Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
With North American consumer demand for automobiles remaining \u201cresilient\u201d in the first quarter, TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison expects few negative surprises during earnings season.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur Q1\/26E EBITDA\/EPS estimates are in line-to-nominally below consensus,\u201d he said. \u201cWe believe global production trends are in line with expectations, and that operational excellence\/restructuring initiatives should benefit margin performance. We expect MGA\/ MRE\/LNR to all maintain their 2026 guidance, complemented by active Q1\/26 NCIBs for each company.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr. Morrison said production was \u201cmodestly\u201d lower year-over-year, leading to U.S. dealer inventories \u201cremaining lean.\u201d He sees that as \u201ca positive setup\u201d for parts suppliers \u201cshould we see Middle East conflict resolution, and consumer confidence to be maintained\/improve.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe made modest operational updates to our financial forecast for our suppliers under coverage,\u201d he added. \u201cOur view remains that stable production should be augmented by operating efficiencies\/improved contract economics. Our revision to Magna accounts for its recent divestiture of its Lighting & Rooftop Systems being accounted for as a discontinued operation, and another recent acquisition by Linamar, utilizing the strength of its balance sheet to take advantage of takeover opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cPotential Catalysts: For the group – conflict resolution, consumer affordability maintaining consumer resiliency, forecast 2027 year-over-year production increase.\u201d<\/p>\n
Seeing \u201cconsumer resiliency, potential conflict resolution, USMCA clarity, and positive year-over-year financial performance\u201d providing potential catalysts \u201csupporting improved investor confidence\/applied valuations,\u201d Mr. Morrison made one target adjustment, raising Linamar Corp. (LNR-T<\/a>) to $116 from $114, remaining a high on the Street, with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating (unchanged). The average is $104.25.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are positive on the outlook for Linamar, largely due to the forecast growth within its Mobility segment from recent acquisitions, organic CPV growth, and anticipated margin expansion,\u201d said Mr. Morrison. \u201cWe remain cautious with respect to the near-term Industrial outlook but view 2026 as the potential trough prior to benefiting from the cycle improving in 2027. A strong FCF profile and financial position are supportive of additional M&A opportunities, and commitment to its NCIB. This could result in upward revisions to our financial forecast, that along with an uptick in the Industrial cycle, should improve its valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n His other targets are:<\/p>\n * Magna International Inc. (MGA-N<\/a>\/MG-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) at US$75. Average: US$66.46.<\/p>\n Analyst: \u201cWhile Magna does not represent the most upside to our supplier target prices, it remains our top pick currently due to the uncertain macro environment\/trading liquidity relative to the group. We forecast in a flat production environment that Magna can drive margin\/FCF improvement through operating efficiencies\/improving contract economics. This, along with strong FCF\/financial position, supports its active NCIB. Upon visibility that the consumer can remain resilient, this should support improvement to its below-average valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n * Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) at $15 (Street-high). Average: $12.67.<\/p>\n Analyst: \u201cWhile the Q1\/26 results may not prove a catalyst event, we see tremendous value at the current share price AND opportunities to potentially surface value to a degree during the remainder of the year. This includes non-core asset monetization, an ongoing NCIB, new business wins from nearshoring, strong FCF, and meeting\/exceeding financial guidance.\u201d<\/p>\n Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N<\/a>, QSR-T<\/a>) possesses \u201csolid underlying momentum with room for further upside\u201d ahead of the release of its first-quarter results on May 6, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich.<\/p>\n \u201cWe think QSR\u2019s positive momentum continued through Q1 where Burger King and international segments have been the standouts recently,\u201d he said. \u201cBK U.S. has further room for improvement, in our view, given ongoing renovations, menu innovation, and more impactful marketing targeted towards key demos. International strength has been broad-based across key BK markets where consensus expectations appear relatively conservative. Tim Hortons could start to be impacted by slower Canadian population growth, though continues to outperform the category. Despite recent outperformance, we think the stock has further room for upside where the multiple is still a high-teens discount vs. mature global quick-service peers.