Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
Scotia Capital analyst Mike Rizvanovic \u201cstrongly\u201d believes large Canadian banks have \u201can opportunity to meaningfully improve their expense ratios over time through branch reductions in Canada.\u201d <\/p>\n
The total number of branch locations in Canada for the Big Six banks peaked at slightly below 6,000 mid-F2015 and has been subsequently reduced by 12 per cent to 5,285 as of the latest quarter,” he said in a client report released Monday. \u201cNA has been the most aggressive over that period, cutting 17 per cent of its branches, even with the CWB acquisition, while RY has seen the smallest decline at 9 per cent (partly related to the HSBC Canada purchase). While management teams have consistently noted the importance of the Canadian branch network, we believe that the increasing digitization of financial services allows for a more rapid pace of branch consolidation in the years ahead.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a roadmap on branch moderation:\u00a0Large banks with dominant positions in other markets globally have been able to reduce their branch network materially over many years. Most notably, the 4 large banks in Sweden reduced total branches by more than 60 per cent over a 20-year period ending F2024, while the large banks in Australia have also reported a material 40-per-cent reduction over that period. While the large banks may not ultimately cut branches to that extent in Canada, we do believe that there is a clear pathway to moderation with the Canadian Bankers Association noting in a 2024 report that digital banking is the primary channel for more than three-quarters of Canadians.<\/p>\n
Mr. Rizvanovic says his proprietary analysis on branch proximity shows Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T<\/a>) possesses the \u201cmost branch count moderation potential among the peer group, providing the most EPS upside.\u201d<\/p>\n Given that view, he upgraded TD to a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating from \u201csector perform\u201d previously after putting \u201cincreasing weight on the cost side of the P&L in light of potential revenue headwinds that could materialize for the group over the medium-term, particularly related to NII given higher rates and elevated leverage in the Canadian market.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Rizvanovic\u2019s target for TD shares rose to $150 from $142. The average target on the Street is $142.70, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n His other target changes are:<\/p>\n Bank of Montreal (BMO-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $209 from $208. Average: $208.67.Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $159 from $153. Average: $144.77.National Bank of Canada (NA-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $214 from $202. Average: $190.09.Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $252 from $247. Average: $253.<\/p>\n “For the large banks we are increasing our price targets modestly (up 3 per cent average) across-the-board to reflect our higher confidence in the quarter ahead following our discussions with management, which were generally constructive in terms of the near-term outlook, and in our view sets up for another potential EPS beat for the group. For EQB our PT is unchanged given the stock\u2019s recent run-up, and what we expect will be another somewhat challenging quarter from both a credit perspective, including within the bank\u2019s higher-risk uninsured Alt-A mortgage portfolio, and some potential expense headwinds related to seasonality and continued investments into strategic initiatives,” he explained.<\/p>\n TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil thinks TC Energy Corp.\u2019s (TRP-T<\/a>) quarterly earnings report<\/a> reinforced its \u201cU.S.-centric growth opportunity, with Appalachia establishing a scalable platform with clear multiple compression over time, while oversubscribed Crossroads\/Columbus open seasons and growing backlog point to accelerating, capital-efficient growth through 2030.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAppalachia sets the stage for future growth: Management expects 4.0 Bcf\/d of growth in the region by 2035, with future expansions to Appalachia requiring minimal capital for compression and minor facility modifications,\u201d he said in a client note. \u201cBeyond 2.0 Bcf\/d, further pipe would be required.