Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Sam Crittenden downgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T<\/a>) to a \u201csector perform\u201d recommendation from \u201coutperform\u201d previously in response to an updated mine plan for its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which pushed back a recovery to full production to 2028, calling the new guidance \u201cconservative\u201d and predicting investor sentiment could \u201cremain subdued\u201d until output returns to capacity.<\/p>\n In a client report released before the bell on Monday titled World Class in Progress, Mr. Crittenden emphasizes he continues to see long-term value with Kamoa-Kakula remaining \u201can outlier mine globally with the combination of scale and high grades.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cRevised guidance of 290\u2013330kt in 2026 (versus 380\u2013420kt originally) reflects a longer mine development path to access ore in the Kakula mine past the area that was impacted by the seismic event last May,\u201c he said. \u201dReserve tonnage and grades also came down due to the need for wider pillars and lower extraction ratios. Management conservatively applied these design parameters to Kamoa as well while the company still targets producing 500,000+ tonnes by 2028 once new areas are developed which allows for increased throughput underground. As additional work is completed, some of the affected reserves that were reclassified to inferred resources could be brought back into the mine plan including the 0.9Mt at 3.5-per-cent copper surrounding the prior working area at Kakula. They could also be able to achieve higher extraction ratios at Kamoa. The company expects to release an optimized 5-year mine plan in Q1\/2027 which could provide upside vs. current guidance.”<\/p>\n Mr. Crittenden lowered his near-term and longer-term production estimates and increased costs to reflect the new guidance, leading to his rating revision as well as a reduction to his target for the company\u2019s shares to $15 from $19, The average target on the Street is $15.38, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n \u201cValuation could improve over time: IVN shares are down 35 per cent year-to-date and are lagging the copper equities which are up 5 per cent year-to-date,\u201d he said. \u201cIVN now trades at a 0.71 times our revised NAV estimate which is below large cap copper peers at 0.9 times but inline with mid-cap copper producers at 0.7 times. We believe the shares could re-rate; however, this could take time as the mine returns to full production over the next 2 years. At spot prices, we see IVN generating FCF of negative $265-million in 2026 (negative 3-per-cent yield), $196-million in 2027 (2-per-cent yield), and $625-million in 2028 (6-per-cent yield).\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe think Ivanhoe Mines has the potential to realize significant value as production at Kamoa-Kakula ramps up and the company advances its planned expansions turning the project into one of the world\u2019s largest high-grade and low-cost copper mines. The recent seismic event is a big setback but we believe the company can return production close to the prior levels by 2028. Beyond Kamoa-Kakula, Ivanhoe operates the Kipushi zinc mine in the DRC and is ramping up the Platreef (PGM) in South Africa. We also see significant optionality in the Western Forelands exploration program.\u201d<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Dalton Baretto moved his target to $11.50 from $15 with a \u201chold\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cThe impact of the geotechnical conditions that caused the seismicity in May 2025 are clearly more meaningful that we had previously anticipated and have resulted in a major reduction in the extraction ratio (to just 60 per cent) as well as the elimination of the entire high-grade area that was previously being mined at Kakula (up to the planned stability pillar) from the reserve,\u201d said Mr. Baretto. \u201cWe note a 26-per-cent decline in reserve contained metal, along with a 28-per-cent drop in reserve grade. In addition, Kakula continues to experience adverse geotechnical and hydrological conditions, resulting in slower heading development rates; as such, stopping in the higher-grade portions of the new reserve is not expected to begin until H1\/27 (almost a full year later than original anticipated).<\/p>\n \u201cWhile Kamoa-Kakula remains a long-life, multi-decade copper complex, it is no longer the formidable high-grade complex it was expected to be. No mine plan accompanied the release; rather, management has indicated that a feasibility study is expected this time next year, which will optimize the plan and provide more clarity for the next five years of production. No update was provided on a Phase 4 expansion or on tailings reprocessing; however, our estimates continue to include these scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n Citing \u201ca more favourable view of the growth potential\u201d for its Home Healthcare business, TD Cowen analyst Jonathan Kelcher upgraded Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T<\/a>) to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201chold\u201d after resuming coverage following the close of its $570-million acquisition of CBI Home Health LP.