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Reich is now projecting a financial beat for Restaurant Brands, touting a \u201cpositive\u201d risk-reward proposition for its shares as well as encouraging investor sentiment.<\/p>\n \u201cBurger King continues to gain momentum as renovations drive upside with room for further improvement given only 58 per cent of stores were at modern image at the end of 4Q25,\u201d he noted. \u201cAnd while elevated beef prices are slowing the pace of renovations, we think the brand is approaching critical mass of Modern Image locations which is driving a positive halo effect on the entire brand\u2019s consumer proposition. Combined with menu innovation (improved Whopper + social media buzz certainly doesn\u2019t hurt) and updated marketing strategy (targeting kids & families), we see room for upside to SSS [same-store sales] estimates in Q1 (Street at 2.7 per cent) and FY26 (Street at 2.3 per cent). <\/p>\n \u201cTim Hortons missed SSS in 4Q, where heading into \u201926, Canadian macro could be more of a headwind year-over-year. As we previously wrote, Canadian population is expected to be flat year-over-year in \u201926 (from 0.9 per cent in \u201925 and 3.0 per cent in \u201924), which could limit upside to Street\u2019s 2.6-per-cent\/2.5-per-cent Q1\/FY26 estimates (though 2H comps could benefit from Canadian Tire partnership). For Q1, the focus remains on performance relative to broader Canadian quickservice market, specifically on food, cold beverages, and PM daypart.\u201d<\/p>\n Reaffirming his \u201coutperform\u201d rating for the Toronto-based company\u2019s shares, Mr. Reich raised his target to US$90, equally the high on the Street, from US$83, citing \u201chigher confidence in top-line growth.\u201d The average is US$80.47.<\/p>\n \u201cWe continue to view QSR as a top idea among the global franchised fast food group,\u201d he said. \u201cWe see potentially improving Burger King U.S. trends, accelerating development, and shifts in capital allocation (toward growth investments and reduction in leverage) driving stock performance. Relative valuation for QSR remains compelling (15 times 2027E P\/E versus global peer average of 18 times), in our view, particularly as we are taking a more cautious stance on the overall group.\u201d<\/p>\n National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu thinks 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T<\/a>) is poised to benefit from a re-rating in the defence supply chain.<\/p>\n In a client note released before the bell titled Magnifying the Re-Rating; Duration, Scarcity & Strategic Relevance, he argues a tense geopolitical environment has helped establish the strategic importance of the Montreal-based producer of specialty semiconductors and performance materials, and he sees growth continuing with \u201cdefence demanding accelerating, supporting upside.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe broader valuation backdrop has become more supportive for VNP, with defence comps forward EV\/EBITDA on 2027E re-rating from 15.2 times at year-end 2025 to 18.0 times currently while VNP moved from 12.5 times to 18.2 times,\u201d he explained. \u201cThe multiple expansion has been supported by improving demand visibility and capacity expansion across the sector. Recent developments in the Iran conflict highlight structural supply constraints, with precision-guided missile systems produced at relatively low volumes (600\u20131,000 annually) and requiring 1\u20132 years to replenish, underscoring the need for sustained investment. Of note, germanium is an important input in many modern precision-guided munitions, particularly those using thermal targeting and infrared (IR) seeker systems, reinforcing VNP\u2019s relevance within this supply chain.<\/p>\n \u201cIn response, U.S. defence spending is accelerating, with $24.7-billion already allocated toward munitions expansion and a potential $20\u201350-billion supplemental under consideration, alongside plans to increase production of critical weapons by 2\u20134x. This should drive investment across the defence supply chain, from missile primes (i.e., Lockheed and RTX) to propulsion and subsystem suppliers, including solid-rocket motor suppliers (Northrop and L3Harris) and critical components like seekers (Boeing and BAE Systems). Major defence contractors and key suppliers are expected to boost capex (approximately 3.5 per cent of sales, up 120 basis points year-over-year) to expand capacity, with demand flowing through to subsystem and component providers across propulsion, sensing, and electronics. We believe VNP is seeing increased engagement from major U.S. defence contractors, supporting its positioning within this ecosystem.