<\/p>\n \u201cOpportunities will drive capex, not the other way around: Given the generational opportunity for growth, management noted that a self-imposed $6.0-billion\/year CapEx limit will be less relevant in the latter part of the decade. Currently, projected spend including pending FID spend has capital increasing beyond $6.0-billion in 2030. Management noted that in-service sequencing for incremental projects would be in the 2029-2031 timeframe. Notably, management has $15-billion of projects in origination, beyond sanctioned projects and projects pending FID.\u201d<\/p>\n On Friday, the Calgary-based company reported revenue of $3.861-billion, down 7 per cent from the third quarter and 8 per cent under Mr. MacNeil\u2019s $4.203-billion estimate. However, EBITDA grew 4 per cent sequentially to $3.088-billion, exceeding his projection by 2 per cent of $3.039-billion, driven by the performance of its U.S. natural gas business. <\/p>\n \u201cWe have actualized for Q1\/26 results and have not made any material changes to our 2026-2030 EBITDA estimates,\u201d he said. \u201cNote that our 2026 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 billion is toward the mid-upper end of management\u2019s $11.6-billion to $11.8-billion guidance range. Similarly in 2028, our EBITDA of $12.8-billion also sits around the midpoint of the guide ($12.6-billion to $13.1-billion). Our capital spending forecasts remain unchanged.\u201d<\/p>\n Maintaining his \u201chold\u201d rating for TC Energy shares, Mr. MacNeill raised his target to $90 from $88. The average is $93.93.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fundamental drivers supporting TC\u2019s business remain incredibly positive following its Q1\/26 results, with management continuing to put forward a compelling long-term business outlook featuring low execution risk, high return organic growth. In this context, we highlight that investors have rewarded TC with a premium valuation. Specifically, TC is currently trading at a 2026E EV\/EBITDA of 14.3 times, above its historical 10-year mean of 12.1 times and at a premium to its Canadian peers (average: 12.6 times). To reflect continued de-risking of its growth outlook with a meaningful project announcement as well as continued multiple expansion, our price target increases to $90\/share and we are maintaining our HOLD rating,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include: <\/p>\n * RBC\u2019s Maurice Choy to $95 from $92 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cAmid the in line Q1\/26 results and reaffirmation of near-term guidance ranges reinforcing TC Energy\u2019s operational momentum, the core of the company\u2019s growth stock investment thesis remains solidly intact. Specifically, the Appalachia Supply Project sanctioning and the open season oversubscriptions at Crossroads and Columbus underscore TC Energy\u2019s opportunity (and ability) to capture power and data center-related demand in high-growth corridors, while regulatory settlements on the Canadian Mainline, ANR, and Great Lakes reinforce earnings stability. Backed by a balance sheet that is tracking toward the 4.75 times debt\/ EBITDA target, we believe TC Energy\u2019s capital-efficient growth model is working as designed,\u201d said Mr. Choy.<\/p>\n * ATB Cormark\u2019s Nate Heywood to $87 from $82 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cTRP shares traded off 0.5 per cent during Friday\u2019s session following the pre-market release and conference call. While the Q1\/26 EBITDA print was fairly in line (up 1 per cent to consensus) and 2026 guidance was reiterated, the update was complemented with a US$1.5-billion project announcement and improved clarity on the depth of the current hopper ($23-billion secured and $21-billion backlog),\u201d said Mr. Heywood.<\/p>\n * National Bank\u2019s Patrick Kenny to $92 from $86 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating<\/p>\n RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel says recent channel checks, peer performance, management commentary around holiday performance suggest Aritzia Inc.\u2019s (ATZ-T<\/a>) strong performance in its current fiscal year continued through its fourth quarter.<\/p>\n Ahead of its quarterly release on May 7, she\u2019s forecasting fourth-quarter results \u201cat or above\u201d the Vancouver-based retailer\u2019s guidance and predicts investor focus will \u201clikely to be on F27 outlook and underlying assumptions.\u201d <\/p>\n In a client note released before the bell, Ms. Nattel made a series of forecasts adjustments to \u201creflect growing confidence in growth algo and brand heat, rising penetration\/long growth runway in the U.S., and enhanced digital options with re-launch of international shopping site in August and new mobile app late October.