We have an insane, high-action card this weekend for UFC 327 that features Ji\u0159\u00ed Proch\u00e1zka and Carlos Ulberg in the main event.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll be breaking down that championship fight, as well as two more high-variance matchups from the slate. If you want to chat about any other fights, feel free to leave a comment.<\/p>\n
Ji\u0159\u00ed Proch\u00e1zka vs. Carlos Ulberg
\n Jiri ProchazkaCarlos Ulberg<\/p>\n
Odds<\/p>\n
-125<\/p>\n
-102<\/p>\n
SSLpM<\/p>\n
5.69<\/p>\n
6.54<\/p>\n
SApM<\/p>\n
5.6<\/p>\n
4.04<\/p>\n
Striking Defense<\/p>\n
45%<\/p>\n
51%<\/p>\n
Takedowns\/15 min.<\/p>\n
0.51<\/p>\n
0.55<\/p>\n
Takedown Defense<\/p>\n
68%<\/p>\n
85%<\/p>\n
The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line Saturday night as Ji\u0159\u00ed Proch\u00e1zka and Carlos Ulberg slug it out until one man goes down. Proch\u00e1zka has excelled with that style so far, and with the exception of Alex Pereira, has always been the one left standing.<\/p>\n
Proch\u00e1zka now holds a 6-2 record in the UFC with all eight fights ending inside the distance. His chaotic, forward-pressure style has turned him into a real fan favorite. While I wouldn\u2019t classify defense as one of Proch\u00e1zka\u2019s specialties, he\u2019s shown a consistent ability to step on the gas pedal in the mid-rounds, wear his opponent down and break them.<\/p>\n
In fact, Proch\u00e1zka has yet to win by first-round knockout, but he has three victories in Round 2, two in Round 3, and one in Round 5. His two losses have also come in the second round.<\/p>\n
Despite the enjoyable optics of his matchups, I don\u2019t think Proch\u00e1zka is a particularly trustworthy fighter from an analytical sense. He lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.60 per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate. He\u2019s offensively creative and dangerous, but he\u2019s quite hittable, and he\u2019s been hurt numerous times.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s arguably his cardio that has allowed his chaotic style to work, even in fights he\u2019s losing. But his hands-down, semi-reckless style typically gives opponents a high offensive floor early in the fight, which has always been a concern of mine.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Ulberg is a technical kickboxer from the City Kickboxing camp, who\u2019s been on a sick run of wins himself. Ulberg lost his UFC debut to Kennedy Nzechukwu in 2021, but has won nine consecutive fights, including six inside the distance.<\/p>\n
I love the adjustments Ulberg has made throughout his career. That debut was concerning because Ulberg fought at a pace which he could not keep up. He landed an incredible 83 significant strikes in the first round alone, but got tired and allowed the pressure of Nzechukwu to close the distance, where he took some damage and fell.<\/p>\n
Since then, Ulberg has fought much more patiently. He has still secured a bunch of quick knockout wins, including over Dominick Reyes in his last matchup. He\u2019s perfectly fine to strike at a mid-pace, win some rounds and win a decision.<\/p>\n
His metrics are solid as well, landing 6.54 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.04 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.<\/p>\n
He has had competitive fights with Jan B\u0142achowicz and Volkan Oezdemir, but nobody in the UFC thus far has been able to outland him numerically.<\/p>\n
I think this is a great matchup, and also a super high-variance one. I don\u2019t have a strong opinion on who wins. Proch\u00e1zka is lined anywhere from -125 to -110 depending on where you look, so the matchup is competitive on paper. I lean slightly toward Ulberg being the value side.<\/p>\n
I think Ulberg is more likely to have success early. As the more technical and defensive fighter, he should be able to stay safe for a while. Proch\u00e1zka hasn\u2019t had overwhelming success in rounds in which he hasn\u2019t knocked his opponent down, and Ulberg does well to avoid big damage.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Ulberg has early knockout upside. Proch\u00e1zka has been hurt badly many times, and an early knockout for Ulberg wouldn\u2019t be a surprise. Proch\u00e1zka also has early knockout upside, but I\u2019d be a little more surprised by that result.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s fair to favor Proch\u00e1zka because of the one loss we\u2019ve seen from Ulberg. His opponent pressured him, tired him out and knocked him out. In theory, it\u2019s the recipe for success from Proch\u00e1zka. What round that comes in, I\u2019m not sure, but at some point, Proch\u00e1zka will probably throw caution to the wind. A TKO win for him may very well be the final result.<\/p>\n
