{"id":650059,"date":"2026-05-05T20:38:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T20:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/650059\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T20:38:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T20:38:11","slug":"will-the-vancouver-canucks-pick-first-overall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/650059\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Vancouver Canucks pick first overall?"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, focus will turn for a short while on Tuesday evening to the non-playoff teams as the Draft Lottery goes down at the NHL Network studio in Secaucus, N.J.<\/p>\n

The future of these less fortunate franchises will begin to be charted. Will the last-place Vancouver Canucks get the payoff they hope for after such a turbulent season and end up with the top pick in the draft? Or will another team get lucky and supplant them in that position?<\/p>\n

Last year, the New York Islanders finished with 82 points and missed the playoffs by nine points \u2014 not exactly a bottom-feeder. But they got lucky at the lottery, moved up to first overall, and took Matthew Schaefer, who stormed on to the scene this season and is the favourite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year.<\/p>\n

Ah, but the lottery isn\u2019t just about the first-overall pick. The second-overall selection is in play as well.<\/p>\n

To help clear up any lingering questions about how this process will work, read along in our primer that will explain the two draws.<\/p>\n

And be sure to watch the lottery on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+ at 7 p.m. ET \/ 4 p.m. PT where you can see each ball drawn live.<\/p>\n

How does it work?<\/p>\n

Fourteen numbered ping-pong balls are placed into the lottery machine and each of the teams are assigned their share of four-number combinations, weighted by their season finish. So, for example, the last-place Canucks have 185 of a possible 1,000 winning combinations, while the Washington Capitals \u2014 who have the longest odds -\u2014 have just five combinations.<\/p>\n

There will be two, four-ball draws: the first is for the first-overall pick, and the second draw for the second-overall pick. However, it\u2019s important to remember that teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, so only the bottom 11 teams can win the first-overall pick. For example, if the Capitals were to win the first draw they\u2019d move from the 16th-overall pick up to the sixth-overall pick. Everyone inside the top five would stay in the same order in that scenario.<\/p>\n

Follow this link<\/a>\u00a0to view every one of the 1,001 possible combinations, and which team is assigned to them.<\/p>\n

Just like last year, this draw will be done live on television, so you\u2019ll be able to see how the odds change for each team after every ball is pulled. Some may be eliminated after the very first ball is drawn. After three balls are pulled, we\u2019ll know precisely who still has a chance to win heading to the last ball, and which final number they\u2019d need drawn to do it.<\/p>\n

Last year, the Islanders had just a 3.5-per-cent chance to win the lottery, but one of their combinations was drawn first and they shot up from 10th overall to first and took Schaefer.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a video showing how the 2025 lottery played out. The same process will occur in 2026.<\/p>\n

What are the odds?<\/p>\n

The following table shows the percentage chance each team has of winning the first lottery draw. These numbers will change dynamically as each of the four balls is pulled for the first draw. After the first draw is complete, every remaining team\u2019s odds will be elevated for the second draw, based on which team wins the first draw and is no longer included in the second.<\/p>\n

The teams are placed in reverse order of standings finish, so the last-place Canucks have the best chance of winning either draw.<\/p>\n

EAMODDSVancouver Canucks18.5 per centChicago Blackhawks13.5 per centNew York Rangers11.5 per centCalgary Flames9.5 per centToronto Maple Leafs*8.5 per centSeattle Kraken7.5 per centWinnipeg Jets6.5 per centFlorida Panthers6.0 per centSan Jose Sharks5.0 per centNashville Predators3.5 per centSt. Louis Blues3.0 per centNew Jersey Devils2.5 per centNew York Islanders2.0 per centColumbus Blue Jackets1.5 per centSt. Louis Blues*0.5 per centWashington Capitals0.5 per cent<\/p>\n

Keep in mind, the lottery only sets the order of the first 16 picks of the first round. Picks 17-31 will be determined by playoff finish, with the Stanley Cup winner picking 31st overall. The Ottawa Senators are already locked in with the 32nd-overall pick \u2014 one they cannot trade \u2014 after\u00a0getting their selection back from a previous league penalty<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The pick order in Rounds 2-7 is only determined by regular-season finish, so we know the Canucks\u2019 draft pick will be the first one in every other round of the draft.<\/p>\n

What to watch for<\/p>\n

As shown above, the Canucks have the best odds to win the lottery at 18.5 per cent, but since teams 12-16 can\u2019t get the No. 1 pick, Vancouver actually has a 25.5 per cent chance to pick first overall. Vancouver has never picked first overall and might be the unluckiest draft lottery team, moving down after the 2016 (third to fifth), 2017 (second to fifth), 2018 (sixth to seventh) and 2019 (ninth to 10th) lotteries. It\u2019s actually most likely (55.7 per cent) they\u2019ll end up with the third-overall pick.<\/p>\n