\u201d<\/p>\n She\u2019s projecting earnings per share of $1.06, up from 83 cents during the same quarter a year ago and 4 cents above the consensus. She expects revenue to grow 27.6 per cent year-over-year to $1.142-billion, topping the Street\u2019s projection of $1.137-billion.<\/p>\n \u201cF27 guidance anticipated in conjunction with Q4 results,\u201d said Ms. Nattel. \u201cRevenue already one year ahead of plan formulated late 2022, EBITDA \u2018high teens\u201d broadly consistent with 19 per cent initial target. In our view, with tariff headwinds abating and with stronger than expected top line growth and related scaling, F27E EBITDA margin should trend higher.\u201d<\/p>\n Keeping her \u201coutperform\u201d rating for Aritzia shares, she hiked her target to a high on the Street of $175, up from $150. The average is $150.66.<\/p>\n \u201cWith current momentum and planned boutique openings, ATZ should deliver sector leading top- and bottom-line growth, with EBITDA\/EPS growth forecaster 20 plus per cent\/30 plus per cent,\u201d she said. \u201cGrowth driven by: i) strong SSS [same-store sales] performance, ii) step-up in unit growth; iii) highly effective expansions\/relocations; and iv) rising e-commerce sales and penetration. <\/p>\n \u201cEntry into new markets, strong merchandising strategy and scalable eCommerce model should drive sustained profitable market share growth. ATZ\u2019s merchandising strategy provides a high level of flexibility to adapt the offering to shifting consumer demand, critical as consumer spending ebbs and flows with broader macro backdrop. Despite pressure on household wallets across most income cohorts, ATZ everyday luxury positioning and strong pricing strategy underpinning rising consumer loyalty, and boutique openings in new markets extending TAM across channels. True omnichannel, margin-agnostic model should enable the Company toprofitably grow revenues in both bricks-and-mortar and online as ATZ extends its footprint into new markets in the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n In a client note titled Growth Wins the Race, Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien upgraded his rating for Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cmarket perform\u201d following better-than-anticipated first-quarter results.<\/p>\n \u201cWe were right to go neutral on Badger Infrastructure on Oct-21-25, as the common shares have since retreated 7 per cent, versus a gain of 14 per cent for the TSX Composite,\u201d he said. \u201cThat said, with new truck builds stretching higher on accelerating demand and growth investments weighing less on profitability than expected, we see BDGI digging out from under the skepticism that followed its 4Q25 print.\u201d<\/p>\n After the bell on Thursday, the Calgary-based company reported adjusted EBITDA of $38-million for the quarter, topping both Mr. Bastien\u2019s $34-million estimate and the consensus forecast of $37-million. He attributed the beat to top-line growth that more than doubled his 9-per-cent growth target, as well as margins compressing less than expected. That resulted in earnings per share of 22 cents, topping the 19-cent projection of both the analyst and the Street.<\/p>\n \u201cBadger ended the period with 1,758 trucks, 20 units ahead of our estimate and a 117 unit improvement versus last year,\u201d he added. \u201dAn accelerating pipeline of opportunities across power generation, AI infrastructure, and municipal utilities has led BDGI to raise its new-build forecast\u00a0to the top of its 270-310 range. With retirements held steady, this moves the 2026 net-new truck midpoint up by 20 to 170.<\/p>\n \u201cForecast, target, and rating move higher.\u00a01Q26 outperformance, a higher new-build forecast, and stronger-than-expected operating leverage despite ongoing investments all point to a more robust 2026 than we initially expected.\u00a0Accordingly, we now project 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth of 15 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, up from prior estimates of 11 per cent and 14 per cent. With confidence restored that BDGI\u2019s advancing top-line can help offset near-term margin pressure, we expect share price momentum to return. We upgrade the stock back to Outperform, leaving the burrow as Badger\u2019s improving trajectory comes into view.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Bastien raised his target for Badger shares to $77 from $73. The average is $77.03.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Yuri Lynk upgraded Badger to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201chold\u201d with a $90 target, jumping from $70.