{"id":664510,"date":"2026-05-12T13:34:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/664510\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T13:34:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:34:08","slug":"tuesdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/664510\/","title":{"rendered":"Tuesday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">RBC Dominion Securities analyst Nelson Ng says he understands the strategic rationale for Boralex Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BLX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BLX-T\/\">BLX-T<\/a>) to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-brookfield-and-caisse-to-acquire-renewable-power-producer-boralex-for\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-brookfield-and-caisse-to-acquire-renewable-power-producer-boralex-for\/\">be acquired<\/a> by Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BAM-T\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">BAM-T<\/a>) and the Caisse de d\u00e9p\u00f4t et placement du Qu\u00e9bec for $3.8-billion, noting the Montreal-based renewable power producer would \u201ceventually need to raise capital to fund its capital-intensive development pipeline, while Brookfield has access to scale capital and has a proven track record of leveraging its relationships with equipment suppliers, contractors and offtakers to deploy (and recycle) capital at attractive returns.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe also positively view La Caisse\u2019s increased commitment as an existing Quebec-based shareholder that acquired Boralex\u2019s peer (Innergex Renewable) in 2025,\u201d he said in a client note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Ng is now looking for further clarity on both the deal, which was announced in late March, and the approval process when Boralex reports its first-quarter results on May 14 ahead of a special shareholder meeting on June 4.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe acquisition provides Boralex with access to Brookfield\u2019s global renewables platform and capital to accelerate development of its development pipeline across Canada, the U.S., France, and the U.K. that totals over 8 GW,\u201d he added. \u201cBoralex previously planned to divest $900-million of assets and issue $500 million of equity over 2025-30 to partially fund growth. Due to Brookfield\u2019s scale and network, we believe value creation opportunities can be realized through procurement optimization, enhanced energy marketing capabilities, transition to self-perform O&amp;M, and establishing a disciplined asset recycling program. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cStrategic review process started in March 2025. Shortly after Boralex\u2019s close peer, Innergex Renewable, agreed to be acquired by La Caisse in February 2025, Boralex commenced a strategic review process in March 2025 as highlighted in the Management Information Circular. Boralex received nine non-binding proposals in November 2025 and proceeded to second round bids with the four bidders with the highest proposed purchase prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Reaffirming his \u201csector perform\u201d rating for Boralex shares, Mr. Ng raised his target to $37.25 from $33 to reflect the sale price. The average is $37.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Following in-line first-quarter results and \u201ca much improved activity outlook,\u201d ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello raised his adjusted EBITDA estimates for Ensign Energy Services Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ESI-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ESI-T\/\">ESI-T<\/a>) by 14 per cent across his forecast horizon, leading him to upgrade its shares to an \u201coutperform\u201d rating from \u201csector perform\u201d previously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cESI outlined a materially stronger H2\/26 outlook for Canadian and U.S. activity, supported by contracted rig upgrades included in its $242-million capital program ($194-million previously),\u201d he said. \u201cFollowing 2025 market share losses, ESI is refocusing on Canada with five planned rig upgrades. ESI expects to run seven-to-eight more Canadian rigs year-over-year in H2\/26, driving our forecast to 3,819 Q4\/26 operating days (up 20 per cent year-over-year). In the U.S., ESI plans to upgrade five rigs in 2026 amid indications of increasing customer activity from both public and private E&amp;Ps. This view is supported by ESI\u2019s top U.S. customer, Diamondback Energy (FANG-N, not rated), which announced a 4-per-cent 2026 budget increase and plans to add two-to-three rigs in H2\/26. Consequently, we forecast ESI\u2019s U.S. activity to increase roughly 1 per cent year-over-year in H2\/26. ESI is also rolling out 5-10-per-cent pricing increases on new contracts, supporting our estimate of 4-per-cent higher pricing by Q2\/27e. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cGiven this improved outlook, we increase our Canadian and U.S. revenue estimates by 18 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, across our forecast horizon.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In justifying his increasingly bullish view of the Calgary-based company, Mr. Monachello said he\u2019s also forecasting \u201cmaterial\u201d growth internationally through 2028.