The dollar briefly tumbled on Wednesday and Treasury bond yields popped higher on reports citing an unidentified White House official that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell soon, before Trump said he is not planning to do so.<\/p>\n
Stocks also pared the mild losses that came off the original report from Bloomberg.<\/p>\n
Investors had been on edge for weeks about the prospect of Powell being removed from his job before his term ends next May, as Trump has repeatedly criticized him for not cutting U.S. rates quickly enough.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what market players are saying:<\/p>\n
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe President would be making a mistake to fire Chair Powell. Federal Reserve independence is critical to money policy effectiveness, and the last thing the country needs is monetary policy by Presidential fiat. If the President messes with the Chairman, the Congress might use it as an excuse to step in to make changes to the Federal Reserve Act–none of these would be good for monetary policy integrity.\u201d<\/p>\n
CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR US, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:<\/p>\n
\u201cMuch of Fed governance and process is informal, relying on norms and traditions, rather than statute. These norms have been developed over decades and have helped cement the Fed as a credible, trusted, and non-partisan institution that helps to smooth expectations volatility, rather than add to it.<\/p>\n
\u201cMaintaining the current traditions is the best route, but even if an alternative path is taken, there are likely sufficient guardrails to prevent a sustained and significant erosion of Fed credibility. If the new Chair is not viewed as credible and nonpartisan, there risks a serious split on FOMC decisions. In this light, selecting Waller as the replacement makes the most sense,\u201d<\/p>\n
KENNETH BROUX, HEAD OF CORPORATE RESEARCH FX AND RATES, SOCIETE GENERALE, LONDON:<\/p>\n
\u201cThis story keeps churning so understandably markets are nervous that it could happen sooner rather than later re Trump firing Powell. Bond and FX markets do not like the uncertainty. We\u2019ve had stronger U.S. CPI goods ex-autos just yesterday so to think that lower rates are the way forward as tariffs seep through consumer prices is not going to reassure. Hence long end USTs (US Treasuries)selling off versus the front end and the dollar is down.\u201d<\/p>\n
JUAN PEREZ, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON:<\/p>\n
\u201cUltimately, what drives the U.S. dollar up in value against its peers, against everything is the idea that we have a financial system that\u2019s very centered around the U.S. dollar, and it is also a safe-haven asset.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat can kill the value of the U.S. dollar, what can absolutely destroy faith in the U.S. dollar, is attacking in any way, shape, or form the independence and authority of the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, when it comes to respecting and adhering to this concept of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset in the midst of turbulence, that turbulence cannot affect or inflict pain when it comes to the greatest financial authority in the form of the Fed.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut if politics, or if the White House, or if anybody can interfere with that, or wants to actively do so, that is absolutely a very, very negative thing for how the U.S. dollar is viewed, how the U.S. dollar is traded, and how people look at the dollar for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIn times of physical disturbance to the world, of geopolitical conflict, it makes sense to hold on to the U.S. dollar, but you\u2019re not going to hold on to the U.S. dollar if the one thing that makes it so solid, the Fed, is under attack. It really comes down to that.\u201d<\/p>\n
PAUL NOLTE, SENIOR WEALTH ADVISOR & MARKET STRATEGIST, MURPHY & SYLVEST, ELMHURST, ILLINOIS:<\/p>\n
\u201c(Trump\u2019s) going to have to go through litigation in order to do it. He\u2019s just not going to be able to pink slip it like he did with different departments, the Department of Education or USAID or anything like that. So there is a process and to my knowledge, it has never happened before. So I\u2019m not sure that it\u2019s going to be effective, other than to roil the market.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMy understanding of the Federal Reserve and what can and can\u2019t be done \u2013 and this has been reviewed by others \u2013 is that this is not something he\u2019s going to be able to pull off and I\u2019m not sure the Supreme Court is going to go along with it.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019re now throwing up a lot of unknowns. Who\u2019s going to come in? What are they going to do? Will interest rates go down? Is that going to further inflation?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cPowell has been steady. He\u2019s been consistent. Has he made mistakes? Yep. Everybody that\u2019s been in that position has. So I\u2019m not sure that putting somebody new in there is going to fix all of those issues, but it does add an element of very much uncertainty to monetary policy.\u201d<\/p>\n
STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, CONNECTICUT:<\/p>\n
\u201cMarkets should be concerned about potential interference in the Fed\u2019s independence.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cDollar plunging is what you\u2019d expect. Short term rates getting hit going much lower is what you\u2019d expect because whoever (Trump) put in would presumably be much more willing to cut rates.<\/p>\n
\u201cStocks\u2019 reaction is a little muted because firstly traders remain loath to sell, they\u2019re just so programmed to try to buy dips that they\u2019re not eager to sell.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cSecondly because perhaps there are some traders who like the idea of lower rates more than more than the loss of independence.\u201d<\/p>\n
RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, A FAMILY INVESTMENT OFFICE, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY:<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would be a big mistake on (Trump\u2019s) part if he is concerned about the markets and the dollar. An independent Fed gives balance between monetary and fiscal policy. I don\u2019t think that lowering rates here any small amount will really impact much about the economy. It might impact the debt interest payments but that\u2019s about it.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOne problem with this administration is they try and do an awful lot at the same time. And I don\u2019t know whether that\u2019s to try and get more things through rather than have a battle with Democrats over any one thing.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cBut investors like orderly, carefully planned moves and this smacks of something that\u2019s just creating disorder and ramifications that I don\u2019t think the administration has completely thought out.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a very unpredictable administration and that Trump in particular seems to take umbrage at the idea that he doesn\u2019t follow through on some of these things. So it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if they did (fire Powell). It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if they didn\u2019t. That\u2019s one of the problems in assessing investments under this administration is that there often is no clear path as to what\u2019s going to happen. And there\u2019s an awful lot of rhetoric that doesn\u2019t necessarily result in any specific action. So those are recipes for volatility but are not particularly good in terms of planning, either for corporate planning or for investment planning.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s very similar to the tariff situation. There\u2019s a lot of news that could be very meaningful, but no clear indication of whether it\u2019s going to come to fruition or not. So it just leaves a lot of investors confused, and many of them sitting on the sidelines trying to get a sense of where we\u2019re headed as a country financially.\u201d<\/p>\n
MARCO VAILATI, HEAD OF RESEARCH AND INVESTMENTS, CASSA LOMBARDA, MILAN:<\/p>\n
\u201cIt remains to be seen whether Trump will follow through on this threat. Such a move would almost certainly alarm the market, as it would call into question the Fed\u2019s independence from political authority. A less independent Fed, more beholden to this political leadership, would raise concerns \u2014 not so much about solvency, but about the very reliability of the U.S. dollar as the world\u2019s reserve currency.\u201d<\/p>\n
LEE HARDMAN, SENIOR CURRENCY ANALYST, MUFG, LONDON:<\/p>\n
\u201cIf that does happen (Trump fires Powell), it would be very damaging for investor confidence in the dollar, that\u2019s why we\u2019re starting to see the heavy selling, and it could extend further if he were to do so.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not clear-cut whether Trump has the power to fire Powell, so we would expect to see a legal challenge very quickly, but even if it were overruled, the hit to confidence would be long lasting, and it reinforces our bearish outlook on the dollar.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The dollar briefly tumbled on Wednesday and Treasury bond yields popped higher on reports citing an unidentified White…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":634,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,100,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-markets","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}