<\/p>\n \u201cNear-term margin headwinds flagged in our January 30 downgrade to hold appear better reflected in the stock, which has underperformed year-to-date, with consensus 2026 EBITDA having moved somewhat lower following an 8-per-cent Q4\/2025 EBITDA miss on March 5. At the same time, end-market strength has intensified, with Q1\/2026 revenue coming in well ahead of our estimate and consensus. North American non-residential construction activity is as strong as we have seen it, and at least partially boosted by data center construction starts that increased from $1.4-billion to $36-billion year-to-date through February. As a result, there is less construction equipment, including hydrovacs, available for rent or sale, benefiting Badger\u2019s fully integrated model. With management pointing to the high-end of 2026 build rate guidance and average monthly revenue per truck (RPT) trends well ahead of our expectations, we are taking our 2026 and 2027 top and bottom line estimates higher,\u201d said Mr. Lynk. <\/p>\n Elsewhere, other target changes include: <\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Tim James to $92 from $79 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe view Badger as undervalued given multiyear backdrop for hydrovac services, forecast growth and comp valuation expansion. Growth investments that are impacting margins should moderate as year progresses leading to several years of margin expansion. This should lead to Badger\u2019s valuation more closely replicating comp group strength,\u201d said Mr. James. <\/p>\n * Stifel\u2019s Ian Gillies to $94 from $82 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you build it, they will come. In this instance, we are talking about Badger building hydrovac trucks and its customers coming to rent them at an expedited pace as evidenced by its 2025-2027E EPS CAGR of 19 per cent that is wholly driven by organic growth. Our thesis that the stock is a beneficiary of large construction capex in the U.S. is unchanged with strong demand across data centres, energy and infrastructure. In our view, the underlying fundamentals of the business support a P\/E in the range of 22-23 times. Meanwhile, construction peers in Canada and the U.S. have seen valuations gap up into the range of 25-30 times 2027E P\/E. BDGI should also participate in this trend given it has very similar exposure,\u201d said Mr. Gillies.<\/p>\n Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman lowered his forecast for TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T<\/a>) after the results from Wabash National Corp. (WNC-N<\/a>) \u201cshowed the trailer market, while stabilizing, was slightly lower quarter-over-quarter\u201d and likely to weigh on the contributions from 2025 acquisition EnTrans International.<\/p>\n \u201cAdmittedly, this revision may be: (1) conservative as Entrans is a less commoditized version of Wabash whose trailers have definite useful life; and (2) backward-looking as key freight indicators are showing signs of improvement, namely U.S. contract rates renewing at high-single-digits to low-double-digits with spot rates rising even faster; and ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index improving for the third consecutive month in March,\u201d he said. \u201cWabash noted increasing visibility into a recovery underscored by backlog build up 19 per cent quarter-over-quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n In a client note released before the bell titled The Weight, Mr. Goldman said his adjustments also account for \u201cpotential lags on pass-through of higher steel costs from S232 in TerraVest\u2019s residential HVAC business.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cWe think there is high probability that TVK can generate more than $400 million of EBITDA next year,\u201d he added. \u201cUsing 1QF26 run-rate as a starting point ($270-million annualized) and layering on: (1) the U.S. Army contract ($30-million); (2) a recovery in EnTrans ($40 million); and (3) Highland Tank data center backlog conversion. At 10.5 times EV\/EBITDA, in-line with freight peer TFII-CA and other compounders, despite having superior EBITDA\/share growth, that implies a share price of $154\/share. That excludes additional upside from M&A. We forecast net debt to EBITDA excluding leases of 2.8x exiting F2026 and 1.8 times exiting F2027. We believe management has a comfort range of less than 2.5 times, but will go to 3.5 times for a larger deal.\u201d<\/p>\n Keeping his \u201csector outperform\u201d rating for the Toronto-based company, he reduced his target to $178 from $187. The average is $184.