{"id":585999,"date":"2026-04-06T14:34:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T14:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/585999\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T14:34:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T14:34:18","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-monday-will-bubba-chandler-silence-padres-bats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/585999\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Monday: Will Bubba Chandler silence Padres’ bats?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 6, 2026, 10:10 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Monday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Kazuma Okamoto<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last week, Okamoto has posted a 25-degree launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.<\/p>\n

Will Smith<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+518)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.71 EV
One reason to bet this: The Rogers Centre roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this matchup 15 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game on Monday’s slate — favorable for offense.<\/p>\n

Luke Raley<\/a> | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-127)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.82 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the fifth-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.<\/p>\n

Jorbit Vivas<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+132)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Vivas has done a bad job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 3.1-degree angle is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (seventh percentile).<\/p>\n

Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Justin Wrobleski<\/a> | UNDER 3.5 K (+119)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> have seven batters in their projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wrobleski in today’s game.<\/p>\n

Brandon Woodruff<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 11.9 mph in this game, the third-strongest of the day for bats.<\/p>\n

Janson Junk<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-118)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.02 EV
One reason to bet this: The Miami Marlins<\/a>‘ outfield defense projects as the fifth-strongest out of all teams playing today.<\/p>\n

Bubba Chandler<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 ER (+118)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.49 EV
One reason to bet this: With six batters who hit from the same side in the San Diego Padres<\/a>‘ projected lineup, Chandler figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.<\/p>\n

The BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Michael Wacha<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

51.1<\/p>\n

2.21<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+127<\/p>\n

0.42<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O +102<\/p>\n

7.93<\/p>\n

-2.29<\/p>\n

Tanner Bibee<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

49.0<\/p>\n

-10.60<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-166<\/p>\n

-10.65<\/p>\n

U -122<\/p>\n

-6.05<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Brandon Williamson<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

44.9<\/p>\n

-6.39<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

-7.37<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.84<\/p>\n

-1.55<\/p>\n

Janson Junk<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

55.1<\/p>\n

-2.64<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+110<\/p>\n

-4.47<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-7.57<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

German Marquez<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

36.6<\/p>\n

-24.74<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-140<\/p>\n

-24.98<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

9.20<\/p>\n

-2.74<\/p>\n

Bubba Chandler<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

63.4<\/p>\n

12.84<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+107<\/p>\n

16.42<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-6.30<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Brandon Woodruff<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

45.9<\/p>\n

-13.94<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

-19.08<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -110<\/p>\n

8.22<\/p>\n

-11.02<\/p>\n

Brayan Bello<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

54.2<\/p>\n

5.37<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-142<\/p>\n

4.43<\/p>\n

U -110<\/p>\n

1.93<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Andre Pallante<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

54.8<\/p>\n

2.72<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+108<\/p>\n

0.71<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

7.92<\/p>\n

-16.98<\/p>\n

Zack Littell<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

45.2<\/p>\n

-12.07<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-140<\/p>\n

-11.58<\/p>\n

U -107<\/p>\n

8.61<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Justin Wrobleski<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

57.8<\/p>\n

-2.49<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-4.03<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O +101<\/p>\n

9.57<\/p>\n

-3.72<\/p>\n

Max Scherzer<\/p>\n

+123<\/p>\n

42.2<\/p>\n

-7.12<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

-8.23<\/p>\n

U -122<\/p>\n

-5.20<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Casey Mize<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

48.5<\/p>\n

-0.14<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-153<\/p>\n

-0.69<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

7.84<\/p>\n

1.76<\/p>\n

Joe Ryan<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

51.5<\/p>\n

-8.43<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+117<\/p>\n

-13.33<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

-11.03<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Albert Suarez<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

54.2<\/p>\n

-7.34<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-10.86<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -106<\/p>\n

9.20<\/p>\n

-13.15<\/p>\n

Grant Taylor<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

45.9<\/p>\n

-0.42<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-1.27<\/p>\n

U -114<\/p>\n

3.83<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Logan Gilbert<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

45.3<\/p>\n

-8.82<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

-7.27<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

7.61<\/p>\n

-9.36<\/p>\n

Jacob deGrom<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

54.7<\/p>\n

-0.25<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+120<\/p>\n

-4.32<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

0.19<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cody Bolton<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

55.8<\/p>\n

-14.71<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-16.90<\/p>\n

10.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

12.10<\/p>\n

5.64<\/p>\n

Ryan Feltner<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

44.2<\/p>\n

12.66<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

9.34<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-14.89<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chris Sale<\/p>\n

-175<\/p>\n

52.3<\/p>\n

-16.56<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

-20.02<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

7.50<\/p>\n

-16.28<\/p>\n

Jose Soriano<\/p>\n

+144<\/p>\n

47.7<\/p>\n

14.44<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

10.02<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

7.81<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Andrew Painter<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

53.8<\/p>\n

-0.62<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+107<\/p>\n

-1.53<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

8.94<\/p>\n

2.87<\/p>\n

Adrian Houser<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

46.2<\/p>\n

-8.42<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-139<\/p>\n

-9.85<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-11.55<\/p>\n

Top Betting Trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/a> Run Line:
The Braves have covered the run line in 13 straight road games. (+13.20 Units \/ 73% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +100<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/a> Game Total UNDER:
Nine straight Twins games have gone under the total. (+9.00 Units \/ 92% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ -105<\/p>\n

San Francisco Giants<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:
The Giants have led after five innings in five straight games. (+5.05 Units \/ 47% ROI). Current odds: +100<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> Moneyline:
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 15 road games, dating back to last season. (+10.30 Units \/ 52% ROI). Current odds: -149<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Brewers have gone under in this bet in eight of their last 10 road games. (8-2) (+5.80 Units \/ 49% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +114<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 6, 2026, 10:10 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":586000,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-585999","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=585999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/586000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=585999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=585999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=585999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}