<\/p>\n Mr. Sidhu maintained his first-quarter forecast for 5N Plus, which currently tops the Street\u2019s expectations for revenue and adjusted EBITDA by almost 10 per cent ($111.4-million and $24.9-million, respectively, versus $102.4-million and $22.1-million). He emphasized investors \u201ccould see it print its ninth consecutive beat.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cAmid geopolitical volatility, supply chain security and domestic sourcing of critical materials are driving VNP\u2019s 100-per-cent year-to-date rally,\u201d he added. \u201cThe company has no direct exposure to disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, while customer priorities are shifting from price competitiveness (vs. China) to reliability of supply; structurally favouring VNP. This shift is reflected in procurement decisions, with First Solar set to transition its CdSe supply to VNP (from a fully China-based supplier) starting H2\/26E.<\/p>\n \u201cRising defence demand is also contributing to VNP\u2019s recent share strength, with suggested customer engagement materially up over the past six months and accelerating more recently. Momentum is strongest in the U.S., where major defence contractors are actively evaluating VNP\u2019s capacity, delivery timelines, and capabilities across germanium, detectors, and optics. We expect AZUR\u2019s strong growth to continue, supported by backlog-driven capacity expansions (25-per-cent additional capacity underway), with geopolitical tailwinds reinforcing demand, underpinning further backlog growth and incremental expansion.\u201d<\/p>\n Also touting \u201cstrong visibility and steady execution,\u201d Mr. Sidhu raised his target for 5N Plus shares to $38, matching the high on the Street from $33, keeping an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $33.50.<\/p>\n \u201cOperational momentum remains strong, driven by space solar demand across commercial, defence, and satellite constellations, supported by a highly active pipeline,\u201d he said. \u201cVisibility is robust, with 2026 fully sold out, 2027 largely contracted, and backlog extending into 2030. AZUR\u2019s capacity expansion is advancing, with new reactor installations aligned to contracted demand. Growth remains volume-driven, with pricing sustained at elevated levels amid tight supply-demand dynamics. Energy exposure is manageable, with limited impact from recent volatility and partial pass-through mechanisms in place.\u201d<\/p>\n Superior Plus Corp.\u2019s (SPB-T<\/a>) announcement<\/a> of a $300-million, 2.5-year data centre power contract for its wholly owned subsidiary Certarus Ltd. is \u201ca clear positive,\u201d according to TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil, seeing it come \u201cat a time when energy demand [is] positioned for positive inflection.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cGiven the ongoing Iran war and increase in crude oil prices, Certarus was already well positioned for a recovery in the business,\u201d he said. \u201cThis growth vertical outside of its core upstream oil and gas market will likely further support a strengthening outlook for this business.<\/p>\n \u201cAt steady state, the project is expected to require 200 CNG transport trailers and ancillary equipment. Some portion of the required trailers could be sourced from the existing fleet. However, given current high utilization and the scale of the project, incremental trailers and associated capital are likely in our view. This likely pushes out management\u2019s debt reduction target beyond the end of 2027 given the timing of spend and the ramp in cash flows, although it does represent a meaningful growth avenue which will naturally result in a lower leverage ratio on a forward-looking basis.\u201d<\/p>\n While noting key data points around margin and return expectations as well as capital commitments are not expected to be revealed until the release of first-quarter disclosures on May 13, Mr. MacNeil said \u201cpotential investors must believe these opportunities will persist in the future given a large contract cliff.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile our estimates do not extend out to 2030, this contract embeds longer-term risk to the business given its size,\u201d he added. \u201cTo the extent that these data center opportunities do not reoccur in the future, this market could be at risk of becoming materially oversupplied.