Martinsville recap<\/a>: \u201cNow sitting 24th in points, [Kyle] Busch\u2019s season is teetering in the wrong direction.\u201d What\u2019s the path is for Busch to get the momentum going in the right direction? What are his best tracks ahead, and how can he maximize his points realistically?<\/p>\nJeff: It just doesn\u2019t seem like RCR\u2019s Cup cars are very good right now. At all. Yes, Busch is off to a miserable start and has an average finish of 21.6. But teammate Austin Dillon is even worse (27th in points, average finish of 23.3), and RCR has a combined zero top-10 finishes at this point in the season for the first time in its history. The cars aren\u2019t qualifying well or racing well; aside from both cars getting a top-10 starting spot at Darlington, they have both qualified 24th or worse in every non-superspeedway race this season. So say what you want about Busch, a future Hall of Famer you\u2019d expect to see doing better, but the cars just aren\u2019t fast enough so far this season. Not even close.<\/p>\n
Jordan: There are a lot of contributing factors. One of the main ones is that RCR as a whole is struggling and, for some time, has lacked any sort of high-level consistency. It\u2019s hard for a driver to produce results if they don\u2019t have a car capable of contending. But Busch is culpable, too. He hasn\u2019t fully adapted to the Next Gen car, and his results bear this out. He hasn\u2019t won in the past 100 races, whereas Dillon has two victories during this span. Too often, he tries to overcompensate for RCR\u2019s deficiencies by pushing too hard, often making the situation worse. Add everything together, and it\u2019s why Busch is off to the worst start of his career.<\/p>\n
What should we expect at Bristol in terms of strategy, especially considering recent tire wear races, etc.?<\/p>\n
Jeff: On Wednesday, I spoke with Justin Fantozzi, Goodyear\u2019s Director of Racing for the Americas. After some wildly unpredictable tire issues over the past two years at Bristol, Goodyear concluded the problems were all due to temperature issues. So last November, they did a postseason tire test at Goodyear and came up with a tire that officials believe will be much less weather-dependent and not nearly as sensitive to a suddenly cold day. The new tire is expected to be able to lay down rubber even in cold temperatures (instead of turning to dust), so this should be a more straightforward and traditional Bristol race.<\/p>\n
Jordan: There is a better chance of correctly picking the winning lotto numbers in consecutive weeks than accurately knowing what the tire situation will be like on Sunday. Last year, the widespread consensus going into the spring race was that there would be significant wear. Yeah, that didn\u2019t happen. Not even close. And afterward, the garage was baffled as to why. Then, when NASCAR returned in the fall, the belief was that tires would have little wear during the race. Guess what? The opposite transpired. This is how Bristol has been the past few years; everyone thinks one thing, and in short order, everyone is proven wrong and shrugs their shoulders.<\/p>\n
Who is your favorite to win it?<\/p>\n
Jeff: Ty Gibbs will pick up his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory on Sunday, finally breaking through after 130 starts. Why now? Gibbs has found his groove with five straight finishes of sixth or better and is headed to probably his best track in the Cup Series. Bristol is where Gibbs has his most career laps led (440 \u2014 no other track has more than 80), most top-10s (four) and tied for the most top-fives (two). He also led 201 laps in the Bristol Night Race last summer. Yes, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell will be formidable \u2014 as will Kyle Larson, who is the favorite for a reason. But this could be the moment everything comes together for Gibbs as he picks up his first Cup win.<\/p>\n
Jordan: It\u2019s been 31 races since Kyle Larson last won a race. That\u2019s hard to fathom, even if he still won the 2025 Cup Championship during this stretch. But that streak comes to an end Sunday. Bristol is one of his best tracks and a place that fits his skill set so well. In the Next Gen era, Larson either ranks first or is tied for first in wins, top-five finishes, average finish and laps led \u2014 in fact, his laps led total (946) almost doubles that of second-ranked Ty Gibbs. Larson is the clear favorite on Sunday, and there is no reason to overthink this.<\/p>\n
Who is a long shot you like?<\/p>\n
Jeff: There\u2019s only been one \u201cupset\u201d type winner in the last 25 years at Bristol, and even that wasn\u2019t that shocking. Chris Buescher won a crazy race of attrition in the first year of the Next Gen car in 2022. So honestly, I wouldn\u2019t go too far down the list. Maybe a better bet is to take a couple of fliers on someone getting a top 10, like a Zane Smith or AJ Allmendinger. Otherwise, this is going to be one of those Big Three teams races; last spring, Hendrick, JGR and Penske swept the top six finishing spots.<\/p>\n
Jordan: One long shot to consider: Ross Chastain, who has three top-10s in the past six races here (all in the Next Gen car). Yes, Trackhouse is a bit off right now. But if this race features high tire wear, as it has in recent years, Chastain can navigate the chaos to potentially contend. He\u2019s as good a long shot as anyone at a track where a handful of drivers tend to dominate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The NASCAR Cup Series comes back from the holiday break and heads to Bristol, Tenn., for the Food…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":596832,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[446],"tags":[49,48,12716,634,82,6452],"class_list":{"0":"post-596831","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nascar","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-motorsports","11":"tag-nascar","12":"tag-sports","13":"tag-sports-betting"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596831\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}