<\/p>\n \u201cOur model does not include any upside from data center backlog delivery in F2026. TVK shares are down 18 per cent year-to-date and are trading below levels prior to the announcement of the transformative\u00a0acquisition of Entrans,\u201d he said. \u201cShares are trading at 10.2 times EV\/EBITDA on our 2027E, which does not include any unannounced M&A. TVK shares are typically volatile around quarters with the average up\/down move more than 10 per cent. We would be buyers post-results either way as we gain more visibility into Entrans rate of change and as\u00a0freight is nearing an inflection point.\u201d<\/p>\n National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T<\/a>) cementing \u201ca strategy of making bold, counter-cyclical investments towards establishing disciplined returns & durable free cash flow through long\u2011life, low\u2011decline assets.”<\/p>\n He emphasizes the importance of the B.C.-based company having established itself as a multi\u2011jurisdictional operator with a geographically diversified asset base stretching to Canada, Malaysia and France.<\/p>\n \u201cThe significance of its consolidated asset base, and the associated sustainable earnings profile, has positioned the company for one of its most important organic inflections; the sanctioning of the Blackrod thermal oil project, and the execution of which should prove transformational for the company & its returns,\u201d said Mr. Payne. \u201cThe project, previously embedded within BlackPearl\u2019s portfolio, was formally sanctioned in February 2023, and through Phase 1 should establish a multi-decade 30 mbbl\/d thermal oil project and associated durability of free cash generation. With first steam having been achieved in December 2025 (ahead of schedule), visibility to first production sits for mid-year 2026 (a meaningful catalyst to come), while plateau thereafter (offering a sustainable FCF profile of ~$200 mln per annum) is expected in late-2027.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst emphasized the International Petroleum\u2019s \u201casset orientation and corporate strategy should expose a meaningful value opportunity as it continues to harvest large OOIP assets towards FCF generation, which is significantly suggested through embedded thematics, which distill an unrisked value proposition of up to $70-100 per share over the long-term (re-rate to a 7-8-per-cent peer average aggregate FCF yield; supported by catalysts, execution, scarcity and near-term complements to come).\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWith that, IPC stands very well positioned to capitalize on a forthcoming value inflection through ramping FCF in association with Blackrod, in support of a resonant strategy to continue compounding value and establishing outsized returns through its bold approach for reinvestment in high-impact, long-duration assets,\u201d he added \u201cUltimately, the company\u2019s asset exposures being harvested by this management team, are ideally positioned to translate massive FCF from an enormous OOIP opportunity in support of outsized value creation.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Payne initiated coverage of International Petroleum with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $45 target, pointing to an estimated total return of 17.2 per cent. The average on the Street is $39.80.<\/p>\n \u201cOur Sector Perform rating exists as we await formal achievement of its \u2018first oil\u2019 milestone at Blackrod, and continued validation of technical parameters, which will ultimately serve as the foundation for the ultimate economic outcome of the project and its impact on corporate value,\u201d he said. \u201cAs these milestones are met and validation is achieved, we expect our valuation paradigm will accommodate a more optimistic rating (noting that critical mass of the project will not be fully evident to financials until 2028). <\/p>\n \u201cAs evidence of the ultimate value proposition with validation of its execution; IPCO is poised for a 60-per-cent total return (vs. peers 27 per cent) on leverage of negative 0.2 times D\/CF (vs. peers negative 0.1 times), while trades at 5.9 times 2027 estimated EV\/DACF (vs. peers 5.4 times).\u201d<\/p>\n As CAE Inc.\u2019s (CAE-T<\/a>) first-quarter earnings release approaches, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks its shares have been \u201chit by a perfect trifecta: network restructuring uncertainty, fuel-led airline sell-off and blue-wave defence fears.