\n3) Rising fiscal risk and shrinking fiscal space<\/p>\n
Thailand\u2019s public debt is now about 66% of GDP, or more than 12.66 trillion baht. While still within the fiscal discipline ceiling of 70%, the level is being closely watched because Thailand\u2019s fiscal space has narrowed significantly.<\/p>\n
If the government continues major stimulus measures and prolonged energy subsidies, public debt could rise faster than previously projected, forcing the new administration to revisit its medium-term fiscal plan.<\/p>\n
This could also affect Thailand\u2019s credit outlook. In 2025, Fitch Ratings and Moody\u2019s reportedly revised Thailand\u2019s outlook from stable to negative, a warning signal if new policies push public debt higher.<\/p>\n
\n4) Inflation, prices and the cost of living<\/p>\n
After fuel prices rose in March 2026, the Commerce Ministry signalled that inflation could begin to climb after several months in negative territory.<\/p>\n
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) estimates that if oil stays above US$100 per barrel, inflation may reach 1.9%. If crude rises beyond US$120 per barrel, inflation becomes harder to forecast but could exceed 3%.<\/p>\n
Higher oil prices lift production and transport costs, pushing up prices across many goods. Even if some macro indicators remain steady, households are still facing living costs that outpace income, as higher energy costs feed through into consumer staples.<\/p>\n
The Commerce Ministry\u2019s consumer confidence index for February 2026 rose to 53.7, the highest in nine months, supported by hopes of post-election political stability. However, the index remains far below 100, suggesting most consumers are still worried about rising prices and are cautious with spending. Real purchasing power remains fragile and has not fully recovered\u2014making it another difficult test for the government as economic risks build.<\/p>\n
\n5) Government stability and political cases<\/p>\n
Another risk is political stability, particularly from sensitive cases that could affect confidence in the Bhumjaithai Party\u2014most notably the Khao Kradong case and the Senate collusion case. Even if the cases are ultimately dismissed, they could still weigh on credibility.<\/p>\n
A further long-term risk is the possibility of corruption scandals within the government. While Anutin has pledged strict oversight and integrity standards for ministers, any major controversy could still erode public support for the administration and its leadership.<\/p>\n
Nonarit Bisonyabut, a senior researcher at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said the government\u2019s urgent policy response to the Iran war focuses on three areas: oil, natural gas, and chemicals such as fertiliser and plastics. He said early planning is essential because the opposing sides have yet to find a way out, creating supply chain disruption that could lead to production stoppages and inflation.<\/p>\n
On the work of ministers in relevant portfolios, he said he has seen Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun taking a more active role in controlling prices and trying to prevent consumer exploitation, which requires more intensive enforcement. He added that Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has played a role in accelerating negotiations to purchase oil from Russia.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough we can see ministers in the government\u2019s economic team moving quickly, we have to recognise that existing tools may only stabilise the situation for about three to four months. So if the war-driven turbulence goes further than this, we need to start thinking about long-term solutions to ensure the country can get through it,\u201d Nonarit said.<\/p>\n
On the challenge of high public debt and global credit ratings, he said a high public debt level leaves limited budget space to respond to crises. He noted that the previous government\u2019s spending on cash handout schemes such as \u201cLet\u2019s Go Halves\u201d had reduced fiscal room, and he said he has yet to see a concrete plan from the Finance Ministry. He expressed concern that the government might focus mainly on raising the debt ceiling to subsidise energy prices and pursue short-term economic stimulus without sufficient caution, which he warned could be dangerous for the economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe government should start an energy-saving campaign to tackle the crisis now, by raising the level of alerts and putting temporary solutions in place \u2014 such as increasing coal use in the short term and accelerating support for alternative energy,\u201d Nonarit said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 3) Rising fiscal risk and shrinking fiscal space Thailand\u2019s public debt is now about 66% of GDP,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":554808,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[68888,879,45,49,48,46,4717,202944,714,4992,772],"class_list":["post-554807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-anutin-charnvirakul","tag-breaking-news","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-iran-war","tag-politics","tag-tariffs","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=554807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=554807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=554807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=554807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}