But I don\u2019t think Proch\u00e1zka turning on the gas automatically means he will win. Ulberg still carries a high floor of offense and is probably equally likely to knock Proch\u00e1zka out, unless he\u2019s super tired. I also thought Ulberg fared well against Oezdemir in the third round, when Oezdemir tried to pressure him and brawl.<\/p>\n
So I have some hope that Ulberg has improved since his debut in 2021 and can deal with Proch\u00e1zka\u2019s pressure a bit better.<\/p>\n
From the props side, I\u2019d look toward either fighter winning by TKO to get the best value, though the moneyline is an easier and safer play if you do want action.<\/p>\n
Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s continue down the road of another light heavyweight, high-variance matchup between Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker.<\/p>\n
Dominick ReyesJohnny Walker<\/p>\n
Odds<\/p>\n
-138<\/p>\n
+108<\/p>\n
SSLpM<\/p>\n
5.39<\/p>\n
4.06<\/p>\n
SApM<\/p>\n
3.49<\/p>\n
3.09<\/p>\n
Striking Defense<\/p>\n
49%<\/p>\n
45%<\/p>\n
Takedowns\/15 min.<\/p>\n
0.29<\/p>\n
0.42<\/p>\n
Takedown Defense<\/p>\n
82%<\/p>\n
57%<\/p>\n
This one is arguably even more of a crapshoot because Reyes and Walker have serious durability concerns.<\/p>\n
Reyes is coming off a brutal knockout loss against Ulberg, and he\u2019s been knocked out cold three other times, including against Proch\u00e1zka in 2021. The only loss he\u2019s taken that wasn\u2019t a devastating KO was when he almost beat Jon Jones in 2020.<\/p>\n
On the other side, Walker has shown himself to be even more wild and reckless, which led to some incredible highlight-reel knockouts in his early UFC career. Eventually, his opponents realized that if you just land cleanly, he\u2019ll likely go unconscious, which led to a string of poor results from 2019-22.<\/p>\n
Walker is actually coming off a solid result over Zhang Mingyang in China, where he was a heavy underdog, but earned a second-round TKO win with some damaging leg kicks that Zhang wasn\u2019t able to withstand. Prior to that, he was knocked out badly by both Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev.<\/p>\n
I kind of like Reyes in this spot, and I still view him as the better fighter of the two. He\u2019s the better boxer in my opinion, and his metrics are better.<\/p>\n
Reyes lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.49 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. It\u2019s not phenomenal, but he\u2019s fought and beaten good competition. He\u2019s won decisions in the UFC before, too, including against Oezdemir and Ovince Saint Preux.<\/p>\n
Walker feels more moment-based. He\u2019s less consistent minute to minute and is the more likely fighter of the two to win via a random, flying maneuver than he is to actually win rounds.<\/p>\n
Walker just closed at +290 against Zhang, which tells you the public perception of him. I am definitely worried about the durability of Reyes, but losing to Ulberg is less of an issue to me. Now we\u2019re only getting Reyes at -138.<\/p>\n
If you told me Reyes did not win by TKO, I\u2019d be less excited to have exposure to him, in which case, betting Reyes to win by TKO is pretty reasonable at +120. I do think he\u2019s the better round winner of the two, probably the better wrestler and still has mild decision equity if something weird happens.<\/p>\n
Walker feels more likely to win by KO if he wins at all, and he\u2019s lined up at +210 to win by KO on some books. That\u2019s not the worst play in the world.<\/p>\n
This is arguably too high-variance a spot to invest in with any excitement, but I think Reyes is the superior fighter all-around. If he can close the distance into boxing range, I lean toward him securing an early finish in this fight.<\/p>\n
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr<\/p>\n
The UFC will send Cub Swanson off into retirement with a banger matchup against Nate Landwehr.<\/p>\n
Cub SwansonNate Landwehr<\/p>\n
Odds<\/p>\n
+100<\/p>\n
-120<\/p>\n
SSLpM<\/p>\n
4.79<\/p>\n
5.63<\/p>\n
SApM<\/p>\n
4<\/p>\n
5.83<\/p>\n
Striking Defense<\/p>\n
59%<\/p>\n
52%<\/p>\n
Takedowns\/15 min.<\/p>\n
1.01<\/p>\n
0.76<\/p>\n
Takedown Defense<\/p>\n