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cCAE\u2019s shares are down 15 per cent year-to-date, underperforming the S&P\/TSX, which is up 7 per cent, and are now effectively near where they were when Browning West disclosed its 4-per-cent stake at the end of 2024,\u201d he said. \u201cIn other words, the stock has given back all gains from the post-Matt Bromberg hire\/Canada defence budget rally, despite nothing structurally changing in the story. Instead, the pullback appears largely driven by external and geopolitical factors that have added uncertainty. <\/p>\n \u201cFirst, following CAE\u2019s 3Q results, we proactively adjusted our model for network restructuring and asset divestitures, and came out with the lowest FY27 transition-year numbers on the Street. Since then, several other analysts have lowered estimates (with FY27 numbers now all over the map), creating uncertainty around the size of the air pocket and the pace of recovery. Ultimately, we believe this overhang could ease once CAE provides FY27 and longer\u2011term targets with 4Q results at the end of May, allowing the Street to look past the noise and price the stock on cleaner numbers. Adding to this uncertainty was the Iran war and coincident spike in oil prices, which pressured airline stocks (the global airlines ETF JETS is down 8 per cent ytd) and created further selling pressure in CAE shares. This was followed by the recent sell-off in defence names, despite rising geopolitical tensions and higher defence budgets globally, driven by increased \u2018blue wave\u2019 risk tied to President Trump\u2019s low approval ratings (ie the possibility of significant Democratic gains in the upcoming midterms that could influence the size of the defence budget). Overall, as noted above, we view these as temporary short-term phenomena, while the medium- to long-term backdrop for both commercial aviation and defence spending remains directionally up and to the right. Furthermore, as we have published on several occasions, CAE is the largest and one of the few defence contractors in Canada, and we expect it to benefit meaningfully from the increased Canadian defence budget over the coming years (well above the 4\u20135-per-cent industry growth range quoted by CEO Matt Bromberg last month). Key upcoming opportunities include the Future Fighter Lead-in Training (FFLIT) program, training\/simulation for Canada\u2019s next-generation submarine fleet, and training\/simulation for the SAAB-BBD GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, which recently won the NATO mandate (see our note) and remains the leading candidate for the Canadian Air Force contract.”<\/p>\n In a note released before the bell titled The best is yet to come, Mr. Poirier \u201cmodestly\u201d lowered his estimates for the Montreal-based company to reflect higher fuel prices, however he emphasized he remains \u201cencouraged by the strength of the bizjet and defence markets, as well as CAE\u2019s upcoming transformation plan.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the transformation journey to take 3\u20134 years,” he said \u201cAs CAE continues to reap the benefits from key actions undertaken and benefit from a strong market environment for civil and defence, we expect utilization and margins to increase further. Assuming slightly lower valuation multiples as earnings become more normalized, we foresee a value of $57\/share based on FY29E and $65\/share based on FY30E.\u201d<\/p>\n Maintaining his \u201cbuy\u201d rating for CAE shares, he cut his target to $50 from $52. The average is $48.16.<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * Seeing a \u201cfocus on growth catalysts materializing in 2026,\u201d National Bank\u2019s Shane Nagle bumped his target for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T<\/a>) to $350 from $345 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating. The average is $370.53.<\/p>\n \u201cWe continue to model production growth to 4.3 million ounces by 2034 to be confirmed by technical reports for Hope Bay (H1\/26) and San Nicolas, overview of Canadian Malartic expansion opportunities in Q3\/26 and approval of Detour Lake U\/G & Upper Beaver in 2027,\u201d Mr. Nagle said. \u201cOur growth estimates are set to improve with the inclusion of recent acquisitions in Finland creating a pathway to become a 500 koz production hub within the next decade.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAgnico Eagle finished Q1 with\u00a0US$2.91-billion in net cash and the company plans to target an expanded\u00a0US$2.0-billion NCIB. With the balance sheet in a strong net cash position, AEM will continue to focus on returning cash to shareholders while accelerating the development of its organic growth portfolio providing incremental catalysts throughout the year.