{"id":638694,"date":"2026-04-30T14:11:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T14:11:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/638694\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T14:11:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T14:11:19","slug":"bad-big-money-teams-abs-lessons-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/638694\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad big-money teams, ABS lessons, more"},"content":{"rendered":"

The first month of the 2026 Major League Baseball season was a funhouse mirror. Blue bloods faltered. Every team in the National League Central is above .500. Starting pitchers, as a whole, have a better ERA than relievers. Shohei Ohtani<\/a> is pitching better than he\u2019s hitting.<\/p>\n

As much as April can be a mirage, there can be signal amid a one-month sample inherently filled with noise. Of the dozen playoff teams last year, nine ended April in position for a postseason berth. Seven of the top 12 players in FanGraphs wins above replacement remained in that elite grouping through the end of the season.<\/p>\n

So as much as the general rule of taking the season\u2019s first month with a mine of salt is reasonable, elite in April often means elite for the remainder of the season. For every collapse, there are multiple successes. And every failure threatens to torpedo a season, either individually or as a team.<\/p>\n

And as much as anything, April 2026 can be defined by its failures and the recourse they wrought.<\/p>\n

Some expensive teams stink<\/p>\n

Here are the top dozen competitive balance tax payrolls, according to Baseball Prospectus, and the teams\u2019 records entering Thursday:<\/p>\n

1. Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a>, $416.8 million (20-11)<\/p>\n

2. New York Mets<\/a>, $379.3 million (10-20)<\/p>\n

3. New York Yankees<\/a>, $338.7 million (20-11)<\/p>\n

4. Toronto Blue Jays<\/a>, $322.3 million (14-16)<\/p>\n

5. Philadelphia Phillies<\/a>, $315.1 million (10-19)<\/p>\n

6. Boston Red Sox<\/a>, $268 million (12-19)<\/p>\n

7. San Diego Padres<\/a>, $258.6 million (19-11)<\/p>\n

8. Atlanta Braves<\/a>, $252.6 million (22-9)<\/p>\n

9. Chicago Cubs<\/a>, $249.9 million (19-12)<\/p>\n

10. Detroit Tigers<\/a>, $243.9 million (15-16)<\/p>\n

11. Houston Astros<\/a>, $238.4 million (11-19)<\/p>\n

12. San Francisco Giants<\/a>, $230.8 million (13-16)<\/p>\n

The three worst teams in baseball carry top 12 payrolls — with two of them in the top five. In aggregate, the record of the top 12 is 185-179, which means the average of the dozen biggest payrolls in baseball is … an 82-win team.<\/p>\n

As far as labor talking points for the MLB Players Association go, there are far worse than: If money spent matters enough that the league is intent on pursuing a salary cap, why are so many of the most expensive teams so bad?<\/p>\n

The most extreme struggles have already led to managerial changes in Boston and Philadelphia. The Carlos Mendoza employment watch in New York is a daily event. Joe Espada is in trouble in Houston. John Schneider is plenty safe in Toronto, but the Blue Jays\u2019 injury-battered start is nevertheless disappointing.<\/p>\n

The collapses of the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies and Astros are causing sky-is-falling levels of consternation among fan bases with extraordinary expectations. That\u2019s fair. April for all four was a fast-moving mess. Each entered 2026 with World Series aspirations, and now they\u2019re going to have to spend the next five months clawing their ways out of a self-dug hole.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the sort of thing, in fact, that causes lookaheads — to the trade deadline and winter, when the managerial carousel could once again be whirling in full force. Where does Alex Cora, fired by the Red Sox, land? If Torey Lovullo leaves the Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> after his contract expires at the end of the season, could he be a fit in Philadelphia, where he knows president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, or Boston, where he served as bench coach for John Farrell?<\/p>\n

Not all of the highest payroll teams are in peril, mind you. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, and with Blake Snell<\/a> working his way through a rehabilitation assignment, they\u2019re going to get better. Gerrit Cole<\/a> and Carlos Rod\u00f3n are on their way back to a Yankees team that is clearly the class of the AL. And the Braves, missing their shortstop, closer, former All-Star catcher and three rotation players, will soon return starter Spencer Strider<\/a>, with others soon to follow. The best are going to get better. And the stragglers can only hope that change does them good.<\/p>\n

ABS is a hit<\/p>\n

From the moment the automated ball-strike challenge system debuted in MLB, it was almost universally celebrated. That\u2019s one hell of a trick for the league to pull: not only having faith in the system to work but showing it on a daily basis in the form of a graphic output on every stadium jumbotron to adjudicate ball-strike calls and, in the process, actively engage fans to pay attention.<\/p>\n