\u201cWe have become converts to the earnings growth potential of the HHC business,\u201d he said in a client report. \u201cOur previous concerns had related to the ability to recruit\/retain staff to fill available hours – not with the size\/growth of the market. With staffing issues less of a concern (improvements in scheduling\/back office as well as colleges turning out more grads), we see potential for midhigh single digit organic volume\/revenue growth, as well as margin expansion through our forecast period. \u201cOwning the largest HHC platform in Canada. EXE expands its HHC segment through the acquisition of CBI Home Health (CBI HH) for $570-million. CBI HH is a national platform with operations in seven provinces, including a significant presence in ON (55 per cent of revenue) and AB (31 per cent). The company delivered over 10 million hours of care (approximately 28k ADV) in 2024 which compares to EXE\u2019s 11 million hours and 30k ADV. The acquisition creates the largest HHC platform in Canada, helps diversify EXE\u2019s geographic reach, and significantly increases EXE\u2019s presence in AB (only 3 per cent of EXE\u2019s HHC volume in 2025). Post acquisition, we estimate that HHC as a percentage of total NOI will increase to 52 per cent from 40 per cent.With the deal, Mr. Kelcher raised his forecast for the Markham, Ont.-based company \u201cmeaningfully\u201d with his 2026 and 2027 funds from operations per unit estimates increasing 14 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. Forecasting a 20-per-cent adjusted funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate from 2024 through 2027, which tops his our coverage universe, he bumped his target for Extendicare shares to $32 from $31. The average on the Street is $31.75.\u201cEXE\u2019s stock price has increased 35 per cent since the CBI deal was announced and is now 161 per cent since the beginning of 2024,\u201d said Mr. Kelcher. \u201cIn our view this reflects a transformational improvement in the HHC business, two straight years of largely beating street estimates, and a growing track record of accretive acquisitions. We believe street estimates may still be too low (we are 3 per cent above 2027 consensus EBITDA), especially if the company can find additional HHC tuck in acquisitions (we do not forecast any), suggesting to us that there is still more upside in the share price.\u201d\u201cWe expect demographic demands to continue driving growth in Extendicare\u2019s earnings. We are encouraged by the recent acquisitions of Closing the Gap Healthcare Group (CTG) and CBI Home Health, both acquired in an accretive manner, which has created Canada\u2019s largest HHC platform. Combined with the company\u2019s back office technology capabilities, we see opportunities for continued margin expansion as Extendicare works to integrate the two new platforms. We believe integration and the potential for additional acquisitions in the medium term could add meaningfully to earnings growth. On the LTC segment, streamlining of the company\u2019s business to a more \u2018asset light\u2019 model should enable Extendicare to grow its LTC and managed services segment in a capital efficient manner.\u201d<\/p>\n JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman initiated coverage of MDA Space Ltd.\u2019s (MDA-N<\/a>, MDA-T<\/a>) recently listed shares on the New York Stock Exchange<\/a> with an \u201coverweight\u201d rating and US$34 price target, seeing \u201csignificant potential for growth\u201d for its satellite business as new capacity give its exposure to both commercial and military demand.<\/p>\n He also touted the leadership position in the market for the Brampton, Ont.-based company\u2019s legacy robotics business and thinks new observation satellites \u201cshould reinforce a profitable franchise amid rising demand.\u201d <\/p>\n The average target on the Street is US$36.19.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Jefferies analyst Greg Konrad initiated coverage with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and US$41 price target. <\/p>\n Ahead of the release of its first-quarter financial results before the bell on Monday, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks macro challenges facing MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY-T<\/a>) \u201cobscure underlying improvement initiatives.