\u201d <\/p>\n * Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Mark Neville cut his Air Canada (AC-T<\/a>) target to $20 from $21 with a \u201chold\u201d rating. The average is $22.78.<\/p>\n \u201cPost-Q1 results, we have lowered our 2026E adjusted EBITDA by 4.5 per cent,\u201d he said. \u201cThe back of the envelope math: (1) we estimate the incremental fuel cost headwind (vs. prior guidance) to be $2.25 billion, using (roughly) spot jet fuel costs, and (2) we assume the company can recover 55 per cent of the incremental cost in Q2 (consistent with guidance) and 70 per cent in 2H. To do this, demand must remain resilient, despite significantly higher ticket prices (up mid-teens %)\u2014by management\u2019s account, this is currently the case. Taken together, by our estimation, this equates to an $800-million unrecovered fuel cost impact vs. prior guidance, meaning annual adjusted EBITDA in the range of $2,755 million.<\/p>\n \u201cDepending on how you want to look at it, this could either be good (i.e., demand is strong, and fuel costs are likely to come down at some point) or bad (i.e., fuel costs are unlikely to come down significantly and\/or could rise further + demand, at some point, will likely be impacted by higher fuel prices). Given the high degree of uncertainly, we prefer to sit on the sidelines.\u201d<\/p>\n * In response to the release of a preliminary economic assessment for its Kay Mine Project in Yavapai County, Arizona, Stifel\u2019s Cole McGill downgraded Arizona Metals Corp. (AMC-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d with a 35-cent target, down from $1.50 and below the 37-cent average.<\/p>\n \u201cThe predominant reason is based on marginal PEA economics, which detailed suboptimal NPV5% [US$(6)MM at $3,100\/oz Au & $$4.70\/lb Cu] and profitability ratio at spot (0.73 times). Cognizant PEA studies represent a snapshot in time – and that nearly all VMS mines in production today have witnessed double-digit tonnage accretion post initial resource, we remain constructive on the ultimate exploration upside of the project (+10km of fertile structure). However, with the EXPO permit the gating item, and exploration upside firmly in the \u2018show me\u2019 camp, we think this is a longer dated story (noting the deposit needs to see growth for viable economic return), to revisit towards the latter half of 2026. AMC trades at 0.30 times our updated P\/NAV,\u201d said Mr. McGill.<\/p>\n * Ahead of the release of its first-quarter results on May 13, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Gary Ho lowered his target for shares of Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T<\/a>) to $260 from $270 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $255.32.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we have trimmed our estimates to reflect temporary lower traffic in 1Q, we believe the fundamental backdrop is improving, supported by normalization of repairable claims reported by several industry peers. We remain constructive on the story, with improving SSSG, JHCC synergies, a robust pipeline for both start-ups and acquisitions, and margin expansion driven by Project 360 cost-saving and optimization initiatives,\u201d said Mr. Ho.<\/p>\n * In a report titled Twin Engines Firing; Organic Development and Capital Recycling Power the Road Ahead, National Bank\u2019s Baltej Sidhu raised his target for Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP-N<\/a>, BEP.UN-T<\/a>) to US$36 from US$34, keeping a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating, following a first-quarter beat, while TD Cowen\u2019s Sean Steuart moved his target to US$39 from US$38 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is US$36.47.<\/p>\n \u201cBEP retains strong financial flexibility, with $4.7-billion of liquidity and a scalable asset recycling program,\u201d said Mr. Sidhu. \u201cThe company has generated $2.8-billion of proceeds year-to-date ($800-million net), with \u201926 shaping up to be a robust recycling year amid strong buyer demand. This recycling activity supports funding for organic growth and new investments and is expected to contribute roughly one-third of the $9\u201310-billion five-year equity deployment target. Separately, management is evaluating a potential transition to a single, combined corporate structure, which could enhance trading liquidity and support broader index inclusion.\u201c<\/p>\n * In a note titled Mr. Market was not fair or friendly, RBC\u2019s Bart Dziarski raised his Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T<\/a>) target to US$2,277 from US$2,261 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating following \u201cneutral\u201d quarterly results, while Raymond James\u2019 Stephen Boland increased his target to $3,050 (Canadian) from $3,000 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $2,724.27 (Canadian).