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Nanos told The Hill Times that, when it comes to the question of a referendum on sovereignty in two provinces, Carney has \u201cprobably handled it best that he could,\u201d adding that \u201cthe worst thing that he can do is intervene.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSetting aside the fact that [Carney] does consider himself an Edmontonian and Albertan because of his youth [spent there], he still has to be very careful on how he treads on this because, I think the fact of the matter is, for many of these referendums, the voters tend to prefer that there aren\u2019t external players in these referendums, one way or another,\u201d said Nanos. <\/p>\n \u201cI think, for the prime minister, what he has to hope for is that these things are decisively put to rest so that he can focus on attracting investment, and not having to answer any questions about Alberta separation or the possible win of a PQ government in Quebec.\u201d<\/p>\n In terms of the economic repercussions of sovereignty referendums, Nanos said much will rest on the final number of votes.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it\u2019s a decisive rejection of separation [in Alberta], [Carney will] be able to put it behind him, in terms of having to deal with that issue. If it\u2019s a significant proportion of the population, I think especially if it\u2019s anything over 40, then that casts a different pall, in terms of a significant proportion of people, at least in Alberta, believing that they have a better future outside of Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n Data released by Nanos Research<\/a> on April 16 shows Canadians rate Carney 7.2 out of 10 in his contribution to making Canada a better country\u2014an all-time high. These numbers are based on hybrid telephone and online survey results from 1,007 Canadians ages 18 years or older between Feb. 8 and Feb. 16.<\/p>\n The Hill Times reached out to the Prime Minister\u2019s Office to ask about Carney facing a national-unity challenge amid provincial referendum questions, but did not receive a response by deadline.<\/p>\n Brexit an example of how separatist feelings affect a national economy: Trevor Trombe<\/p>\n Colin Busby, the C.D. Howe Institute\u2019s director of policy engagement, told The Hill Times that besides the investment uncertainty created by separation talk, Canada faces financial turbulence with the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in July.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat I think we\u2019re trying to all understand is the level of perceived threat and perceived risk, and how great that is, and that really is kind of a \u2018to be determined\u2019 at this point in time,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cThe greater threat to investment confidence right now, in my opinion, is the threat coming externally through the CUSMA trade negotiations.\u201d<\/p>\n During the Intersect 2026 conference in Toronto on April 22, former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said that, while he doesn\u2019t expect separatists to win in the province, he warned that if relations between Ottawa and Alberta do not improve, separatists could garner a substantial number of votes, and that would create \u201ca permanent divisive fact in our politics,\u201d as reported<\/a> in The Globe and Mail.<\/p>\n Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told The Hill Times he agrees with Kenney that \u201cthis thing could just explode in Alberta if we\u2019re not careful.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you take a look at what is driving the separatist feelings in the province of Alberta, it\u2019s not really about separatism. It\u2019s really about grievance with \u2026 the perceived view of the way Alberta is treated by the federal government,\u201d Bricker said. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not that people in Alberta who are supportive of voting \u2018yes\u2019 in a referendum have given a tremendous amount of thought to what happens the day after. The point is really more about how the system isn\u2019t working for them, and they want to send a very strong signal to the rest of the country, and especially to Ottawa, that the country, as it\u2019s currently working is not working for them, in their view.\u201d<\/p>\n Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, told The Hill Times that the desire for separation in Alberta and Quebec could have \u201cconsiderable effect on investment.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAnytime you have uncertainty about the economic or policy landscape ahead, you, as a firm, might naturally pause investment until some of that uncertainty is resolved,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cBecause that ultimately would lead to bigger regulatory differences between jurisdictions that can affect your ability to trade across borders, operate subsidiaries across borders, and therefore lowers the return to investments.<\/p>\n As an example of the effect of separation sentiment on a national economy, Trombe pointed to Brexit, the formal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union in 2020.<\/p>\n A 2025 study<\/a> led by researchers at King\u2019s Business School, Stanford University, the Bank of England, and the University of Nottingham found that Brexit reduced the United Kingdom\u2019s GDP by six to eight per cent, and investment by 12 to 18 per cent by early 2025.<\/p>\n \u201cIf this goes forward, and especially if the vote itself is at a meaningful share of the population, say 20 to 30 per cent \u2026 then the uncertainty will remain for many years to come because it will effectively demonstrate a non-trivial share of the population is interested in this, and therefore we should expect pressure to separate to continue. Quebec saw that when they had a 40 per cent vote in 1980; that it just mounted from there, and wasn\u2019t put to bed until many years later,\u201d said Tombe. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s quite clear that Alberta separation would be worse for both Alberta\u2019s economy and Canada\u2019s, but how best governments should approach diffusing this kind of pressure, I don\u2019t know. Other than to say that it is an issue that is certainly not helping Canada\u2019s economy, and should be a priority issue for governments to try to resolve in a way that doesn\u2019t inflame tensions further.\u201d<\/p>\n Carney \u2018irresponsible\u2019 for not calling out Smith\u2019s separation talk: NDP MP McPherson<\/p>\n NDP MP Heather McPherson (Edmonton Strathcona, Alta.), her party\u2019s foreign affairs, trade and development critic, told The Hill Times that \u201cevery single politician in this country should be unequivocally saying that Canada is stronger with Alberta and Quebec,\u201d adding that \u201cwe should be calling out leaders that are spreading divisive politics.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis threat is not good for any Canadians. It\u2019s not good for our economy. It\u2019s not good for the services Canadians depend upon. It is a threat, and we should be taking it seriously,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n McPherson said she was \u201cdisappointed\u201d in Carney, in terms of his response to the question of national unity in the face of separatist sentiment in Alberta and Quebec.