If you want a fun manufactured game, create a BINGO card full of all the NHL player clich\u00e9s sermonized during between-period interviews. You\u2019ve witnessed these interviews \u2014 they sound vaguely like they were scripted by ChatGPT. Invariably, you will hear players talk about how \u201cwe gotta control the zone,\u201d \u201cget pressure deep,\u201d and \u201ccontrol play.\u201d<\/p>\n
It makes for boring television, but to me, while some of it may be scripted, I think \u201csystem talk\u201d is ingrained in NHL players. Every team claims to have a \u201csystem,\u201d but the goal is usually the same \u2014 spend a greater proportion of time in your opponent\u2019s zone and control the pace of play.<\/p>\n
Offensively, there are essentially two ways to enter the zone: either through a controlled entry or a dump-in\/forecheck. The most effective controlled-entry teams are generally those with players skilled enough to carry or pass the puck through transition. The most effective forechecking teams can be identified by high-pressure rates and puck-retrieval success. Basically, efficiency is measured by the percentage of dump-ins that turn into sustained possession.<\/p>\n
The same holds true in the defensive end. Teams can be categorized as either dump-out or controlled-exit teams. The prevailing wisdom is that controlled entries and exits lead to more shots on net and a higher expected goals percentage. Dump-ins, or dump-outs, are safer, but ultimately you are giving the puck back to your opponent.<\/p>\n
Some key metrics used to define system hockey include controlled-entry percentage, entry denial rate (defensively), dump-in recovery rate, and offensive-zone scoring chances after entry.<\/p>\n
For a benchmark, let\u2019s look at some of the top teams in the league. The Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers are elite controlled-entry teams that are speed-driven. The Carolina Hurricanes feature a dump-in-heavy approach but have elite retrieval. The Vegas Golden Knights feature a balanced, structured forecheck.<\/p>\n
What type of team are the Winnipeg Jets, and why does that matter?<\/p>\n
The data here is multi-sourced, but kudos to Cory Sznajder\u2019s compilation on the All Three Zones website. The analysis provided covers a three-year span. Whatever your view of the Winnipeg Jets, it must be pointed out that since the start of the 2022\u201323 season, the Jets have the fourth-most combined wins during that stretch. They trail only the Carolina Hurricanes (1), Colorado Avalanche (2), and Dallas Stars (3). Moving forward, brackets will indicate a team\u2019s placement in overall wins since 2022\u201323.<\/p>\n
In what situations are the Jets creating their offense? Since 2022\u201323, the Jets have been an above-average dump-and-chase team and a below-average controlled-entry team. The Hurricanes (1) and Florida Panthers (10) are in an echelon of their own on the forecheck, while the Avalanche (2) and New Jersey Devils (14) are teams that excel at controlled entries.<\/p>\n
However, that is just one piece of the puzzle. Whether you are gaining entry via a dump-in or a controlled entry, it matters significantly how you convert those entries into scoring chances. The Jets are above average at this, albeit not top 10 in the league. It comes as no shock that the Oilers (6), Tampa Bay Lightning (7), and Avalanche (2) lead the field in this metric.<\/p>\n
Statistically, who are the Jets best forecheckers? It\u2019s who you might expect. Based on recovered dump-ins per 60 minutes, Cole Koepke and Morgan Barron lead the way. If you combine forecheck pressure per 60 minutes Koepke is the standout. He is a player that the Jets should strongly consider re-investing in. His speed is undeniable, and despite a lack of finishing touch, he is an ideal bottom six forward.<\/p>\n
Controlled zone entries are calculated via zone entries per 60 minutes combined with carry-in percentage. From 2022-23, Nikolaj Ehlers recorded the three best combined tallies for the Winnipeg Jets. He keeps good company in this regard, keeping pace with Connor McDavid and Nathan McKinnon. Predictably, now the Jets rely on Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor to carry the puck in, with Cole Perfetti being more proficient than I would have guessed. The issue is, beyond that, the Jets don\u2019t have the personnel to control entry the puck. All the remaining Jets forwards are below average in this regard.<\/p>\n
Where the Jets have excelled since 2022\u201323 is with controlled defensive-zone exits, although less so this year. That means the Jets have been effective at exiting their defensive zone with possession of the puck. They share this distinction with the Boston Bruins (5), Tampa Bay Lightning (7), and Vegas Golden Knights (8). This is why, in two of the last four years (2023 and 2024), the Winnipeg Jets have allowed the fewest goals per game in a season. Their Vezina-calibre goalie certainly plays a significant role, but the Jets\u2019 gameplay in their own end has also contributed to this success.<\/p>\n