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile ESI is seeing a more mixed outlook internationally, our analysis suggests that tailwinds in Australia (expecting to add two rigs in 2026), Venezuela (third rig being deployed in Q4\/26), and Oman (added two rigs in 2026) are likely to more than offset headwinds in Kuwait (two rigs coming down) and Bahrain (one rig on standby) over the medium-term,\u201d he said. \u201cWe forecast ESI will generate $312-million revenue from international operations in 2026e (up 8 per cent year-over-year, $321-million previously), $348-million in 2027e (up 12 per cent year-over-year, $341-million previously) based on a full year\u2019s contribution of higher activity in Australia, Venezuela and Oman and modestly lower activity in Kuwait, and $388-million in 2028e (up 11 per cent year-over-year, $363-million previously) assuming ESI is able to reactivate its two rigs in Kuwait (one in H2\/27e and one in H1\/28e). &#8230; We believe upside to our model exists in Venezuela, Australia, and Bahrain where Management is optimistic regarding potential additional rig deployments in late-2026 and\/or 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">With his new forecast, the analyst raised his target for Ensign shares to $5 from $4, which is the current average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Seeing it \u201ctreading through an investment cycle,\u201d TD Cowen analyst Wayne Lam lowered his rating for Artemis Gold (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ARTG-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ARTG-X\/\">ARTG-X<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d previously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe view a more tempered near-term outlook for ARTG ahead as the company moves through an investment cycle with the concurrent Phase 1A and EP2 expansions,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile we remain confident in operational execution given strong performance on the Phase 1 construction and ramp up ahead of schedule, we view near-term growth being relatively priced in. We estimate relatively neutral free cash flow through 2027 driven by (1) capital outlay towards the expansions, (2) continued delivery on outstanding gold hedges through mid-2028, and (3) working capital needs via buildup of ongoing stockpile along with rising cost pressures on fuel\/consumables. Additionally, we model modestly greater capital spend ahead with $200-million in additional growth capital guided this year related to items including water and tailings infrastructure projects to supplement the planned expansions and similar investment continuing through 2027-28 alongside the EP2 build. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs such, we view a more tempered near-term outlook through this investment cycle with longer term fundamentals remaining intact in building towards increased production levels of 500 Koz\/yr over the coming decade.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Lam dropped his target for Artemis shares to $38 from $50. The average is $49.99.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe continue to view the company constructively on a longer term basis given large-scale, low cost output in Canada given scarcity of producing assets in Tier I jurisdiction,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a separate report, Mr. Lam upgraded Pan American Silver Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PAAS-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PAAS-N\/\">PAAS-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PAAS-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PAAS-T\/\">PAAS-T<\/a>) to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201chold\u201d previously, believing \u201crecent updates have bolstered the outlook for the company ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn our view, the updated PEA for the Skarn provides a refreshed look at the asset as a silver focused development project with lower technical risk given switch to longhole open stoping (vs sub-level caving previously) and reduced upfront capital of $1.9-billion (vs $2.8-billion),\u201d he said. \u201cWe view this providing a pathway for PAAS to unlock value with visibility to 20 Moz Ag\/yr from La Colorada. More importantly, the project also helps address prior concerns around shorter life reserve assets particularly around the Silver Segment while supporting the company\u2019s silver revenue exposure. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs such, we view a renewed outlook ahead for the asset portfolio; we model total upfront capex of $2.2-billion through 2032 and first production in early-2033, with the Skarn supplementing current mining of the high grade veins with output growing from 5.9 Moz Ag\/yr from 2026-32 to 17.4 Moz Ag\/yr at mine-site AISC of $17.70\/oz AgEq from 2033-38.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Lam also touted Pan American\u2019s \u201cenhanced\u201d shareholder returns framework, which he sees \u201csupported by strong FCF.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn our view, the recently announced Enhanced Shareholder Returns Framework reflects the robust free cash flow outlook, capable of simultaneously supporting phased growth spend on the Skarn project alongside the reinforced capital returns program,\u201d he said. \u201cBased on targeted returns of 35-40 per cent of annual attributable free cash flow with $101-million via dividend\/buyback to date, we estimate total return of $638-million this year and $692&#8211;million in 2027 at spot prices. We view this as a signal of strength in the underlying business with a strong commitment to return of capital while maintaining the ability to concurrently fund growth initiatives.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">His target increased to US $72, exceeding the US$69.35 average, from US$67.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">While he continues to slash debt, National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood thinks Ovintiv Inc.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\">OVV-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\">OVV-T<\/a>) \u201chi-graded portfolio [is] starting to flex.