<\/p>\n \u201cI think about the Canada Health Act. I think about our Canada Pension Plan. These are things that the prime minister should be standing up and protecting, instead of allowing [Alberta Premier] Danielle Smith to continue to take swings at our cherished public health care system, or at our cherished Canada Pension Plan,\u201d said McPherson. <\/p>\n \u201cAllowing that backsliding is not helping to protect the federation. It\u2019s a mistake. Mr. Carney is making a mistake. And instead of calling out Danielle Smith when she plays games with separatists, he rewards her for that behaviour by signing an MOU with her. That\u2019s irresponsible.\u201d<\/p>\n Smith\u2019s government passed Bill 11, the Health Statutes Amendment Act 2025 (No.2) in the Alberta Legislature on Nov. 24, 2025, establishing a two-tier health care system allowing physicians to work concurrently in public and private systems while enabling private payment for insured services. Critics, such as the Council of Canadians, have argued the bill creates<\/a> a \u201cfor-profit fast lane\u201d for the wealthy, and \u201ca slower, public lane for those who can\u2019t afford to pay.\u201d<\/p>\n In May 2025, Smith paused plans to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan in favour of a provincial pension plan, citing a lack of public appetite<\/a> for a vote on the subject.<\/p>\n Duane Bratt, a professor and chair in the department of economics, justice, and policy studies at Mount Royal University in Alberta, told The Hill Times that discussions about secession in Alberta and Quebec are not only bad for the economy, but also potentially create other problems, including for labour mobility.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat about labour mobility? Would people be moving to Alberta if there was a risk that Alberta might leave Canada? Would there be people leaving Alberta?\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cWe saw a massive outflow of people in Quebec in the lead up to the 1980 referendum and the election of the PQ in 1976, so we have historical data that it\u2019s not just about investment, it\u2019s also about labour flight.\u201d<\/p>\n Bratt added another concern is the possibility of interference from the U.S. into the Alberta referendum.<\/p>\n Jean-Christophe Boucher, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said that Alberta is \u201cexcessively vulnerable to American interference,\u201d as reported<\/a> by CBC News on March 4, 2026. Boucher argued that in the event of a provincial referendum, \u201cthere would be no one within the Alberta government who could analyze and collect data to ensure that the conversation about the referendum is not being manipulated by foreign actors.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe also have a [U.S.] president who has talked about annexing Canada, and so if he can try to take efforts to break up Canada, that furthers his agenda. It\u2019s a firestorm that Carney is facing\u2014an economic challenge and a political challenge, not just Canada-U.S. relations, but across Canada. That is going to be exploited by the Americans,\u201d said Bratt.<\/p>\n jcnockaert@hilltimes.com<\/p>\n The Hill Times<\/p>\n Nanos Research Data on What Makes Canada a Better Country:<\/p>\n Nearly three in four Canadians (71 per cent) report being satisfied with Canada as a country. This represents a significant increase in the satisfaction of Canadians compared to previous years (60 per cent in 2025; and 52 per cent in 2024). The last witnessed peak of Canadians satisfaction of Canada as a country was 2021 (74 per cent). Across provinces, the highest level of satisfaction (mean of 7.5 on 10) can be witnessed with residents of British Columbia.<\/p>\n Prime Minister Mark Carney was rated a 7.2 out of 10 in terms of his contribution in making Canada a better country. This is an all-time high since the beginning of the tracking in 2021 since which the rating ranged between 5.7 (2021) to a 4.9 (2023).<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s universities and colleges were seen as the highest contributor to making Canada a better country, with a mean of 7.5 out of 10, followed by the health system with a mean score of 7.4. Amongst the provinces, Quebec residents attributed the highest rating to universities and colleges with a mean of 8.1 out of 10, followed by B.C. which received a 7.5 out of 10.<\/p>\n Source: Nanos Research<\/a> data released on April 16, 2026.<\/p>\n \u00a0\n <\/p>\n Jesse Cnockaert is a reporter for The Hill Times, covering lobbying, federal ministers, and important legislation before the House and Senate. As the policy briefings lead, he also covers must-read federal policy issues across a broad range of sectors. Cnockaert started writing for The Hill Times in July 2021 following three years as editor of The Lobby Monitor. He previously worked for Metro Ottawa, and spent eight years covering news for three different municipal newspapers. He can be reached at Jcnockaert@hilltimes.com. See all stories BY JESSE CNOCKAERT<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Separatist sentiment in Alberta and Quebec pose risks to investor confidence that could damage Canada\u2019s economy, presenting a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":629912,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":["post-629911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=629911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629911\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/629912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=629911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=629911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=629911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, says, \u2018the situation in Alberta and Quebec poses a little bit of a challenge for potential investors.\u2019 The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Colin-Busby.t69ea5668.m800.xCRoDFmLK.jpg\")
Colin Busby, director of policy engagement at the C.D. Howe Institute, says the level of perceived threat from referendums in Alberta and Quebec, as well as the CUSMA review, are \u2018to be determined.\u2019\u00a0 Photograph courtesy of the C.D. Howe Institute<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/568A0009.t5a8ee2ef.m800.xwiWk3v2m.jpg\")
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, says the separatist movement in Alberta is \u2018really about grievance.\u2019 The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Trevor-Tombe-Headshot-2024.t67c9e8de.m800.xNQFfUV05.jpg\")
University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe says anytime there is uncertainty about the economic landscape ahead, firms \u2018might naturally pause investment until some of that uncertainty is resolved.\u2019 Photograph courtesy of Trevor Tombe<\/p>\n![\"Heather](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Heather-1-1024x683.jpg\")
NDP leadership candidate Heather McPherson says Carney should be protecting the federation instead of rewarding Smith with an MOU. The Hill Times photograph by Matthew Merkel<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/jesse-cnock.jpg\")
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