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect ongoing macroeconomic challenges to offset the opportunity from easy year-over-year comparable and business improvements,\u201d he said. \u201cFurther, we expect unfavourable January weather to have curtailed trends.<\/p>\n \u201cOur review of Bloomberg ALTD data suggests Q1\/F26E U.S. MTY sales trends will be sequentially similar. We anticipate sssg trend improvements through F2026E. Key themes from our review of peer commentary include: (i) a focus on value (competitive industry backdrop, ongoing pressure on the lower-income consumer, pricing increases given inflation, etc.), and (ii) a negative impact in January due to unfavourable weather.\u201d<\/p>\n For the Saint-Laurent, Que-based fast food chain franchisor and operator, Mr. Shreedhar is projecting quarterly \u201ctepid\u201d same-store sales growth across all its operating areas as well as \u201cflattish\u201d year-over-year earnings. He continues to anticipate a return to EBITDA growth in fiscal 2027.<\/p>\n \u201cNotwithstanding, we expect MTY\u2019s share price to be largely governed by investor perception regarding the ongoing strategic review,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n \u201cPublic filings indicate that MTY did not repurchase any shares during Q1\/F26E, and balance sheet deleveraging remains management\u2019s focus. In our view, the lack of share repurchases despite attractive valuation is connected to the strategic review, including the possibility of a takeout offer. The outcome of the strategic review will be the key near-term catalyst for MTY\u2019s share price. NBCM models net debt to EBITDA of 2.8x in Q1\/F26E versus 2.9 times in Q4\/F25. Recall, MTY announced on November 17, 2025, that it is considering strategic alternatives, including a sale of all or part of the company, among others. We continue to believe that a takeout of MTY could be most feasible for a private equity player given MTY\u2019s unique business configuration (diversified concepts and largely franchised, reflecting a strong cash flow profile).\u201d<\/p>\n While making narrow reductions to his fiscal 2026 and 2027 financial expectations, Mr. Shreedhar reiterated an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $49 target for MTY shares. The average on the Street is<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe valuation at 6.5 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA versus the five-year average of 8.5 times is supportive, particularly as it relates to the strategic review,\u201d he said. \u201cThe F2026E free cash flow yield is over 10 per cent.<\/p>\n \u201cIndependent of the strategic review, valuation should re-rate higher upon demonstration of sustained growth. NBCM models sustained EBITDA growth from F2027E. We anticipate sssg trend improvements through F2026E (opportunity from easy comparable and company initiatives, although macroeconomic considerations may delay this).\u201d<\/p>\n In response to a non-brokered private placement for $8.0-million with L6 Holdings, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Kyle McPhee upgraded Decisive Dividend Corp. (DE-X<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cspeculative buy\u201d previously, seeing the transaction \u201cadding a quality long-term shareholder and financial partner while also adding to the company\u2019s capacity to fund the established pipeline of accretive M&A transactions (adding to funding capacity that has been organically accumulating in recent quarters).\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cDeployment of the capital position should drive profit per share estimates higher while also powering the ongoing stock re-rate back to status as a value compounding growth platform,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n L6 Holdings, a Toronto-based firm controlled by the Leonard family, which founded Constellation Software and currently manages Pinetree Capital, now owns 12 per cent of Decisive Dividend shares, up from 8 per cent previously. They also received pro rata share ownership rights going forward. <\/p>\n \u201cImmediate financial profile impact (before deployment for growth): The pro forma impact of the equity financing before considering deployment for growth includes (1) debt leverage falls by 0.4 times to 2.6 times exit-2025 (more comfortable than it already was), (2) liquidity in the form of cash plus credit facility drawdown room increases by $8-million to $48-million (earmarked to fund acquisitions that are not reflected in ATB\/Street expectations), (3) LTM [last 12-month] dividend payout ratio increases 4 percentage points to 67 per cent (attractive prevailing dividend yield is still looking safe), and (4) share count, EPS, and FCFPS diluted by 5 per cent (before crediting DE for deployment of the capital into accretive growth, which we think is very high odds during 2026),\u201d said Mr. McPhee. <\/p>\n \u201cEventual financial profile impact (post deployment for growth): Assuming typical M&A deal metrics and also assuming ceiling debt leverage of 3.0 times net debt\/pro forma EBITDA (stated comfort level), we estimate DE is now positioned to acquire up to $7.0-million of EBITDA without accessing new equity capital (and before considering the benefit of ongoing FCF accumulation). This level of M&A would be ballpark 20-25-per-cent accretive to FCF per share (or 15-20 per cent relative to the pre-deal profile), and would likely encompass 2-3 M&A deals. We note that recent quarterly conference call commentary did suggest the M&A deal pipeline is well advanced, and the team is ready to get back to M&A that is sized to move the needle for DE (after taking a break and only executing minor tuck-ins, while the organic base of business was put on stronger footing and positioned for organic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst raised his target for Decisive Dividend shares to $11.50 from $10.75. The average is $9.75.<\/p>\n \u201cOur Outperform rating is rooted in the investment setup that includes an attractive prevailing valuation (room for ongoing re-rate), high likelihood of meaningful forecast increases that can uncover even more value (as the capital position is deployed for growth), and the organic profile that seems to be on steadier footing with net growth and steady FCF generation,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n Following the release of \u201csoft\u201d guidance from D2L Inc. (DTOL-T<\/a>), TD Cowen analyst John Shao reaffirms his view of the current fiscal year year as \u201ca transition\/build\u201d period as the cloud-based learning software provider overcomes growth headwinds.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe the core growth driver remains intact while D2L makes steady progress with its AI,\u201d he added. \u201cMeantime, its ability to execute will be tested, setting the stage for a future re-rating.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe overall tone is very similar to last quarter\u2019s. Higher-ed as the core growth driver remains solid with good demand signals and a growing pipeline, while the 50-per-cent-plus win rate is kept and the company was able to gain market share from 3 major competitors. Offsetting that strength is the K-12 churn, and overall that segment accounts for 10 per cent of the ARR, with the US K-12 (5 per cent of the ARR) at a relatively higher retention risk. On the profitability front, known headwinds such as database migration and FX weigh on the F27 EBITDA guidance.\u201d<\/p>\n Keeping his \u201cbuy\u201d rating for D2L shares, Mr. Shao cut his target to $13 from $22, warning \u201cits ability to execute will be tested, setting the stage for a future re-rating.\u201d The average is $14.25.<\/p>\n \u201cD2L is currently trading at 1.0 times forward revenue, which is below eLearning peers at 1.1 times and HCM peers at 3.0 times,\u201d he said. \u201cWe believe D2L shares are undervalued, and there is opportunity for multiple expansion if D2L continues to win market share, accelerates growth, and continues expanding margins.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe rate D2L BUY, given our expectations for revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion. D2L\u2019s KPI momentum and low relative valuation leave us positive on the name. We expect RFP activity to improve, allowing D2L to continue gaining share. With a long runway to displace legacy vendors, we believe D2L can successfully port its North American playbook to international markets, where approximately 80 per cent still remain on legacy platforms.\u201d<\/p>\n Elsewhere, others making revisions include:<\/p>\n * BMO\u2019s Thanos Moschopoulos to $10 from $17 with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cGrowth is being impacted by higher churn in K12 and lower activity in North American higher-ed, although pipeline activity has been improving. We see limited downside risk to the stock given its depressed valuation and high recurring revenue mix, but we remain on the sidelines. On a relative basis, and given the sharp multiple compression across the software sector, we prefer other stocks in our coverage universe,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n * Stifel\u2019s Suthan Sukumar to $9.50 from $12.75 with a \u201chold\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the core business (higher-ed, international and corporate learning) is experiencing stronger underlying growth, persisting U.S. K-12 churn remains a headwind. Thus, we remain cautious around prospects for stronger growth near-term, particularly as progress on AI monetization is encouraging but still early-days and the broader backdrop for U.S. higher-ed activity remains muted,\u201d said Mr. Sukumar.