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAt least initially, we\u2019ve assumed $150-million of capital distributed evenly over the next six quarters, and a $48-million\/year step up in consolidated EBITDA beginning in Q3\/27. As noted above, we expect management to provide a more detailed update with Q1\/26 results on May 13, 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n Maintaining his \u201chold\u201d recommendation for Superior Plus shares, Mr. MacNeil bumped his target to $7.50 from $7. The average is <\/p>\n \u201cWith three consecutive quarters featuring material negative surprises, as well as two consecutive years of annual guidance misses, we believe that Superior Plus is in \u2018show me\u2019 territory,\u201d he concluded. \u201cWe view this contract as positive, but would like to see several consecutive quarters of meeting expectations before we get more constructive on this name. As a result, we are maintaining our HOLD rating.\u201d<\/p>\n Precious metals equity analysts at TD Cowen expect a \u201cstrong\u201d first quarter for the sector, seeing all-in sustaining cost margins \u201creaching record highs driven by the gold price, despite weaker Q1 seasonality.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cWe remain constructive on precious metals, supported by the ongoing dedollarization trade, persistent inflation, and easing rates,\u201d they added. \u201cWe have made only minor changes to our deck, upping 2026 prices slightly.\u201d<\/p>\n In a research report released before the bell, the analysts think the appreciation in the price of gold should \u201cdrive record margins, despite energy cost pressures.\u201d They now see prices \u201cstabilizing amid geopolitical tensions\u201d but emphasize the outlook \u201cremains strong.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cDespite Q1 generally being the seasonally weakest quarter for producers, we are expecting a strong Q1 driven by record gold prices,\u201d they said. \u201cWhile recent increases in energy costs are likely to start causing cost pressures, we expect most of the impact to start being felt in Q2, and should be offset by higher metal prices. We forecast AISC margins expanding 17 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $2,974\/oz, with sector FCF of $6.5-billion lower due to slow seasonal tax and profit sharing payments. We expect further capital return increases (buybacks and dividends). <\/p>\n \u201cQ1 saw another record-high average price of $4,875\/oz, up 17 per cent from Q4\u2019s $4,153 average. While the war in Iran, along with higher inflation expectations, a stronger USD, and elevated yields have caused some short-term weakness in gold, we view the resulting price pressure as transitory. Looking ahead, the focus is shifting to the conflict\u2019s economic impact, with rising stagflation risks historically supportive for gold. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, central bank demand, and a supportive rate backdrop should underpin gold strength later in 2026. We have made only minor changes to our deck, increasing 2026 prices slightly.\u201d<\/p>\n With that adjustment, the analysts made several target price changes to stocks in their coverage universe. For senior and intermediate producers, their changes are:<\/p>\n Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N<\/a>\/AEM-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to US$252 from US$251. The average is US$260.32.Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to US$78 from US$70. Average: US$58.78.Endeavour Mining PLC (EDV-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $105 from $94. Average: $102.48.Newmont Corp. (NEM-N<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to US$116 from US$118. Average: US$154.10.OceanaGold Corp. (OGC-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $56 from $55. Average: $67.50.<\/p>\n “Our top picks include Agnico Eagle, Barrick, IAMGOLD, K92, and Equinox. Among the royalties our top pick is Royal Gold, and Coeur among the silvers,” they said.<\/p>\n Ahead of earnings season in Canada\u2019s energy sector, Scotia Capital analyst Kevin Fisk named Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T<\/a>) as his top large-cap stock, expecting its free cash flow to \u201cincrease meaningfully as growth spending declines and production increases.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cAdditionally, higher commodity prices accelerate CVE\u2019s debt repayment and at $75 WTI the company could achieve its $6-billion net debt target by year-end 2026 (although a dividend increase or working capital build could delay this by a quarter),\u201d he said. \u201cAchieving the $6-billion net debt target would increase shareholder returns from 50 per cent to 75 per cent of FCF after dividends. We also like CNQ and believe the current share price offers a good entry point and the company\u2019s underperformance year-to-date has been overdone. CNQ also has the most exposure to elevated SCO prices. We have a Sector Perform rating on SU, but view it as a good option for investors looking for a resilient business in a volatile commodity market.