulation loss against the Leafs for which he wasn’t credited, due to him being pulled prior to the game-winning goal. His save percentage in that span is .898, which is much better than his season average of .886, but still only ranks 21st out of 40 goalies with a sample size that’s at least as large during that timeframe. <\/p>\n
Therefore, we shouldn’t expect significant regression in either direction, and we should expect a pace of 25 points in 17 games to be repeatable. This roughly equates to 16 points in 11 games, or an 8-3-0 record which gets Ottawa to 45-28-9, 99 points. Since they currently own the regulation wins tiebreaker against the Canadiens, Blue Jackets, Bruins, Red Wings, and Islanders (a small silver lining to all the 3-point games we’ve seen), these are the records each team needs to beat Ottawa with 100 points:<\/p>\n
MTL: 8-6-0 or equivalentCBJ: 8-5-1 or equivalentBOS: 8-5-0 or equivalentDET: 8-5-0 or equivalentNYI: 8-4-1 or equivalent<\/p>\n
So long as two of those teams (including at least one from the Atlantic) fail to reach that record, the Sens have a clear and achievable path to the playoffs. And keep in mind that all of this is assuming Ullmark continues to be a below-average goalie as opposed to the Vezina trophy-winner general manager Steve Staios acquired over a year and a half ago. If he returns to his form from last season \u2013 or better yet, his form from his glory days in Boston \u2013 well if Buffalo and Columbus can win 10 in a row, why can’t Ottawa?<\/p>\n