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">After the bell on Monday, the Denver-based natural gas company, previously known as Encana and based in Canada, reported average production of 679,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 9 per cent quarter-over-quarter and 15 per cent year-over-year and exceeding both Mr. Wood\u2019s 670,000 barrel estimate and the Street\u2019s expectation of 673,000 barrels. Cash flow per share of $4.62 (up 21 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively) was also ahead of projections ($3.93 and $4.24, respectively.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe delta to our estimates was driven by a combination of higher-than-expected volumes and realized prices, partially offset by higher-than-expected operating costs and royalties,\u201d the analyst explained. \u201cTotal cash flow of $1.2-billion in the quarter was used to fund $605 million in capex and $85-million in base dividends, resulting in RFCF of $549 million (implying a payout ratio of 56 per cent). Production for the quarter trended near the high end of guidance across all products (Q1 guidance of 660-680 mboe\/d), with the company providing Q2 guidance of 610-635 mboe\/d (while reiterating its FY guidance of 620-645 mboe\/d).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Wood emphasized Ovintiv\u2019s growing debt reduction initiative alongside its capital return commitment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith its Anadarko asset divested in early April (for proceeds of US$2.85-billion), OVV earmarked a significant portion of the funds towards the redemption of its US$700 million, 5.65-per-cent senior notes due in May 2028 (interest savings of $40-million annually on a go-forwardd basis),\u201d he said. \u201cThe company exited the month of April with net debt of $3.3-billion, and we expect continuous focus on debt reduction moving forward. While we anticipate meaningful proportions of RFCF (incl. base dividend) returned to shareholders (largely via buybacks), the company has flagged that the proportion of shareholder returns likely trends closer to 50 per cent (range of 50-100 per cent) in this higher price environment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cDespite the lower relative proportion, the company continues to make meaningful progress on buybacks, with 1.5 million shares ($84-million) bought back in Q1 and an incremental 1.7 million shares bought back in April ($96-million). Given the macro (and an improving egress picture for Waha over the next 12-24 months), we expect absolute returns will continue to ramp moving forward (April pace is a sign of things to come). On our estimates, we currently peg OVV to generate $1.3 billion of FCF over the balance of the year (likely some upside as it relates to U.S. natural gas realizations due to Waha basis improvements).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">After raising his 2026 and 2027 cash flow forecasts by 6 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, \u201cdriven mainly by revised production mix,\u201d Mr. Wood increased his target for Ovintiv shares to US$82 from US$80, reaffirming an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is currently US$68.52.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, Scotia Capital\u2019s Kevin Fisk raised his target to US$67 from US$65 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOVV continues to be one of our top picks due to its 1) strong operational execution,including the realization of upside locations and capital synergies from recent Montneyacquisitions; 2) potential TSX composite inclusion; 3) a simplified portfolio; and 4)attractive valuation at strip with a 2026 DAFCF [debt-adjusted free cash flow]yield of 15 per cent the highest amongst ourcoverage. We believe OVV is a solid pick for investors looking for Montney exposure following ARX\u2019s acquisition by SHEL. We have increased our target price to $67\/sh toreflect the company\u2019s strong performance,\u201d said Mr. Fisk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">As Rogers Communications Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RCI-B-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RCI-B-T\/\">RCI.B-T<\/a>) prepares to begin the process to buy Kilmer Sports Inc.\u2019s 25-per-cent stake in Maple Leaf Sports &amp; Entertainment, National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine see the potential for \u201cmaterial windfalls\u201d as major North American sports league set the stage for future expansion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cNBA recently voted to examine addition of two teams ahead of 2028-2029 season at a per team expansion fee of US$7-billion-US$10-billion,\u201d he said. \u201cMLB could add two teams at an expansion fee of US$2-billion in 2028, subject to how labour relations evolve in 2027. NHL hasn\u2019t launched a process, but could add two to four teams over next several years at an expansion fee near or above US$2-billion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text mv-16 l-inset text-pb-8\" data-sophi-feature=\"interstitial\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-rogers-communications-buyouts-april-27\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rogers Communications offering buyouts to half its work force<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a report released Tuesday, Mr. Shine examined the \u201ckey next steps\u201d over next 12 months for Rogers\u2019 sports and media assets, including the acquisition from Kilmer. That process involves the appointment of three evaluators and two closest valuations from that group are averaged to determine what Rogers pays. The purchase is expected to close in the fourth quarter following by the combination of MLSE with the Blue Jays and Sportsnet ahead of a planned sale of a minority stake of the recapitalized platform, which is expected in the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cRogers recently said recapitalized S&amp;M could be worth $25-billion-plus &#8230; We use Forbes and Sportico estimates to get a range of value for related sports teams of $17-$18-billion to which we add $0.7-$1-billion for concerts business, $1-$2-billion for Sportsnet, and $1B-$2B for real estate development optionality. That gets us to roughly $20-$23-billion to which we could possibly apply a premium for platform bundling. We prefer this to a mark-up of team values when, for example, we consider San Diego Padres just getting sold for US$3.9-billion (up 26 per cent to last Forbes\/Sportico estimate of US$3.1-billion).