Entering the lottery with the fifth pick, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be on edge to see if they exit the draws with a first-round pick at all. The 2025 trade with Boston for Brandon Carlo included a top-five protected 2026 first-round pick going the Bruins\u2019 way. If any team below Toronto, with the exception of Washington, wins either draw and moves up, it will knock the Leafs out of the top five and force them to transfer this year\u2019s first-rounder to Boston. If a team ahead of the Leafs wins, Toronto will stay put, and if the Capitals win a draw they can only move up to the sixth overall pick and keep Toronto in place as well.<\/p>\n

The St. Louis Blues appear here twice. The pick with the asterisk next to it (15th overall) was traded from Detroit to St. Louis at this year\u2019s deadline for Justin Faulk as the Red Wings made a playoff push that failed. Detroit has had some recent bad luck at the lottery, too, dropping three spots in 2020 when the Red Wings finished last overall. More bad Red Wings luck here would lead to the Blues winning a draw with Detroit\u2019s pick, but the highest it can climb is to fifth overall.<\/p>\n

In 2022 a new rule was introduced that restricted any team from winning the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. The four lottery winners in the past four years have been, in order: Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and the Islanders. The Blackhawks, Sharks and Islanders are all present in this year\u2019s lottery again and if any were to win this year\u2019s lottery, they would be ineligible to do so again until the five-year clock expires.<\/p>\n

Check out this table from\u00a0Tankathon.com<\/a>, which shows the percentage chance that a team will end up with any given pick after the lottery (different than percentage chance of winning a draw). Keep in mind, these odds will change after the first draw is concluded:<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Why do several teams have less than a one-per-cent chance of ending up with the third-overall pick? This all hinges on the Devils. If New Jersey were to win the first draw, they would only be able to move up 10 spots into the second-overall pick. And, since the second draw is\u00a0for the second-overall pick, if any team from 4-11 won that second draw, they would wind up with the third-overall pick, since the second one had already been won by New Jersey in the first draw.<\/p>\n

Got it?<\/p>\n

With 14 balls in the lottery, there are 1,001 possible four-ball combinations that could be drawn, but 1,000 winning combinations. That\u2019s because there is one sequence of four balls that would trigger a redraw: 11-12-13-14.<\/p>\n

Who could go first overall?<\/p>\n

The favourite at the beginning of the season was Gavin McKenna, and he\u2019s still very much in the mix,\u00a0ranked No. 1 by Sportsnet\u2019s Sam Cosentino<\/a>\u00a0in April. McKenna scored 15 goals, 36 assists and 51 points in 35 games with Penn State in the NCAA this season after making the jump over from the CHL\u2019s Medicine Hat Tigers. A left-shot winger, McKenna\u2019s offensive game is not in doubt. What brought in other challengers for No. 1 overall was McKenna\u2019s unpolished defensive game. However, according to our scout Jason Bukala writing in his March rankings McKenna \u201chas addressed most of the concerns I\u2019ve had about his overall game.\u201d<\/p>\n

The main challenger for the No. 1 spot against McKenna is Sweden\u2019s Ivar Stenberg, another left-shot winger, but one who brings a more polished all-around game. Though Stenberg\u2019s offence isn\u2019t as standout as McKenna\u2019s, the Swede was still taking a run at Daniel Sedin\u2019s record for most SHL points in a draft eligible season early on, but wound up well short of Daniel\u2019s 42 points with 33 of his own. Still, those 33 points were just one shy of Henrik Sedin\u2019s draft-year total, and more than either Leo Carlsson or William Eklund put up in their more recent draft seasons. Stenberg was also Sweden\u2019s top scorer at the world junior championship with 10 points in seven games.<\/p>\n

Those are the two most likely No. 1-overall picks, but the positions these players play makes the whole top five intriguing. Because, following these two left-shot wingers, are players who play more premium positions.<\/p>\n

Chase Reid and Keaton Verhoeff, a couple of right-shot defencemen who will be coveted, were both ranked in the top five by Cosentino and Bukala. Verhoeff started the season as a potential challenger for the No. 1 spot, while Reid has been on a rocket up the rankings all season. Reid scored 48 points in 45 games with Sault Ste. Marie in the OHL, while Verhoeff scored 20 points in 36 games with North Dakota playing against older competition in the NCAA.<\/p>\n

And, finally, Caleb Malhotra is the top-ranked centre, with Cosentino placing him No. 3 and Bukala writing that he could finish \u201cup as high as No. 2 on my board by the end of the year.\u201d In the OHL playoffs with Brantford, Malhotra had 26 points in 15 games, but his season ended with a loss on Monday. He also comes with NHL pedigree as his dad, Manny, played 991 NHL games and is currently the head coach of Vancouver\u2019s AHL affiliate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, focus will turn for a short while on Tuesday evening to the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":650060,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[194298],"tags":[49,48,55],"class_list":["post-650059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-vancouver","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-vancouver"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/650059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=650059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/650059\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/650060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=650059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=650059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=650059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}