{"id":641001,"date":"2026-05-01T15:07:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:07:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/641001\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T15:07:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:07:15","slug":"mls-best-bets-of-week-11-may-2-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/641001\/","title":{"rendered":"MLS Best Bets of Week 11- May 2, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on Spotify with video, below. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Match- Toronto FC host San Jose Earthquakes<\/p>\n

Pick- San Jose Team Total U1.5 -108<\/p>\n

The San Jose Earthquakes have been clicking on all cylinders on offense, and yet I like them to score less than 2 goals this week against Toronto FC.\u00a0 While this seems unlikely, consider the absence of Timo Werner for a minute.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Timo has 4 goals and 5 assists this season.\u00a0 That means in only 457 minutes of SJ\u2019s 10 matches, he\u2019s responsible for (directly or indirectly) 9 of their 25 goals.\u00a0 By the numbers, that brings the Quakes, in Werner\u2019s absence,\u00a0 down about 36% on offensive production.\u00a0 That brings them closer to RBNY or the LA Galaxy in terms of offensive production.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Let me be clear, TFC is a mess.\u00a0 However, these high odds for any away team\u2019s team total unders don\u2019t always make sense.\u00a0 This is a math play, not a confidence play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Match- Sporting KC host Seattle Sounders<\/p>\n

Pick- BTTS No +128<\/p>\n

This week, two teams with the lowest goals scored face off.\u00a0 Combined, Sporting KC and Seattle Sounders scored 19 goals in 17 matches.\u00a0 While Sporting KC has seen a whopping 25 goals against, Seattle has only conceded 4 times.\u00a0 That is a league low.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

I went back to look at historical data, and saw SKC actually scored 2 goals in each of their last two matches against the Sounders.\u00a0 However, that included two penalties and an own goal.\u00a0 Mason Toye, who now plays in the third division in Germany, scored the fourth.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I want to make it clear that this is an anti-SKC play, but it is also a reflection of Seattle\u2019s 5 shutouts this season, and overall low risk in betting. Even without Yeimar playing the last 5 matches, they conceded only 2 goals during that span.\u00a0 Against a weaker opponent, I think they have a better than the 44% chance the implied probability on a +128 bet would hold.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While I don\u2019t think Seattle is getting shut out here, we also need to consider that possibility is non-zero with a BTTS-No bet.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Match- Atlanta United hosts CF Montreal<\/p>\n

Pick- CF Montreal DNB +174<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a game that will have many eyes, but I do think Atlanta United against CF Montreal has some good odds this week.\u00a0 Montreal is off of two straight home wins, including a 4-1 beatdown of RBNY and 1-0 win over NYCFC.\u00a0 This week, I think they can beat a non-NY team.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

CF Montreal have been up and down this season, and as bad as they have been, I don\u2019t think they are completely hopeless.\u00a0 They are certainly not unable to compete this week in Atlanta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

My first look at the odds saw Atlanta at -110 and Montreal at +250, with little movement since then.\u00a0 I just don\u2019t think the sportsbook is very interested in this match, and +250 against Atlanta is a value.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Match- Philadelphia Union host Nashville SC<\/p>\n

Pick- Under 2.5 -118<\/p>\n

Nashville SC has had an electric start to 2026, but I think that is about to reach slump territory.\u00a0 Sam Surridge is week to week with a back injury, while Edvard Tagseth was forced off midweek against Tigres.\u00a0 They are facing those midweek CCC matches, and think they might be forced to rotate this week.\u00a0 Nashville, all that being said, still only conceded 6 goals this season, and if they aren\u2019t the ones scoring, I think they can keep the game close by keeping the total low.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Philadelphia Union have seen higher total matches, but overall they\u2019ve seen a mixed bag of results.\u00a0 They have played to totals under 2.5 goals in half of their home matches.\u00a0 In their last 5 games, they\u2019ve had only one home game, a 0-0 draw against DC United.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

At -118, my model shows a 2.45% advantage on the sportsbook\u2019s implied probability of 54.13%.\u00a0 This seems like a pretty fair play, and I like the chances of Nashville running out the B-Squad, anyway.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Match- New England Revolution host Charlotte FC<\/p>\n

Pick- BTTS & Over 2.5 -106<\/p>\n

When the Revs host Charlotte FC this weekend, I like the Revolution and I like goals.\u00a0 In fact, the Revs have the second highest advantage on the sportsbook\u2019s implied probability, with a 5.49% advantage. However, my lingering New England skepticism and favoritism towards Charlotte push me to another play. I like both teams to score and the over on 2.5 goals, combined at -106 odds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Revolution are a perfect 4-0 at home, and 1-1-3 on the road.\u00a0 They have had an awesome home advantage thus far, although their opponents (Columbus, DC, Montreal, and Cincy) leave the strength of the advantage to be tested. However, they saw a total of 14 goals in those 4 home matches, and saw both teams score twice.\u00a0 Charlotte is the best offense they\u2019ve faced, so I think they definitely concede this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Charlotte has a similar home\/away split as the Revolution, yet opponents have only shut Charlotte out once on the road.\u00a0 They see BTTS in 4 of 5 matches on the road and each of their last three.\u00a0 Their last away match they failed to score in was March 1st. They have played to a total of 19 total goals in those 5 matches.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This one points the way of goals, and with both teams playing midweek, we could see a shootout.\u00a0 Odds are -106 for a low-risk play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Match- San Diego FC host Los Angeles FC<\/p>\n

Pick- David Martinez Goal or Assist -110<\/p>\n

This week LAFC played Toluca and then will travel to San Diego, all before playing in Toluca next week.\u00a0 Their coach, Marc dos Santos, was already complaining about the schedule congestion in interviews this week.\u00a0 I think he\u2019s going to rotate a bunch of players, which could push 20 year old winger David Martinez to an influential role.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Martinez already has 4 goals this season, including the only goal in Minnesota, where the squad also rotated heavily.\u00a0 With San Diego FC missing Luca Bombino, the leftback role was filled by Ian Pilcher, who has pretty much been a non-factor this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

LAFC can exploit SDFC this week without holding possession or starting a full contingency of stars.\u00a0 They can sit back, counter, and attack the wings and still get a good result.\u00a0 If that is the play, young Martinez is your guy.\u00a0 I will also dabble on his scoring at +200.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Did you know the Designated Pundits break down their MLS card each Thursday at 8:00 PM, LIVE on YouTube?<\/p>\n

Subscribe here-\u00a0youtube.com\/@thedesignatedpundits<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":641002,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[440],"tags":[16528,49,48,16535,16539,14705,16538,20748,16533,14704,16524,112525,561,16522,82,16526],"class_list":["post-641001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-soccer","tag-atlanta-united","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-cf-montreal","tag-charlotte-fc","tag-los-angeles-fc","tag-nashville-sc","tag-new-england-revolution","tag-philadelphia-union","tag-san-diego-fc","tag-san-jose-earthquakes","tag-seattle-sounders","tag-soccer","tag-sporting-kansas-city","tag-sports","tag-toronto-fc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=641001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/641002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=641001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=641001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=641001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}