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cMadison Square Garden Sports Corp. [MSGS:NYSE, not rated] includes teams but not venues and trades at 40-per-cent discount to NAV. While Rogers isn\u2019t looking to spin out S&amp;M or have a tracking stock, we don\u2019t believe a similarly sized discount is warranted given there will have been 3 monetization events 3Q24-1H27 related to the sports assets which enjoy full vertical integration and will be leveraged by the telecom businesses. We\u2019re using 25 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Maintaining his \u201coutperform\u201d rating for Rogers shares, Mr. Shine raised his target by $1 to $63. The average on the Street is $59.52.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cTarget moves up as we now include in our forecast 4Q outflow of $3.75-billion and 1H27 inflow of $5-billion related to key next steps over next 12 months for sports &amp; media assets,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Desjardins Securities analyst Frederic Tremblay says he views the first-quarter earnings report from Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DBM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DBM-T\/\">DBM-T<\/a>) \u201cpositively\u201d on the Vancouver based company \u201cdelivering gross margin strength, operating expense control and strategic investments that reinforce its strong positioning in a dynamic demand and pricing environment for construction materials.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Doman shares closed up 1.1 per cent on Monday after it reported revenue of $762.0-million, down 3.9 per cent due largely to lower pricing of certain construction materials but up 18.3 per cent sequentially and above Mr. Tremblay\u2019s $754.6-million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share grew 1.1 per cent from the same period a year ago to 27 cents, blowing past the analyst\u2019s 17-cent projection.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe were pleased by the margin performance as strong procurement execution contributed to gross margin expansion to 17.0 per cent, exceeding our 16.3-per-cent forecast and marking its highest level in nearly three years,\u201d he added. \u201cCombined with disciplined operating expense management, this translated into a beat on adjusted EBITDA. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs is typical ahead of the busy construction season, 1Q26 was a period of significant working capital investment. In addition, capex was higher than usual in 1Q, as DBM made a strategic property purchase and invested in equipment to support a near-term increase in US-based fencing capacity to capture a growth opportunity at attractive margins. With this, leverage was 4.6 times adjusted EBITDA (in line with our forecast). We forecast a return to less than 4 times in 2H26 and view this as aligned with management\u2019s leverage comfort zone and supportive of its ongoing M&amp;A strategy (with a view that post-acquisition peaks are followed by debt repayments supported by DBM\u2019s healthy annual cash flow profile).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Emphasizing its \u201cmargin resilience in a dynamic environment,\u201d Mr. Tremblay raised his target for Doman shares to $12.50 from $12, which is the average, keeping a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cNorth American construction markets are showing potential pricing upside later in 2026. However, visibility on a near-term volume recovery remains limited due to housing affordability pressures and macro uncertainty, though longer-term demand drivers remain intact. DBM\u2019s margin outlook appears resilient, supported by pricing flexibility, value-add products and operational execution,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Zachary Evershed to $13.50 from $12.50 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe rate DBM Outperform as it continues to improve underlying profitability despite a difficult near-term environment, setting up for a bullish long-term outlook when housing markets bounce back, driven by strong demographics and under-building over the last decade,\u201d said Mr. Evershed. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Stifel\u2019s Ian Gillies to $12.25 from $12 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201c. We do not believe this level of gross margins is sustainable, but a strong 1Q26 should position DBM to meet the high end of its gross margin guidance of 16.0 per cent (2025: 16.2 per cent; 2026E: 16.2 per cent). This is supported by SYP pricing continue to inch higher, 6.1 per cent in 2Q26E. Our estimates are modestly increased with 2026E\/2027E EBITDA up 2.7 per cent\/0.7 per cent, respectively,\u201d said Mr. Gillies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Stifel analyst Daryl Young thinks \u201cthe worst is behind\u201d NFI Group Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NFI-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NFI-T\/\">NFI-T<\/a>) and predicts \u201cvaluation expansion across the year as it regains its execution track record.