He pointed to the Bank\u2019s forecast that oil prices would gradually fall toward US$75 per barrel by mid\u20112027, lifting near\u2011term inflation.\u00a0Even so, the broader growth profile would remain \u201clittle changed\u201d from January, with the output gap still putting downward pressure on inflation well into 2028.<\/p>\n
While headline inflation has\u00a0been pushed higher by the latest oil shock, the Bank see\u00a0\u201clittle evidence\u201d so far of a spillover into core measures and stressed it \u201cwill not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Shenfeld noted that the Governing Council highlighted both the level and persistence of oil prices, as well as whether they spread into other prices, as key to any future move.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada may be entering an extended pause as global risks cloud the outlook. Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets indicated rates could remain unchanged for a prolonged period, with inflation and geopolitical uncertainty shaping future decisions.https:\/\/t.co\/j3Mw3xsCMf<\/a><\/p>\n
For David\u2011Alexandre Brassard, chief economist at CPA Canada, that caution is appropriate. \u201cOil prices are significantly higher than before the conflict, but there\u2019s still considerable uncertainty around how long this will last,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cWith no clear resolution around key supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, a wait\u2011and\u2011see approach is warranted.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\u2014 Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) April 29, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n