{"id":553810,"date":"2026-03-22T19:23:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:23:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/553810\/"},"modified":"2026-03-22T19:23:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:23:19","slug":"nascar-goodyear-400-predictions-odds-start-time-at-darlington-sunday-mar-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/553810\/","title":{"rendered":"NASCAR Goodyear 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Darlington (Sunday, Mar. 22)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chris Buescher headlines the betting card with value-driven win equity at Darlington Raceway<\/p>\n

Matchups target data edges with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin in favorable spots<\/p>\n

Goodyear 400 starts Sunday at 3:00 pm ET, live on FS1<\/p>\n

This weekend, SpeedwayBrandi staged a hostile takeover of the car radio.<\/p>\n

Spotify was doing exactly what it was supposed to do when suddenly \u201c#1\u201d by Nelly came blasting through the speakers like it had just cleared tech inspection at Darlington.<\/p>\n

Now, Nelly is not typically where we turn for betting strategy. But every once in a while, a philosopher appears in unexpected places.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat does it take to be number one? Two is not a winner and three nobody remembers.\u201d<\/p>\n

And just like that, somewhere between aisle seven and a debate about whether we actually needed anything in that store, the entire betting approach for Darlington Raceway snapped into place.<\/p>\n

Because he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n

Nobody remembers second.<\/p>\n

And sportsbooks definitely don\u2019t pay you for almost.<\/p>\n


\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

NASCAR Goodyear 400 Odds<\/p>\n

Tyler Reddick is the NASCAR Goodyear 400 favorite at +350, implying a win probability of 22.2%.<\/p>\n

Odds as of 9:10 am ET, March 22, at DraftKings<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Goodyear 400 Expert Predictions<\/p>\n

Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile, egg-shaped oval that feels like it was designed specifically to expose bad decisions.<\/p>\n

The two ends of the track are completely different, which means a car that\u2019s perfect in Turns 1 and 2 can feel borderline undrivable in Turns 3 and 4. Drivers spend the entire race chasing a balance that never fully arrives.<\/p>\n

And then there are the tires.<\/p>\n

Lap times fall off dramatically over a run\u2014three, sometimes four seconds from the start of a stint to the end. The preferred line inches closer and closer to the wall, and the margin for error disappears with it.<\/p>\n

This is not a place for short-run heroes. It\u2019s a place for drivers who can manage a run, adapt over time, and stay disciplined when everything starts to slide away from them.<\/p>\n

Which is why this week, we\u2019re not interested in safe bets.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re interested in a driver who can actually win at a price tag that flies under the radar.<\/p>\n

Chris Buescher<\/p>\n

Outright Winner (+2800 at bet365<\/a>; +2500 at TheScore\/Caesars\/FanDuel)<\/p>\n

Top-10 Finish (+150 at bet365; +105 at BetRivers\/Fanduel)<\/p>\n

Chris Buescher checks in as our seventh-ranked driver this weekend with a projected finish of 10.1, up from 11.8 before practice and qualifying.<\/p>\n

That puts him in the same neighborhood as Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace, drivers sitting $10 to $15 shorter on the board.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s value.<\/p>\n

Buescher is not going to wow anyone with flashy metrics or headline-grabbing speed. He doesn\u2019t need to.<\/p>\n

In our 2024-2025 comparable track data set, he owns the fifth-best average finish (12.4) and ninth-best average running position (14.1). It\u2019s steady, repeatable performance at a track type where that matters more than raw pace.<\/p>\n

He rolls off sixth on Sunday, which means he won\u2019t need to manufacture track position early, and he\u2019ll benefit from a strong pit stall on one of the tighter pit roads on the schedule.<\/p>\n

There are more exciting names on this board. There are not better numbers at this price.<\/p>\n

From our seat, this is the best combination of value and win equity available.<\/p>\n

Tried to give this scheme another pole position, but we\u2019ll take P6. Tomorrow should be an eventful race. \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n

I also want to say it means a lot to me personally, RFK and Jack as a whole that @FifthThird<\/a> really jumped at the opportunity to honor Greg with this throwback. In a world\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/8wnOOe34qd<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Chris Buescher (@Chris_Buescher) March 21, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Goodyear 400 Matchup Picks<\/p>\n

Christopher Bell over Chase Elliott (+110, DraftKings<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Christopher Bell comes into this weekend with a projected finish of 12.2, a sharp drop from 6.4 after qualifying 22nd and posting what we graded as the 18th-best practice session.<\/p>\n

On the surface, that looks concerning.<\/p>\n

At Darlington, it\u2019s not.<\/p>\n

This is a track that rewards drivers who can manage tires and run comfortably near the wall over a full stint. Bell\u2019s profile fits that far better than a one-lap snapshot qualifying or a poor practice session might suggest.<\/p>\n

Chase Elliott, meanwhile, starts third but ranked 25th in practice. The short-run speed appears to be there.<\/p>\n

The long-run outlook is a different story.<\/p>\n

And at this track, that difference shows up over time.<\/p>\n

There will be plenty of reasons this week to back Elliott\u2026the starting position, the name, the familiarity.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s fine.<\/p>\n

In the words of Don Draper, \u201cI don\u2019t think about you at all.\u201d<\/p>\n

Denny Hamlin over William Byron (-130, DraftKings<\/a>)<\/p>\n

This is the spot where the numbers stop being subtle.<\/p>\n

Denny Hamlin is our third-ranked driver this weekend with a projected finish of 5.6.<\/p>\n

William Byron is fourth.<\/p>\n

At 9.5.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not a gap. That\u2019s the Grand Canyon.<\/p>\n

Hamlin rolls off ninth. Byron starts 13th. It\u2019s a slight edge, but it\u2019s not the story.<\/p>\n

The story is what happens over a run.<\/p>\n

In our 2024-2025 comparable track data set, Hamlin ranks first\u2014and not by a little.<\/p>\n

Average finish: 3.6 (clearing second by 5.4 positions)<\/p>\n

Fastest laps: 23.1 per race<\/p>\n

Laps led: 35.4 per race<\/p>\n

Byron, over that same stretch:<\/p>\n

Average finish: 17.6<\/p>\n

Fastest laps: 17 per race<\/p>\n

Similar laps led, but far less consistency<\/p>\n

The average running position gap sits at 1.4 spots, and Hamlin spends roughly 7.5% more laps inside the top-15.<\/p>\n

At a track that punishes mistakes and rewards discipline, that kind of consistency compounds quickly.<\/p>\n

I understand the hesitation and SpeedwayBrandi is not going to like this.<\/p>\n

In fact, there\u2019s a very real chance this play results in a temporary relocation to the couch, and that\u2019s before she finds out we told everyone else to bet it too.<\/p>\n

But this is one of those spots where the data is loud enough that ignoring it feels like a terrible choice.<\/p>\n

And unfortunately, we\u2019ve made peace with being uncomfortable.<\/p>\n

Final Thoughts<\/p>\n

As a wise philosopher reminded us earlier, two is not a winner and three nobody remembers.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not here to be close.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re here to cash.<\/p>\n

When we say \u201cwe,\u201d we\u2019re talking about me, Steve, and a completely fictional headquarters filled with spreadsheets, strong opinions, and at least one person who takes tire falloff far too seriously.<\/p>\n

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