![\"Gas](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/gettyimages-2274506889a.JPG\")
<\/p>\n\n The longer the Iran war lasts and the more damaging its economic fallout, the better off the global economy may be in the long run.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s a hard-to-square possibility, especially with the war\u2019s large number of human casualties. War is ugly, cruel and deeply painful, and the economic harms of this one have hurt billions of people around the globe \u2013 many of them in devastating ways.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nevertheless, the world could undergo some fundamental and necessary changes as a result of the war\u2019s destruction. It is almost certain to harden and diversify its energy supply chain as a result, preventing a single 23-mile-wide waterway from becoming a chokepoint for the global economy and allowing Iran to shut off the global oil market. And the harder the economy falls, the greater the incentive to make those necessary changes.\n <\/p>\n
\n OPEC may also be smaller or dismantled, potentially reducing oil and gas prices. The energy supply chain could be heartier, with pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz altogether. And the world could accelerate its shift to renewable energy sources, reducing the world\u2019s reliance on fossil fuels.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s not at all clear what kind of deal \u2013 if any \u2013 can be reached to end the war. Iran may not be weakened as much as the United States or Israel hope. It may continue to fund terrorism and threaten the lives and livelihoods of its enemies.\n <\/p>\n
\n However, economists and military experts agree that some long-term good could come from the deeply unpopular war.\n <\/p>\n
\n The war exposed significant structural flaws in the global energy supply chain \u2013 a complex, interwoven system that balances redundancy and efficiency. The fact that Iran could so easily cut off the world\u2019s access to a fifth of global oil with some mines, makeshift drones and speed boats will require some serious reckoning \u2013 and permanent changes.\n <\/p>\n
\n The likeliest outcome is that the Middle East will build oil and gas pipelines that route through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to bypass the strait altogether.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cCountries aren\u2019t stupid: they\u2019re going to develop pipelines and massively increase capacity,\u201d said Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors. \u201cNo one will bet their whole future again on the Strait of Hormuz. That\u2019s an enormous positive.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n That would mean energy supplies could be more secure \u2013 and cheaper \u2013 in the long run. The world has been paying for high insurance costs built into transit through contentious waters.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThat might not have happened without this war,\u201d said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird. \u201cOftentimes it takes shocks or unexpected exogenous events to reinforce that things need to change.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n We\u2019ve seen these shifts several times this decade alone. After the pandemic, the world\u2019s manufacturing supply chains broke and then were significantly strengthened . Russia\u2019s war with Ukraine changed the way Europe got its natural gas. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs resulted in massive shifts in raw materials sourcing.\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n Resilience in the energy supply chain couldn\u2019t come at a better time: The world\u2019s demand for energy has become insatiable. Tech companies are building power-hungry AI datacenters at breakneck speed.\n <\/p>\n
\n If the world weans itself off Middle Eastern energy, the United States could be well-positioned to help: Natural gas remains the largest power source for electricity production, and America is swimming in it, with increased export capabilities.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThis could very well turn out to be a good thing \u2013 despite the temporary economic dislocation \u2013 if on the other side of this, freedom of navigation is restored, oil, natural gas and distillates are free flowing and the cartel collapse,\u201d said Joe Brusuelas, chief US economist at RSM. \u201cThose are things you tend to only see 10-20 years later; in the fog of war, it tends to get blurred.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n Some economic changes are already solidifying.\n <\/p>\n
\n OPEC \u2013 America\u2019s chief fossil fuels competitor \u2013 has started to fray. The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest oil-producing member of OPEC, said it would leave the cartel, weakening OPEC\u2019s ability to set the production quotas that keep prices high.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cDiversifying production away from OPEC and toward more reliable suppliers \u2014 particularly the United States \u2014 should improve global energy security and help stabilize prices over time,\u201d said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager ant Tortoise Capital.\n <\/p>\n
![\"Vessels](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2026-05-06t095330z-1611700354-rc2k3layaexj-rtrmadp-3-iran-crisis-oman-hormuza.JPG\")
<\/p>\n