{"id":657993,"date":"2026-05-09T10:48:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T10:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/657993\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T10:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T10:48:18","slug":"nascar-cup-series-at-watkins-glen-odds-picks-who-can-beat-shane-van-gisbergen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/657993\/","title":{"rendered":"NASCAR Cup Series at Watkins Glen odds, picks: Who can beat Shane van Gisbergen?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NASCAR Cup Series is in Watkins Glen, N.Y.<\/a>, this weekend for the next road course on the schedule. Road course king Shane van Gisbergen is the favorite, but our experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi say there are other drivers who could challenge.<\/p>\n

As always, they\u2019re here to answer our questions about the upcoming race and make picks and predictions for the upcoming race.<\/p>\n

Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen International is on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 and HBO Max.<\/p>\n

Race winner odds for the Go Bowling at The Glen<\/p>\n

Well, I HAVE to start with the Met Gala king himself, Carson Hocevar! How many NASCAR drivers have attended before? What does it say about Hocevar and about where NASCAR is or is trying to go? Was it at all controversial?<\/p>\n

Jeff: As far as I know, Jeff Gordon is the only other NASCAR driver to attend the Met Gala. Formula 1 drivers have been there in recent years, of course \u2014 Lewis Hamilton was co-chair of the event last year \u2014 and Supercross rider Jett Lawrence also showed up in 2025. But NASCAR and the fashion world don\u2019t often mix, so this was a great opportunity for NASCAR to get one of its drivers in a high-profile, unconventional setting. Some fans seemingly rolled their eyes and scoffed on social media, but others instantly understood the bigger picture: This is the sort of thing NASCAR has been missing. We talk about star power all the time and how back in the day, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was on \u201cMTV Cribs\u201d and Jeff Gordon hosted \u201cSaturday Night Live.\u201d NASCAR needs to get its drivers more relevant and mainstream, and having a young star appear at an event like this (and give a charming interview) is a big win for a sport whose athletes lack proper recognition.<\/p>\n

This is so good and so needed for NASCAR to have drivers in settings like these. Huge. https:\/\/t.co\/hjQgN7CbKV<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) May 4, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Jordan:\u00a0Hovecar did a fantastic job introducing himself to an audience that, in all likelihood, was probably quite unfamiliar with him. During one television interview, he charmed viewers by sharing that his dad had lent him a special watch to wear that night and how his mom was more elated that he had been invited to the Met Gala than she had been over him winning at Talladega. It\u2019s these types of moments that go a long way to turning a driver into a household name, and while Hocevar is not there yet, he\u2019s certainly on the path to one day reaching that level if he can continue to produce on the track as he has.<\/p>\n

OK, back to racing. There\u2019s some Shane van Gisbergen-focused chatter online that some of the safety measures NASCAR is implementing might be bad for the race. Can you explain that? Is there a real concern here, or is that mostly just people talking? Are drivers concerned about any changes to the track this year?<\/p>\n

Jeff: So the deal here is NASCAR has gotten more comfortable over the last year with placing small packs of tires inside turns to help enforce track limits. Officials don\u2019t want to be making ticky-tack calls, and drivers say they have a hard time with visibility anyway, so these tire packs have seemed to do the job at places like Circuit of the Americas and Mexico City (last June). Except now they\u2019re taking another step: Starting this weekend, NASCAR will try to keep cars on the track in Turn 1 by placing several of these packs to make a semi-wall (except with gaps in it for cars to go through if they get off course). Drivers seem skeptical about whether that will work, and SVG\u2019s concern in particular is another wall of tires that could bounce cars back onto the track further in the course. So we\u2019ll see how it goes, but the bottom line is the recent years of watching drivers run wayyy off course with no penalty seems to be over for now.<\/p>\n

Jordan:\u00a0Officials want to keep drivers on the track and not see them run in what is the NASCAR equivalent of out-of-bounds. Understandable, as other road-course-centric series officiate their races in the same manner, and it keeps NASCAR from having to make a balls-and-strikes call that often leaves room for interpretation. But, as SVG has expressed, there is a concern that this will create a chaotic environment where cars are bouncing off barriers and then back into the racing surface. The potential is there for Sunday to be a slam-bam affair, much like how road courses used to unfold back in the day, though there is just as good a chance that drivers quickly adapt to the more confined circuit and the race isn\u2019t any more chaotic than recent editions.<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s race was one of \u201cclashes and crashes,\u201d<\/a> as your takeaways put it: Do you expect any of that emotion to bubble up again this week and affect strategy or drivers?<\/p>\n

Jeff: Probably not at Watkins Glen. This should be a pretty straightforward race once the field gets spread out. Sure, you could have some action on restarts here and there, but last year\u2019s Glen race was a stinker won by SVG. There\u2019s always the opportunity to spin someone out in a relatively innocent manner, but drivers will likely be on their best behavior after seeing Ryan Preece get penalized 25 points and docked $50,000 for intentionally crashing Ty Gibbs at Texas last week.<\/p>\n

Jordan:\u00a0The Kyle Busch versus John Hunter Nemechek dustup is one to monitor going forward, with Watkins Glen offering Nemechek a chance to extract some form of payback after Busch seemingly (though NASCAR disagreed) deliberately crashed him last week. One lesson learned from Texas: If you\u2019re going to intentionally wreck a competitor, don\u2019t call your shot on the radio. NASCAR is listening, and any comments made will be used against you when officials determine whether to issue any penalties.<\/p>\n

Who is your favorite to win this week? SVG and Connor Zilisch are the obvious favorites. Is that right? Anyone else we should be looking at?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jeff: First, you have to ask yourself if SVG is going to win again or not. The value you get for picking him is obviously minimal, but it\u2019s still plus money (barely), and he\u2019s obviously a heavy favorite for a reason. The race win seemingly goes through SVG, as he\u2019s finished first and second there in his two starts, and everyone knows how good he is. But if you think he\u2019ll stumble because Trackhouse Racing is off, then that means teammate Connor Zilisch won\u2019t be in contention either. So then I\u2019d look at Christopher Bell, who has the best average finish at the Glen (6.8) among active drivers with at least three starts (that was my creative way of saying everyone but SVG). Bell finished second in this race last year and has never finished worse than 14th there, but he\u2019s also never led a lap at the Glen.<\/p>\n

Jordan:\u00a0For obvious reasons, SVG is the pick. But in no way is he the overwhelming favorite, as there are plenty of other drivers more than capable of winning Sunday. As laid out above, there is the possibility that the race is attrition-filled, and even SVG has said that a driver can do everything right and still find themselves ensnared in someone else\u2019s mess. All that said, SVG is NASCAR\u2019s best on road courses, and if he can avoid any issues, he should be celebrating his first victory of the season Sunday.<\/p>\n

Who is a long shot you like this week?<\/p>\n

Jeff: I\u2019d stay away from that at the Glen. Arguably, long shots don\u2019t win at this place; the last one might have been Steve Park in 2000? It\u2019s all been drivers who are great road racers or have shown potential for winning there; it\u2019s unlikely someone will just come out of nowhere to suddenly win at the Glen. AJ Allmendinger at +2500 is about as far down as I\u2019d comfortably go for a race winner, but even he has the 13th-best odds.<\/p>\n

Jordan:\u00a0Daniel Suarez has shown he can win on a road course \u2014 his first career victory came at Sonoma in 2022 \u2014 and his Spire Motorsports team has consistently brought fast cars to the track this season. So when looking for a long shot, you could do a lot worse than tabbing Suarez at +4000.<\/p>\n