{"id":619072,"date":"2026-04-21T15:29:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/619072\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T15:29:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:29:21","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-tuesday-lean-on-adames-bat-and-bubics-pitching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/619072\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Tuesday: Lean on Adames’ bat and Bubic’s pitching"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 21, 2026, 11:15 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Tuesday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Willy Adames<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.95 EV<\/p>\n

Matt Chapman<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+271)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.54 EV<\/p>\n

Ernie Clement<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+118)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.01 EV<\/p>\n

Hunter Goodman<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+469)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.23 EV<\/p>\n

Kazuma Okamoto<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+810)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.21 EV<\/p>\n

Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga<\/a> | OVER 6.5 K (+116)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.09 EV<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (+104)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.05 EV<\/p>\n

Kris Bubic<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-139)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.62 EV<\/p>\n

Kris Bubic | OVER 6.5 K (+104)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.24 EV<\/p>\n

Ryan Weiss<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-131)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.26 EV<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Ryan Weiss<\/p>\n

+123<\/p>\n

45.5<\/p>\n

1.29<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-124<\/p>\n

-0.68<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

9.11<\/p>\n

0.46<\/p>\n

Parker Messick<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

54.5<\/p>\n

-8.79<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

-12.10<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-9.65<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dustin May<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

50.2<\/p>\n

-0.15<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+121<\/p>\n

-3.71<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.87<\/p>\n

-9.65<\/p>\n

Chris Paddack<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

49.8<\/p>\n

-8.40<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-158<\/p>\n

-7.85<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

0.67<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chase Burns<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

55.6<\/p>\n

6.76<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+115<\/p>\n

5.93<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O +100<\/p>\n

7.91<\/p>\n

-3.64<\/p>\n

Steven Matz<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

44.4<\/p>\n

-16.03<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-150<\/p>\n

-15.45<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

-5.00<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kyle Harrison<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

54.3<\/p>\n

6.93<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+118<\/p>\n

5.01<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -107<\/p>\n

8.97<\/p>\n

-6.08<\/p>\n

Keider Montero<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

45.7<\/p>\n

-15.44<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-154<\/p>\n

-14.51<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-2.61<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Luis Gil<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

45.5<\/p>\n

-12.47<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+117<\/p>\n

-16.52<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

8.80<\/p>\n

-8.02<\/p>\n

Connelly Early<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

54.6<\/p>\n

3.26<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-153<\/p>\n

1.75<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-1.12<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

49.3<\/p>\n

-14.12<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-19.00<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

8.87<\/p>\n

-6.87<\/p>\n

Foster Griffin<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

50.7<\/p>\n

7.59<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

6.44<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-2.22<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Simeon Woods Richard<\/p>\n

+149<\/p>\n

40.8<\/p>\n

1.62<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

0.98<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

7.86<\/p>\n

-6.72<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean<\/p>\n

-181<\/p>\n

59.2<\/p>\n

-8.11<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-128<\/p>\n

-12.26<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-2.37<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shane Baz<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

35.9<\/p>\n

-26.31<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-137<\/p>\n

-25.35<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.83<\/p>\n

-19.46<\/p>\n

Kris Bubic<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

64.1<\/p>\n

14.16<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+106<\/p>\n

17.11<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

10.13<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jesus Luzardo<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

46.9<\/p>\n

-4.60<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-155<\/p>\n

-4.45<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

7.92<\/p>\n

-23.00<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

53.1<\/p>\n

-3.98<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

-8.20<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

13.61<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Carmen Mlodzinski<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

50.0<\/p>\n

0.36<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

-0.80<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.97<\/p>\n

-6.59<\/p>\n

Kumar Rocker<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

50.0<\/p>\n

-8.66<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+120<\/p>\n

-12.99<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-2.52<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Randy Vasquez<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

59.4<\/p>\n

0.33<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-124<\/p>\n

-0.84<\/p>\n

11.0<\/p>\n

O -110<\/p>\n

12.58<\/p>\n

8.95<\/p>\n

Brennan Bernardino<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

40.6<\/p>\n

-10.30<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

-11.93<\/p>\n

U -110<\/p>\n

-18.04<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Patrick Corbin<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

44.4<\/p>\n

-13.74<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+116<\/p>\n

-19.06<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

9.26<\/p>\n

-16.90<\/p>\n

Jack Kochanowicz<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

55.6<\/p>\n

4.36<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-151<\/p>\n

3.94<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

9.34<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sean Burke<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

44.4<\/p>\n

0.92<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-0.45<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

9.55<\/p>\n

-9.01<\/p>\n

Merrill Kelly<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

55.6<\/p>\n

-8.22<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-11.83<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

0.01<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jacob Lopez<\/p>\n

+141<\/p>\n

45.4<\/p>\n

9.82<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

9.00<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.35<\/p>\n

-1.84<\/p>\n

Luis Castillo<\/p>\n

-171<\/p>\n

54.6<\/p>\n

-13.74<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-124<\/p>\n

-20.21<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-7.29<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

57.3<\/p>\n

-10.79<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

-11.65<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.44<\/p>\n

10.07<\/p>\n

Landen Roupp<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

42.7<\/p>\n

6.21<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

2.36<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-19.95<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/a> Moneyline:
The Athletics have won this bet in six straight away games. (+8.60 Units \/ 143% ROI). Current odds: +141<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/a> Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under in seven straight games. (+7.40 Units \/ 94% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +114<\/p>\n

Kansas City Royals<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Royals have gone under in the first five innings in seven straight games. (+7.15 Units \/ 85% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -135<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 21, 2026, 11:15 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":619073,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":["post-619072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}