<\/p>\n \u201cWCP and OVV are our top Mid-cap picks. WCP is a solid operator with a number of upcoming operational catalysts including the ramp-up of the Lator facility in Q4\/26 (35-40 mboe\/d), plug-and-perf wells will be piloted at Gold Creek\/Karr and have the potential to reduce well costs by $1-million-$1.5-million per well, and the realization of the additional Veren Inc. synergies that have been identified. OVV is also a strong operator and we believe its\u00a0Midland assets hold underappreciated value. On strip, WCP and OVV have attractive 2027 DAFCF yields of 10 per cent and 14 per cent vs peers at 6-10 per cent. We also want to highlight\u00a0TPZ\u00a0as our top royalty pick.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Fisk maintained his \u201csector outperform\u201d rating and $38 target for Cenovus. The average on the Street is $40.30.<\/p>\n He also made several target price changes in his coverage universe on Tuesday. For large-cap stocks, his lone change was Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $90 from $85. The average is $93.54.<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * With its deal to be acquired<\/a> by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. for up to $2.9-billion in stock and cash, ATB Cormark\u2019s Stefan Ioannou moved Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP-T<\/a>)\u00a0to \u201ctender\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d and cut his target to $15 from $22. The average is $12.<\/p>\n \u201cBottom line, we view the offer as fair, also noting the proposed transaction is accompanied by offers from Agnico to acquire other key third-party properties in the area\u2014importantly consolidating a property position in support of optimized\/timely Ikkari development, which previously arguably hindered Rupert\u2019s market valuation,\u201c said Mr. Ioannou. \u201cFurthermore, the company\u2019s shareholders maintain exposure to the greater project\u2014now \u2018enhanced\u2019 via Agnico\u2019s seasoned \u2018operatorship\u2019 in Finland (neighbouring Kittil\u00e4 gold mine). As such, we are revising our formal recommendation to Tender (from Outperform) and our target price to $15.00 per share as per the transaction\u2019s implied metrics at the time of announcement (in part reflecting our continued view that Rupert\u2019s CLGB position stands to bear additional fruit over time). Although said new target has been decreased from $22.00 per share, we look to the proposed transaction favourably, cognizant our previous model arguably required relatively heightened investor patience and risk-tolerance associated with a \u2018Rupert-build\u2019 over time\u2014the proverbial \u2018a bird in hand is worth two in the bush\u2019 comes to mind. The key risk to our valuation is Agnico transaction completion (expected in early Q3\/26).\u201d<\/p>\n * In response to last week\u2019s announcement<\/a> it has entered into an arrangement agreement to combine with entities owning a 92-per-cent interest in Sweetwater Royalties from funds managed by Orion Resource Partners LP and the Ontario Teachers\u2019 Pension Plan, Raymond James\u2019 Brian MacArthur upgraded Uranium Royalty Corp.\u00a0(URC-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cmarket perform\u201d with a $6.25 target, up from $5.75 and above the $6.14 average on the Street.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe royalty companies like URC offer equity investors diversified exposure to commodity prices, while mitigating downside risk given limited exposure to operating and capital costs. At the same time, upside optionality exists through exploration and asset expansion potential. URC\u2019s royalty portfolio is focused on uranium assets with lower jurisdictional risk, longer duration, and backed by some strong operators. Given URC\u2019s high-margin business model, its diversification, optionality, favourable jurisdictional risk, and strong balance sheet, we believe URC offers investors a good way to get lower-risk exposure to uranium,\u201d said Mr. MacArthur.<\/p>\n * In a report previewing quarterly earnings for IT Services providers, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Jerome Dubreuil lowered his CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T<\/a>) target to $149 from $157 to reflect lower growth expectations for fiscal 2026. The average is $149.88.<\/p>\n \u201cOver the past several weeks, we have not observed any meaningful change in the IT services demand environment, based on our review of peer results and recent management commentary. While this is reassuring amid disruption fears, management teams at global peers have struggled to articulate the long-term net impact of AI on the industry. Recent commentary has lacked quantification and has often been too general to provide investors with strong conviction. We look forward to hearing more concrete examples from CGI and Alithya on their respective calls,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n