<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * In response to its $75.3-million investment in Kubik LP as well as a 3-per-cent distribution increase (to $1.52 per unit annually), Acumen Capital\u2019s Trevor Reynolds bumped his Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T<\/a>) target to $26.50 from $26 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $25.17. <\/p>\n * Scotia\u2019s Robert Hope raised his AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T<\/a>) target to $54 from $52, keeping a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating. The average is $50.67.<\/p>\n \u201cWe view AltaGas\u2019 Global Export business as a crown jewel asset, which is uniquely positioned to benefit from the current commodity price environment,\u201d said Mr. Hope. \u201cIf the Iran conflict persists, the spread between propane\/butane (LPG) pricing in Asia relative to North America could remain wide. This presents significant upside to our AltaGas EBITDA estimates as we estimate a US$10\/bbl move in the spread adds 5 per cent\/13 per cent\/17 per cent to our EBITDA estimates in 2026\/2027\/2028. While the pricing impacts can be transitory, we also believe that the conflict will fundamentally change LPG buying behavior to place a greater emphasis on diversity and security of supply. These dynamics favour AltaGas and support further Global Export expansions. We increase our 2026 estimates to reflect only a US$5\/bbl increase in LPG spreads. Given the favourable LPG environment and a cold winter we are above the top end of AltaGas\u2019 guidance range. We increase our target price to include the value of OPTI II as well as further EBITDA upside potential. At 18.5 times 2027E P\/E, we view AltaGas as a way for investors to get exposure to high-growth utility and midstream assets at an attractive valuation (the other Canadian utilities are trading in the 18-25 times range).\u201d<\/p>\n * Ahead of the release of its second-quarter results on Thursday after the bell, Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Aravinda Galappatthige cut his Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T<\/a>) target by $2 to $74 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $75.91.<\/p>\n \u201cAs we enter Q2\/26, our focus is on the potential shape of recovery in the U.S. business,\u201d he said. \u201cWe expect Q2 to mark the peak in U.S. EBITDA declines, followed by a degree of improvement in the second half. The prospective drivers are 1) the previously mentioned price increases, 2) net adds trends improvement, 3) ongoing benefits from the transformation plan, and over time 4) the rollout of the welo brand. We interpret the recent share price pullback as largely reflective of market uncertainty and limited visibility on the U.S. recovery. That said, the Canadian business remains stable, and the stock still offers an attractive FCF yield of 18 per cent, providing meaningful downside protection.\u201d<\/p>\n * ATB Cormark\u2019s Kyle McPhee cut his target for shares of High Liner Foods Inc. (HLF-T<\/a>) to $19.50 from $24 with a \u201cspeculative buy\u201d rating. The average is $18.63.<\/p>\n \u201cHLF released a weak Q1\/26 preview (margin pressures), alongside a plan to cut headcount (further aligning costs with the weak macro backdrop). We have meaningfully lowered our Q1\/26 estimates, with a lesser impact on full-year 2026 estimates. We now also assume a prolonged path back to normalized demand\/margin conditions (lower 2027 estimates),\u201d said Mr. McPhee.<\/p>\n * ATB Cormark\u2019s Gavin Fairweather raised his Quarterhill Inc. (QTRH-T<\/a>) target to $2.75 from $2 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $1.99.<\/p>\n \u201cLast week, we attended meetings between CEO Chuck Myers, CFO Dave Charron and institutional investors. We walked away from the sessions with greater confidence in organic growth, the margin trajectory, debt refinancing and the M&A opportunity,\u201d said Mr. Fairweather.<\/p>\n * Wells Fargo\u2019s Ken Gawrelski lowered his target on Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N<\/a>, SHOP-T<\/a>) to US$166 from US$191, keeping an \u201coverweight\u201d rating. The average is US$163.99. <\/p>\n * Seeing it \u201cprimed to deliver a major gold-copper mine in Canada,\u201d Ventum Capital Markets\u2019 Robin Kozar initiated coverage of on Troilus Mining Corp. (TLG-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and 12-month target price of $4. The average is $3.50.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Troilus gold-copper deposit is one of the largest undeveloped gold assets in North America,\u201d he said. \u201cThe project offers a compelling combination of size, mine life, brownfield site benefits, and government support, all within a tier-one jurisdiction. This is a gold project of size with copper by-product production that enhances strategic value. We see a clear path to near-term production and upside from current share price levels.\u201d <\/p>\n