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Derek CartyApr 11, 2026, 09:49 AM ET<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n Multiple Authors<\/p>\n All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n Saturday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n Jake Burger<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+511) Adrian Del Castillo<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+940) Tyler Heineman<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+106) Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n Janson Junk<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-132) Luis Castillo<\/a> | OVER 5.5 K (-107) Ranger Suarez<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-167) THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n PITCHER<\/p>\n MONEY PROJ. VALUE %<\/p>\n RUN OV<\/p>\n VALUE %<\/p>\n GAME O\/U<\/p>\n xRUNS<\/p>\n VALUE %<\/p>\n +113<\/p>\n 42.1<\/p>\n -10.92<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -132<\/p>\n -10.24<\/p>\n 8.5<\/p>\n O -112<\/p>\n 8.83<\/p>\n -10.24<\/p>\n -136<\/p>\n 57.9<\/p>\n 0.96<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +101<\/p>\n -1.65<\/p>\n U -108<\/p>\n 1.27<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +119<\/p>\n 47.0<\/p>\n 3.92<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -133<\/p>\n 2.52<\/p>\n 7.5<\/p>\n O -102<\/p>\n 7.71<\/p>\n -7.97<\/p>\n -143<\/p>\n 53.0<\/p>\n -10.70<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +102<\/p>\n -16.21<\/p>\n U -118<\/p>\n -1.11<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +129<\/p>\n 46.2<\/p>\n 7.01<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -125<\/p>\n 4.87<\/p>\n 6.5<\/p>\n O -115<\/p>\n 7.07<\/p>\n 1.41<\/p>\n -156<\/p>\n 53.8<\/p>\n -12.58<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -104<\/p>\n -18.13<\/p>\n U -105<\/p>\n -10.66<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n -102<\/p>\n 47.7<\/p>\n -5.30<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +122<\/p>\n -9.47<\/p>\n 8.0<\/p>\n O -110<\/p>\n 8.65<\/p>\n -3.99<\/p>\n -118<\/p>\n 52.4<\/p>\n -3.60<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -160<\/p>\n -3.77<\/p>\n U -110<\/p>\n -5.10<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +113<\/p>\n 46.5<\/p>\n -1.30<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -132<\/p>\n -2.03<\/p>\n 9.0<\/p>\n O -108<\/p>\n 9.44<\/p>\n -9.65<\/p>\n -136<\/p>\n 53.5<\/p>\n -6.88<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +101<\/p>\n -11.04<\/p>\n U -112<\/p>\n 0.49<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +159<\/p>\n 39.0<\/p>\n -0.73<\/p>\n +1.5<\/p>\n -131<\/p>\n -4.20<\/p>\n 9.0<\/p>\n O -105<\/p>\n 9.71<\/p>\n -3.16<\/p>\n -194<\/p>\n 61.0<\/p>\n -6.54<\/p>\n -1.5<\/p>\n +109<\/p>\n -4.55<\/p>\n U -115<\/p>\n -5.77<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +135<\/p>\n 40.4<\/p>\n -5.20<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -114<\/p>\n -5.75<\/p>\n 7.5<\/p>\n O -112<\/p>\n 7.83<\/p>\n -10.07<\/p>\n -163<\/p>\n 59.7<\/p>\n -3.74<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -114<\/p>\n -6.53<\/p>\n U -108<\/p>\n 1.09<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n -207<\/p>\n 68.4<\/p>\n 3.15<\/p>\n -1.5<\/p>\n -112<\/p>\n 7.46<\/p>\n 7.5<\/p>\n O -105<\/p>\n 7.93<\/p>\n -5.25<\/p>\n +169<\/p>\n 31.6<\/p>\n -18.09<\/p>\n +1.5<\/p>\n -108<\/p>\n -16.74<\/p>\n U -115<\/p>\n -3.77<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +149<\/p>\n 46.1<\/p>\n 15.46<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n +101<\/p>\n 14.61<\/p>\n 8.0<\/p>\n O -110<\/p>\n 8.03<\/p>\n -14.09<\/p>\n -181<\/p>\n 53.9<\/p>\n -16.74<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -131<\/p>\n -24.21<\/p>\n U -110<\/p>\n 5.00<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n -143<\/p>\n 60.5<\/p>\n 4.51<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -114<\/p>\n 2.83<\/p>\n 8.0<\/p>\n O -108<\/p>\n 7.90<\/p>\n -15.89<\/p>\n +119<\/p>\n 39.5<\/p>\n -15.69<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -114<\/p>\n -15.11<\/p>\n U -112<\/p>\n 6.62<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n -120<\/p>\n 55.7<\/p>\n 3.60<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +106<\/p>\n 1.70<\/p>\n 7.5<\/p>\n O +100<\/p>\n 7.86<\/p>\n -4.34<\/p>\n +100<\/p>\n 44.3<\/p>\n -13.02<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -138<\/p>\n -12.68<\/p>\n U -120<\/p>\n -4.36<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n -102<\/p>\n 50.7<\/p>\n 1.10<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n +122<\/p>\n -2.16<\/p>\n 8.0<\/p>\n O -110<\/p>\n 8.61<\/p>\n -4.64<\/p>\n -118<\/p>\n 49.3<\/p>\n -9.57<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -159<\/p>\n -8.89<\/p>\n U -110<\/p>\n -4.45<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +139<\/p>\n 49.5<\/p>\n 18.59<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -109<\/p>\n 14.18<\/p>\n 8.5<\/p>\n O -105<\/p>\n 9.29<\/p>\n -0.10<\/p>\n -168<\/p>\n 50.5<\/p>\n -19.63<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -119<\/p>\n -25.56<\/p>\n U -115<\/p>\n -8.71<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +163<\/p>\n 36.1<\/p>\n -6.87<\/p>\n +1.5<\/p>\n -131<\/p>\n -8.85<\/p>\n 8.5<\/p>\n O -112<\/p>\n 9.30<\/p>\n -2.82<\/p>\n -199<\/p>\n 63.9<\/p>\n -2.95<\/p>\n -1.5<\/p>\n +109<\/p>\n 0.97<\/p>\n U -108<\/p>\n -6.28<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n +123<\/p>\n 42.7<\/p>\n -4.76<\/p>\n +1.0<\/p>\n -125<\/p>\n -5.09<\/p>\n 7.5<\/p>\n O -115<\/p>\n 8.14<\/p>\n -6.33<\/p>\n -149<\/p>\n 57.3<\/p>\n -4.26<\/p>\n -1.0<\/p>\n -104<\/p>\n -7.28<\/p>\n U -105<\/p>\n -2.58<\/p>\n Top betting trends<\/p>\n Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n Texas Rangers<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.26 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height in the league.<\/p>\n
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Del Castillo has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls since the start of last season. His 19.3 degree mark is among the highest in the league.<\/p>\n
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Heineman’s average exit velocity of 84.5 mph ranks among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.<\/p>\n
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park has the second-deepest center field dimensions in the majors.<\/p>\n
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Cal Raleigh<\/a>, Seattle’s expected catcher in todays game, projects as an elite pitch framer.<\/p>\n
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Busch Stadium has the second-deepest right field dimensions in the majors.<\/p>\n
LINE<\/p>\n
WIN%<\/p>\n
LINE<\/p>\n
TOTAL<\/p>\n
The Rangers have gone over their team total through five innings in six straight games. (+6.20 Units \/ 91% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -130<\/p>\n