The challenge is more or less a coin flip at this point, with 53.5% of the 1,882 successful. Catchers are the best at it, with overturns 60.7% of the time. Hitters are next at 45.9%. And pitcher-initiated challenges — of which there have been just 40 — remain the most challenging, with a success rate of 42.5%.<\/p>\n

The granular numbers on ABS are perhaps the noisiest of the bunch, seeing as there is no previous MLB data against which they can be compared. Why, for example, have the Red Sox challenged just 36 times while the Twins are at 88? And is the Brewers carrying the best challenge win probability added thus far a matter of small sample or another sign that Milwaukee does the little things better than anyone?<\/p>\n

The impact of ABS goes beyond the challenges themselves. The strike zone is demonstrably different, with a couple of inches shaved off the top gravitating to the bottom of the zone. Just how impactful ABS has been on the leaguewide walk-rate spike from 8.4% last year to 9.6% this year is unclear, but it\u2019s especially benefiting right-handed hitters, who are walking at a 15.5% higher clip.<\/p>\n

Yordan Alvarez is the best hitter in baseball<\/p>\n

\u00c1lvarez is putting up the sort of numbers last seen two decades ago when Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds were terrorizing pitchers. As prolific as Aaron Judge<\/a> has been, as brilliant as Ohtani is, as otherworldly as Mike Trout<\/a> can be, the list of players who have finished April with at least 10 home runs and a strikeout rate below 10% runs nine deep: Bonds twice, Pujols, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko, Jeff Bagwell, Nolan Arenado<\/a> and \u00c1lvarez.<\/p>\n

Of that extremely elite group, \u00c1lvarez\u2019s batting average (.355) ranks second, his on-base percentage (.463) third and his OPS (1.199) third. For a player of \u00c1lvarez\u2019s size (6-foot-4, 233 pounds) to strike out as infrequently as he does — 11 in 134 plate appearances, an 8.2% rate, the fifth lowest in all of MLB — is damn near impossible.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s what makes him the king of 2026 so far. \u00c1lvarez isn\u2019t a slugger. He\u2019s a hitter who happens to have massive raw power. In a universe where the leaguewide strikeout rate is at 22.2%, putting up the production he does by not sacrificing contact or patience is a testament to his well-rounded excellence.<\/p>\n

Judge might be the king of modern hitters, but \u00c1lvarez is coming for the crown.<\/p>\n

Mike Trout is back<\/p>\n

And hallelujah for that. It\u2019s easy to forget that between 2012 and 2019, Trout was not just the best player in baseball. He was the best by an almost inconceivable amount. Consider the top five position players in WAR during that stretch:<\/p>\n

Player WAR<\/p>\n

Mike Trout<\/a>: 70.3<\/p>\n

Buster Posey: 47.1<\/p>\n

Josh Donaldson: 40.8<\/p>\n

Jose Altuve<\/a>: 37.7<\/p>\n

Paul Goldschmidt<\/a>: 37.6<\/p>\n

Take away Trout\u2019s two best seasons in that stretch altogether and he would still be just a fraction behind Donaldson. Regardless of what Trout does now, he is a first-ballot, no-doubt, slam-dunk Hall of Famer.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s he doing now, though? Just slashing .248\/.431\/.569 with 10 home runs, 21 RBIs and 29 runs, plus cutting his strikeout rate from 32% last year to 20.8% this season. As always, health is paramount, but a return to center field as a 34-year-old hasn\u2019t done anything to slow down Trout. He\u2019s simply offering a reminder of who he is and always has been.<\/p>\n

The extension boys<\/p>\n

Six players signed long-term contract extensions this spring — four of them with less than a month of major league service time and two who remain in the minor leagues. This is how they\u2019re faring.<\/p>\n

Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers<\/a>: He is already one of the best hitters in the major leagues, and that is not an exaggeration. The 21-year-old has the seventh-best weighted on-base average in baseball, and his .333\/.420\/.518 line is in line with his minor league production. The most impressive part of McGonigle\u2019s game? He\u2019s got nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (17). He\u2019s worth every dollar of the eight-year, $150 million extension.<\/p>\n

Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a>: Griffin, who recently turned 20, is looking more comfortable by the day, illustrated by both of his home runs going to the opposite field. Once Griffin starts pulling the ball a little more, his .230\/.292\/.345 line will balloon and all the hype around the 6-foot-3, 222-pound phenom — and his nine-year, $140 million contract — will make more sense.<\/p>\n

Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/a>, CF, Chicago Cubs<\/a>: Despite a poor start at the plate, Crow-Armstrong has put up nearly one win above replacement because his defense and speed give him among the highest floors in the big leagues. It was baked into his six-year, $115 million extension, which the Cubs gave hoping he would get off to a better start than the .241\/.307\/.362 line with three home runs — including two in the last two days.<\/p>\n

Shane Baz<\/a>, SP, Baltimore Orioles<\/a>: Starting pitchers almost never get paid before they hit free agency, so the Orioles giving Baz $68 million over five years was a bet on his future. The early returns look a lot like the guy he was in Tampa Bay before an offseason trade to Baltimore, but Baz is doing it a little differently with the Orioles, leaning into the cutter he developed last year to great effect. An increase in usage from around 20% is in the cards — he threw 29% cutters in his Tuesday start — and could facilitate the leap Baltimore sought.<\/p>\n

Colt Emerson, SS, Seattle Mariners<\/a>: Still just 20, Emerson isn\u2019t exactly languishing at Triple-A. His strikeout rate has jumped nearly 10 percentage points since last year, and a wrist injury has slowed him — and perhaps prevented his ascent to the big leagues after signing an eight-year, $95 million extension.<\/p>\n

Cooper Pratt, SS, Milwaukee Brewers<\/a>: The 21-year-old never has hit much in the minor leagues, but his frame (6-4, 210 pounds) and elite glove gave Milwaukee enough confidence to lavish Pratt with an eight-year, $50.75 million contract. He is hitting .205\/.326\/.282 at Triple-A and Sunday hit his first home runs of the season. There\u2019s a real scenario in which Pratt spends the first year of his deal in the minor leagues.<\/p>\n

Five breakout hitters<\/p>\n

Ben Rice<\/a>, 1B, New York Yankees<\/a>: Rice\u2019s Baseball Savant page is lobster red, and his left-handed swing has provided Judge with the complement the Yankees have missed since Juan Soto<\/a> absconded to Queens. What\u2019s most exciting is Rice\u2019s emergence against left-handed pitching. Though his eye-popping walk numbers lag against lefties, he\u2019s slugging at an even higher clip against them than right-handers. This is how a star is born.<\/p>\n

Munetaka Murakami, 1B, Chicago White Sox<\/a>: Speaking of stars, Murakami was an unquestionable one in Japan, where he holds the single-season home run record for a Japan-born player. MLB teams worried about his propensity to swing and miss, and his free agent market over the winter cratered. The two-year, $36 million deal from Chicago was a stroke of brilliance, as Murakami\u2019s 12 home runs lead MLB and at some point in the next 15 months he could be the most valuable position-player trade chip in years.<\/p>\n

Sal Stewart<\/a>, 1B, Cincinnati Reds<\/a>: Stewart was an obvious breakout candidate based simply on the fact that he has hit at every level of his career — and that tends to be a strong predictor. To think he would be one of the 10 best hitters in the league, however, was a touch far-fetched for the 22-year-old. And yet here he is, the perfect running mate to Elly De La Cruz<\/a>\u2019s similar breakout, ready to help Cincinnati challenge for NL Central supremacy.<\/p>\n

Drake Baldwin<\/a>, C, Atlanta Braves<\/a>: The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has leveled up and isn\u2019t just in line to be the best-hitting catcher in the league. He\u2019s looking like the best in baseball, period. Sean Murphy<\/a>\u2019s impending return gives the Braves the ability to give Baldwin more DH days, helping him traverse a 162-game season and be his best self come playoff time, which is looking increasingly likely for Atlanta this October.<\/p>\n

James Wood<\/a>, OF, Washington Nationals<\/a>: Wood did something like this last April, too, but what\u2019s truly exciting is not his otherworldly power or sneaky speed. Wood\u2019s 19.9% walk rate leads the NL, and while some of it is a function of a Nationals lineup that\u2019s not nearly as good as its second-in-MLB runs-scored total, it\u2019s mostly this: Wood has an elite eye. His strikeouts might be alarmingly high, but for everything else Wood does, they\u2019re a plenty worthwhile tradeoff.<\/p>\n

Five breakout pitchers<\/p>\n

Cam Schlittler<\/a>, SP, New York Yankees<\/a>: Schlittler has been the best pitcher so far this season. His 1.57 FIP — a predictive metric — is the best in the big leagues. So is his .442 OPS against. He is everything he showed in his 12-strikeout, no-walk gem against Boston during the postseason last year, and with four above-average pitches and excellent command of each, he is another ace in a Yankees rotation filled with them.<\/p>\n

