{"id":590763,"date":"2026-04-08T18:30:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T18:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/590763\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T18:30:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T18:30:11","slug":"whats-priced-in-for-the-federal-reserve-and-ecb-after-the-iran-ceasefire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/590763\/","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s priced in for the Federal Reserve and ECB after the Iran ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow&#8217;s PCE report and Friday&#8217;s CPI. During the time when the war dominated headlines, the news on the US economy was mostly good, highlighting that the economy was improving in February before bombs started falling.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The big news today is the $19 decline in WTI crude oil prices, or 17.5%. That&#8217;s a big retracement in inflation and a huge help for the Federal Reserve, which is now in a much better spot to &#8216;look through&#8217; the energy price spike because it&#8217;s now time-limited.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Looking at the 2-year yield, we can see that it touched the lowest since March 18 today but it&#8217;s still a long ways back down to the 3.4% pre-war zone. That&#8217;s because the spike along and lost oil is going to make it difficult to get oil back to $60.<\/p>\n<p>US 2 year yields<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Looking at Fed funds futures, the April 29 meeting isn&#8217;t live and it&#8217;s the same thing for the June 17 meeting. Those are the final two meetings with Jerome Powell as Chairman.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Looking further out, the market is now pricing in 10.5 bps of easing this year, or a 42% chance of a cut. That&#8217;s up from virtually nil last week.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Shifting to Europe, the odds of a hike at the April 30 meeting have plunged to just 31.5% but that rises to 71.9% for June and 91% for September. Previously the market had priced in two rate hikes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow&#8217;s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":590764,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-590763","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}