<\/p>\n \u201cFFH stock\u2019s 8-per-cent decline following Q1\/26 results, which we viewed as in- line, was the single-biggest one-day decline since Liberation Day in April 2025 and the February 2024 short report on the name,\u201d said Mr. Dziarski. \u201cBoth turned out to be great buying opportunities and we view this time as no different. Balance sheet remains strong with $2.5-billion of cash and a 27-per-cent leverage ratio. We continue to believe FFH stock is overly discounted, trading at 1.1 times forward P\/B. We reiterate FFH as our top value pick and derive our $2,277 target (was $2,261) by applying a 1.5 times P\/B on Q2\/27E BVPS.\u201d<\/p>\n * Scotia\u2019s John Zamparo trimmed his Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N<\/a>, GIL-T<\/a>) target to US$72 from US$74 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating. The average is US$79.86.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we lack conviction on a return to traditional levels of sales growth in the near-term, there\u2019s several reasons to remain constructive on the stock. We have confidence in the margin expansion trajectory given cost visibility (especially on energy and cotton) and planned synergy capture; valuation remains undemanding at 13.1 times NTM [next 12-month] EPS; and the prospect of a relatively near-term catalyst exists in the form of the sale of HAA, which can lead to a return of the buyback by H1\/27. We also have confidence in 2027 EPS of at least $5.15 (up 22 per cent year-over-year), because if core earnings are reduced from the macro picture, we believe additional synergies upside exists as an offset,\u201d said Mr. Zamparo.<\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Brian Morrison raised his Magna International Inc. (MGA-N<\/a>, MG-T<\/a>) target to US$76 from US$75 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is US$62.17.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re unclear as to the negative reaction to Magna\u2019s Q1\/26 print [Friday] morning, as excluding the positive P&L impact from a timing shift of commercial recoveries, Adj. EBITDA\/EPS still handily exceeded consensus. Magna maintained 2026 guidance, had strong FCF, and plans to complete its NCIB (17 million shares). We view as a positive start to 2026, positioning Magna toachieve mid-to-high end of guidance,\u201d said Mr. Morrison.<\/p>\n * RBC\u2019s Pammi Bir moved his Morguard REIT (MRT.UN-T<\/a>) target to $6.50 from $6, which is the average, with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. <\/p>\n \u201cWe curbed our earnings outlook on the back of a slower than anticipated Q1, particularly in NOI. While pressures in the office portfolio will likely persist, we expect the retail assets to continue delivering moderate organic growth. As well, the HBC and broader mall repositioning exercises should ultimately drive incremental value in the years ahead. That said, with MRT\u2019s leverage and payout ratios at elevated levels, we see more limited upside in valuation,\u201d said Mr. Bir.<\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Derek Lessard, currently the lone analyst covering Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp. (PZA-T<\/a>), reduced his target to $14 from $16 with a \u201chold\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the shares to react negatively [Monday] given the deteriorating same-store sales growth trend and the low (and declining) working capital reserve. While we continue to view PZA as a solid operator with numerous internal initiatives, low consumer confidence and intense competition under a soft macro backdrop are not constructive for any meaningful SSSG improvements in the near term.\u201d <\/p>\n * With momentum building for its U.S. title segment, National Bank\u2019s Richard Tse raised his Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T<\/a>) target to $7.50 from $7 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating, while Raymond James\u2019 Steven Li reduced his target to $8.25 from $9 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $8.<\/p>\n \u201cAll in, we think the FQ2 results were solid and reflect the Company\u2019s execution to scale its U.S. Title business while increasing market share (across Appraisal and Title) and surfacing operating leverage. That said, the uncertain rate environment continues to lend to a balanced risk-to-reward profile,\u201d said Mr. Tse.<\/p>\n