Quebec and Alberta: the problem kids in Confederation. What have they learned from each other?<\/p>\n
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has promised an October referendum on provincial autonomy. In Quebec, the CAQ government is drafting its own provincial constitution. Not long from now, both Quebecers and Albertans could face a stark question: Do you want to stay in Canada?<\/p>\n
I recently connected with Patrick Taillon, a constitutional law professor at Laval University in Quebec City who advises Quebec\u2019s justice minister. He\u2019s been watching Alberta closely. Constitutional mechanics might sound dry, but Patrick\u2019s insights cut through the jargon with refreshing clarity.<\/p>\n
To many Canadians, Quebec already feels emotionally detached from Confederation. Is a provincial constitution just another step down that road?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe prevailing approach in Canada has been constitutional status quo: take it or leave it,\u201d Patrick says. Whether it\u2019s Western alienation or Quebec\u2019s autonomist and sovereigntist traditions, there\u2019s been almost no appetite for serious reform to address the underlying tensions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn a mature federation, constitutional change isn\u2019t abnormal,\u201d he argues. \u201cIt is sometimes necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n
Patrick is too young to remember the Meech Lake and Charlottetown accords, but he understands their lingering shadow.<\/p>\n
What really keeps Quebec in Canada, he suggests, is the sheer difficulty of getting 50 per cent plus one of voters to back a single, transformative break. \u201cQuebec has been living with a kind of democratic impasse for decades.\u201d<\/p>\n
A provincial constitution won\u2019t magically solve that. When I sat on former Alberta premier Jason Kenney\u2019s Fair Deal Panel, few Albertans got excited about the idea. Patrick agrees: no province needs a written constitution to function. \u201cIt\u2019s more about clarification, affirmation and coherence,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n
Quebec, as the only French-majority jurisdiction in North America, has unique cultural and linguistic realities that need protecting. Other provinces could follow suit, he says. \u201cQuebec is simply moving first, and doing so in a more systematic way.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, the language of a \u201cdistinct national character\u201d sets off alarms \u2014 especially among First Nations and other Canadians who wonder what that even means in practice.<\/p>\n
\u201cBeing Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois does not mean not being Canadian,\u201d Patrick responds.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese identities are not mutually exclusive; they operate at different levels.\u201d Even in a hypothetical independence scenario, he suggests, Quebecers born Canadian would likely keep their Canadian citizenship. Identity and citizenship, he says, are more complex than simple oppositions.<\/p>\n
Patrick acknowledges that political actors in Quebec and Alberta are watching each other, borrowing ideas and adapting strategies \u2014 though this cross-pollination gets little attention outside expert circles.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlberta, for example, has openly drawn inspiration from Quebec\u2019s Quiet Revolution in its reflections on pension reform and the possibility of creating a provincial pension plan,\u201d he points out.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also growing alignment on judicial appointments, where Alberta\u2019s Smith has pushed back against what Patrick calls a \u201cfederalism deficit\u201d in how judges are chosen.\u00a0The text of a motion for a constitutional amendment that recently appeared on the agenda of the Alberta Legislative Assembly is nearly identical to the one tabled in Quebec almost a year ago.<\/p>\n
Rather than viewing these initiatives in isolation, Patrick sees them as part of an evolving interprovincial constitutional dialogue. It\u2019s a compelling frame.<\/p>\n
Yet the strategies differ in important ways. Quebec\u2019s current approach under the CAQ has focused on autonomy within Confederation, rather than on the credible threat of separation. Alberta feels different.<\/p>\n
\u201cPremier Danielle Smith\u2019s situation reminds me, in certain respects, of Robert Bourassa\u2019s position in 1992,\u201d Patrick observes.<\/p>\n
\u201cShe appears constrained by a significant sovereigntist current within her own electoral base,\u201d he says. \u201cMaintaining that base may require being \u2018somewhat sovereigntist\u2019 \u2014 assertive toward Ottawa and open to the language of autonomy \u2014 without actually advocating a formal break from Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n
His read: Smith is using leverage, and the implicit pressure of rising Alberta independence sentiment, as a short-term bargaining tool to extract gains from Ottawa. It can work in the near term, he suggests, but over the medium and long term, Quebec\u2019s experience offers a cautionary tale.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Quebec\u2019s experience, the use of referendum pressure as a negotiating instrument eventually reached a ceiling,\u201d he observes. \u201cWhen the moment of decision arrived, a majority of voters hesitated to endorse outright independence. If the same dynamic were to unfold in Alberta, the strategy could produce a political boomerang effect.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prevailing approach in Canada has been constitutional status quo: take it or leave it<\/p>\n
The independence movements themselves also differ profoundly, Patrick explains. Quebec\u2019s rests on deep linguistic and cultural foundations, with decades of institutionalization behind it \u2014 think the disciplined political vehicle of the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois under Ren\u00e9 L\u00e9vesque. Alberta\u2019s movement is newer, more grassroots, driven by distrust of Ottawa, fiscal grievances and a desire for economic control over resources.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt does not rest on a linguistic foundation,\u201d Patrick notes. \u201cTo date, there is no leadership structure comparable to what the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois represented.\u201d That organizational difference may prove more significant than ideological contrasts, he says, when assessing the durability and trajectory of each movement.<\/p>\n
Ottawa has experience managing Quebec separation referendums, but it has never faced the prospect of simultaneous movements in two provinces. Patrick\u2019s of the view that if either province voted yes \u2014 hypothetically \u2014 negotiations would have to begin. And, he suspects, the federal government would suddenly become far less rigid about the possibility of constitutional change.<\/p>\n
Finally, I asked the question that should keep Ottawa up at night: Does the potential willingness of a Trump administration to recognize a unilateral declaration of independence \u2014 by Quebec or Alberta \u2014 matter?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Trump administration is not only unpredictable,\u201d Patrick says, \u201cit is also politically unstable.\u201d Still, he acknowledges, if a major external actor signalled it\u2019s prepared to respect the democratic choice of Albertans or Quebecers, it could reshape the negotiation dynamics that would follow any vote.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf any Canadian province could realistically cultivate alliances within segments of the American political class,\u201d Patrick concludes, \u201cAlberta would likely be well positioned to do so, given its economic ties and political affinities in parts of the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n
But, Patrick cautions, \u201cbuilding such diplomatic relationships requires sustained effort, and the results are rarely as decisive or as clear-cut as political rhetoric sometimes suggests.\u201d<\/p>\n
Quebec and Alberta may be Confederation\u2019s problem kids, but they\u2019re also teaching each other lessons \u2014 about leverage, identity, patience and the limits of brinkmanship. Whether those lessons lead to a stronger federation or deeper fractures remains an open and uncomfortable question for the rest of Canada.<\/p>\n
National Post<\/p>\n
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