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cQ1\/26 was a solid start to the year, reflecting continued momentum in the manufacturing division, with profitability improving significantly (EBITDA margins of 8.5 per cent increased 370 basis points year-over-year),\u201d he said. \u201cBus deliveries were slower than expected, primarily related to weak U.K. sales combined with production staging. However, management noted that April was very strong and that volumes should increase across the year, including with the ramp up of the All-Canadian build facility. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cGiven the strong EBITDA\/EU of $59.5k in Q1\/26 despite the low deliveries, we think that NFI could surprise to the upside on margins across the back half of the year. Additionally, key issues around tariffs, seat supply, and battery recall all remain in check.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client note released Tuesday, Mr. Young updated his estimates for the Winnipeg-based company to reflect the quarterly results and management\u2019s commentary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFull-year revenue and EBITDA guidance remains unchanged (adjusted EBITDA of $370-million-$410-million),\u201d he said. \u201cManagement acknowledged that deliveries were lower to start the year, but emphasized that production is ramping up nicely and that the supply chain and broader operational challenges have significantly improved (with the seat supplier challenges expected to be fully resolved during Q2\/26). Moreover, Q1\/26 did see modest disruption as the team refocused for smoother future production at higher volumes, including minimizing \u201cout of station\u201d work. Layer on the ongoing ramp up of the new All-Canadian build facility and there should be significant production and operating leverage\/margin momentum across the year. In terms of tariffs, management reaffirmed that there will not be material new impacts from Section 232 changes (with the inflationary costs a pass-through), and that guidance already incorporates assumptions for higher freight and shipping costs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Reaffirming his \u201cbuy\u201d rating for NFI shares, Mr. Young raised his target to $26 from $25.50. The average is $25.58.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFrom a macro perspective, we believe the outlook for NFI is extremely encouraging, given record levels of government funding available for North American transit agencies to support fleet replacement and conversion to zero emission buses (\u2019ZEBs\u2019). Additionally, the competitive environment has markedly improved from 2019, when there was a looming fear of industry overcapacity with several new North American entrants, versus today where the U.S. market has effectively been rationalized to a duopoly (and a monopoly in several major markets). In our view, NFI has industry-leading products and is best positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the North American transit market as the supply chain challenges ease, clearing the way for strong earnings growth and valuation expansion,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Touting \u201ctorque to the upside into 2027,\u201d BMO\u2019s John Gibson upgraded Trican Well Service Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TCW-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TCW-T\/\">TCW-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cmarket perform\u201d with a $9 target, up from $7 and above the $8.10 average on the Street. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;TCW\u2019s Q1\/26 results were above expectations, with a pick-up in April activity driving results higher. While we don\u2019t believe the strong quarter was commodity driven, we do expect rising activity levels and pricing in 2H\/26 and 2027 as producers look to increase spending, \u201d he said. \u201cIn our view, TCW\u2019s financial results hold some of the best torque to higher activity in the WCSB, while the pressure pumping supply\/demand balance currently sits in a tight band.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In a client report released Tuesday titled Going to the Sidelines as We Await Growth Signs, TD Cowen\u2019s Vince Valentini downgraded illumin Holdings Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ILLM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ILLM-T\/\">ILLM-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d with a 90-cent target, down from $1.05. The average on the Street is $1.15.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFollowing the return of CEO Tal Hayek, we are cautiously optimistic about a turnaround at ILLM. However, we believe a turnaround may take time given the reorganizing of the sales structure before we see results. ILLM maintains $37-million in cash, which we believe helps protect against any future downside risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe believe that growth at illumin can be unlocked over time and that they maintain the right assets to drive organic growth with the potential to layer in inorganic growth on top. However, ILLM requires an update to its sales structure as it attempts to bring on larger accounts that can make a spending difference. The restructuring of the sales function has started following some layoffs in Q1, and we believe that a few quarters are needed to build the pipeline. We would need to see a couple of quarters of good growth before we can become more optimistic on ILLM shares. In particular, we would be looking to see progress in Self-service illumin and Managed services (the DSP assets) before reassessing. With that being said, we believe that the downside risk remains contained with the $37-million in cash representing almost 80% of the current market capitalization.