Jose Soriano<\/a>, SP, Los Angeles Angels<\/a>: There were signs. Sinkers that dive-bomb in at 97 mph don\u2019t grow on trees. But until this season, Soriano\u2019s production had never matched his stuff. He has cut down his walks, ramped up the punchouts and ridden an elite groundball rate to one of the finest starts in years. Soriano is far from the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, but the mere fact that he\u2019s mentioned among the candidates says plenty.<\/p>\n

Chase Dollander<\/a>, SP, Colorado Rockies<\/a>: The ninth pick in the 2023 draft, Dollander was the best Rockies pitching prospect since Jon Gray<\/a> more than a decade ago. And with a fastball that sits at 99 mph, he could offer the antidote to Coors Field: throw extremely hard. The best season ever for a Rockies pitcher, remember, came when Ubaldo Jim\u00e9nez was feathering 100 mph sinkers on the corners, and while Dollander lacks that sort of movement, his five-pitch mix — highlighted by the heater and slider — give him upside that might even exceed Jim\u00e9nez\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Landen Roupp<\/a>, SP, San Francisco Giants<\/a>: The 27-year-old Roupp, never a top prospect after joining the Giants in the 12th round of the 2021 draft, has the best curveball in the NL this side of Nolan McLean<\/a> and Paul Skenes<\/a>. He gets beaucoup ground balls and, with the aid of Oracle Park\u2019s dimensions, keeps the ball in the park. In a rotation with Logan Webb<\/a> and Robbie Ray<\/a>, he has been the best of the bunch and should be a mid-rotation staple for years to come.<\/p>\n

Parker Messick<\/a>, SP, Cleveland Guardians<\/a>: The stuff isn\u2019t overwhelming. The mix is. And it has made the 25-year-old left-hander the latest in a long line of Guardians pitching development success stories. Messick\u2019s six-pitch arsenal is consistently difficult to square up, and even if his home run rate is unsustainable — just one in 36\u2153 innings — he\u2019s proof that pitchers whose fastballs sit in the low 90s still can triumph in a league increasingly defined by velocity.<\/p>\n

Five guys to be concerned about<\/p>\n

Rafael Devers<\/a>, 1B, San Francisco Giants<\/a>: Devers sports the lowest in-zone contact rate in MLB at 68.7%. And while hitters can find success with so much swing-and-miss on strikes — Devers often finds himself near the top of the leaderboard in this category — he is punching out more than ever, walking less than ever and in desperate need of a hot streak to quell the concerns over a contract that runs through 2033.<\/p>\n

Andrew Abbott<\/a>, SP, Cincinnati Reds<\/a>: As bad as it is that Abbott\u2019s walks exceed four per nine innings, his paltry strikeout rate (5.97 per nine innings) is arguably worse. In a home stadium such as Great American Ball Park, that combination is a recipe for disaster. Abbott always has outpitched his peripherals. Regression to the mean is an ugly sight to behold.<\/p>\n

Bryan Abreu<\/a>, RP, Houston Astros<\/a>: Abreu\u2019s fastball is down more than 2 mph, he\u2019s got the worst walk rate in baseball (28.3%), and his ERA (12.96) is the highest in MLB. With Josh Hader<\/a> out for the whole month, Abreu had ample opportunity to seize the closer job. He fumbled it spectacularly.<\/p>\n

Brayan Bello<\/a>, SP, Boston Red Sox<\/a>: Over the last two years, Bello\u2019s fastball velocity has dipped from 95.7 mph to 93.6 to 91.7. In today\u2019s game, a 92-mph fastball will be obliterated, and Bello learned that the hard way, with the Yankees tagging him for five home runs among 13 hits he allowed two starts ago. The scariest part: Bello is owed $44.5 million for the 2027-29 seasons.<\/p>\n

Colton Cowser<\/a>, OF, Baltimore Orioles<\/a>: The AL Rookie of the Year runner-up two years ago, Cowser has been so bad he is ceding outfield reps to Leody Taveras<\/a> and Blaze Alexander<\/a>. Injuries to Jordan Westburg<\/a> and Jackson Holliday<\/a> already diminished Baltimore\u2019s offense. Cowser\u2019s big league-worst 18.9% weak-contact percentage has not helped matters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The first month of the 2026 Major League Baseball season was a funhouse mirror. Blue bloods faltered. Every…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":638695,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":["post-638694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=638694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638694\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/638695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=638694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=638694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=638694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}