63%<\/p>\n
71%<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not one to get excited about retirement fights, and they can often be a bearish signal, but I also think it\u2019s completely matchup dependent, as we just saw with Michael Chiesa, who dominantly won his retirement fight in one minute.<\/p>\n
Swanson is 42 years old and no longer in his prime, but he still fights well. He is a well-rounded fighter and a decent boxer. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.0 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. We have seen him trade wins and losses for the majority of his UFC career, but he\u2019s shown solid durability for a fighter with this many fights on his record.<\/p>\n
Swanson was knocked out by Jos\u00e9 Aldo back in 2009, but has only been knocked out two other times. One came via a body kick from Giga Chikadze in 2021, and the other came from leg kicks against Jonathan Martinez in 2022.<\/p>\n
Durability has a wide spectrum, but Swanson seems to be toward the better end of the spectrum, considering his few finishes and how they\u2019ve actually come to fruition. Even as recently as his last matchup, Swanson went toe-to-toe with Billy Quarantillo for two rounds before knocking him out in the third. That\u2019s not an easy win.<\/p>\n
Swanson is a little bit vulnerable at distance. He\u2019s not as fast as he once was. He\u2019s not the greatest wrestler, but he\u2019s very experienced and still a technical fighter, especially with his hands.<\/p>\n
Landwehr comes from the Proch\u00e1zka school of fighting, which has also made him a fan favorite, but has led to some devastating knockout losses along the way. In fact, Landwehr has always been known as a fighter who excels in getting beaten up and then coming from behind to win. He came back late to finish \u013dudov\u00edt Klein in Round 3, which is super impressive. He took a majority decision over David Onama in 2022. It didn\u2019t take long to mount the comeback against Jamall Emmers in 2024, where Landwehr won by knockout at the end of Round 1.<\/p>\n
His losses show the flip side, though. He was KO\u2019d badly in the first round by both Herbert Burns and Julian Erosa. It\u2019s hard to state just how bad that looks in hindsight. More recently, Dooho Choi battered him on the mat for a mid-round stoppage. In his last bout, Morgan Charri\u00e8re put Landwehr unconscious in Round 3.<\/p>\n
Landwehr now lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.83 with a 52 percent defensive rate. I don\u2019t think he\u2019s awful, but he doesn\u2019t mix it up often, barely wrestles and he\u2019s not very fast. I prefer fighters who rely on comeback wins to have top-notch durability, like Marlon Vera. Landwehr has poor durability, which is a major red flag.<\/p>\n
Somehow, Landwehr is still favored to win this fight, which I guess is an indication of the public\u2019s dislike of Swanson\u2019s retirement. More fairly, you can argue this is just a 50-50 type of matchup. I personally favor Swanson, if only slightly. He\u2019s the better boxer here, and he\u2019s way more defensively sound. He\u2019s also way more durable. I\u2019m not sold that Landwehr can just eat 80 punches to the head and then mount a major comeback.<\/p>\n
Neither fighter wrestles much, either. I could see both mixing in a takedown, and I\u2019d like it if they did, but it\u2019s hard to project. Especially in a retirement fight, I\u2019m not sure Swanson wants to wrestle.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, it\u2019s a virtual pick \u2019em fight for a reason. Swanson is the dog, though, at +100, and he\u2019s my pick to win. I think he has knockout upside, too, and is lined up to +310 on some books to win by knockout.<\/p>\n
This should be a super fun fight, and I\u2019m expecting more chaos on what\u2019s a brilliant action card from top to bottom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We have an insane, high-action card this weekend for UFC 327 that features Ji\u0159\u00ed Proch\u00e1zka and Carlos Ulberg…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":596828,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,48,641,1296,638,82,6452],"class_list":{"0":"post-596827","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mma","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-fighting","11":"tag-mixed-martial-arts","12":"tag-mma","13":"tag-sports","14":"tag-sports-betting"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}