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Seeing \u201cMiddle East dynamics in focus\u201d ahead of the release of its first-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, RBC\u2019s Ryland Conrad trimmed his AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AGTF-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AGTF-T\/\">AGTF-T<\/a>) to $24 from $25 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFollowing estimate revisions mainly to reflect lower revenue growth assumptions given prolonged conflict in the Middle East, and rolling forward the basis of our valuation, our price target decreases,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFollowing its 2019 take-private and subsequent IPO in March 2026, we believe AGT has repositioned the business with the right recipe to deliver steady value creation, supported by: (i) a lower risk profile and a growth outlook increasingly driven by less cyclical, higher-margin revenue streams; (ii) a strong balance sheet (0.2 times pro forma net debt\/adjusted EBITDA) combined with annual FCF of more than $100-million; and (iii) favourable structural tailwinds for affordable, nutrient-dense food. At a FTM [forward 12-month] EV\/EBITDA of 5.7 times versus Canadian SMID-cap packaged food peers at 9.0 times, we believe the shares are mispriced and the valuation discount should narrow over time as AGT executes on its growth strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* After incorporating a \u201cstrong start\u201d to the year into his forecast, National Bank\u2019s Shane Nagle raised his target for Barrick Mining Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\">ABX-T<\/a>) to $75 from $72.50 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $81.60.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe have incorporated strong Q1\/26 financial results, and increased cost assumptions to account for ongoing inflationary pressures on consumable. We maintain our Outperform rating based on a discounted valuation, improving operational outlook and our expectation that ABX will be successful in surfacing value from the planned IPO of its North American portfolio,\u201d said Mr. Nagle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Jaeme Gloyn lowered his target Brookfield Business Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBUC-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBUC-N\/\">BBUC-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBUC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBUC-T\/\">BBUC-T<\/a>) target to US$42 from US$44 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average target on the Street is US$43.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cDespite tariff risks and potential secondary impacts, we expect BBU\u2019s diversified portfolio of companies across sectors\/geographies will continue to deliver solid results,\u201d said Mr. Gloyn. \u201cAdditionally, the proceeds from the Clarios dividend recapitalization and the secondary sale of three assets provide optionality for capital allocation and ultimately value creation as BBU repurchases shares and reinvests in new businesses (e.g., Chemelex, Antylia Scientific, First National, Fosber). Moreover, we continue to believe BBU will ultimately benefit from a more active M&amp;A backdrop that will drive increased monetizations in the future. Lastly, we believe the conversion to a single corporate structure will improve liquidity, index inclusion, and ultimately support a higher share price.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Mr. Gloyn reduced his Fiera Capital Corp. (F<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FSZ-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FSZ-T\/\">SZ-T<\/a>) target by $1 to $6, below the $6.34 average, with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201c Adj. EBITDA of $43-million missed Street $4-million,\u201d said Mr. Gloyn. \u201cGiven the EBITDA miss and ongoing net outflows, we do not expect Q1 results will shift the still tepid sentiment toward the stock. While Private Markets continues its positive trajectory, and overall costs appear well contained, we need to see the Public Markets business show consistent inflows to become more bullish.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Don DeMarco raised his B2Gold Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BTO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BTO-T\/\">BTO-T<\/a>) target to $10.70 from $10 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $9.79.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cQ1\/26 operational and financial results [featured] a quality financial beat as Fekola, Goose, Masbate and Otjikoto mines all delivered better-than-expected production and costs, driving higher quarter-over-quarter FCF,\u201d said Mr. DeMarco.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TD Cowen\u2019s Tim James moved his Chorus Aviation Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CHR-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CHR-T\/\">CHR-T<\/a>) to $32 from $31 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $30.67.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cContinue to expect forward EBITDA multiple expansion over 12 months to 5.5 times (from 4.7 times currently) as investors appreciate capital return program, asset monetization opportunities and growth in non-CPA revenue (parts sales, MRO &amp; contract flying),\u201d said Mr. James. \u201cWe forecast 2026-29 cumulative FCF (CHR def\u2019n + asset sale proceeds) in line with market cap, and expect 30-per-cent returned to shareholders. No change to thesis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Mr. James also raised his target for Magellan Aerospace Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MAL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MAL-T\/\">MAL-T<\/a>) to $30, exceeding the $28 average, from $27 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe view the difference in Q1\/26 EBITDA\/FCF vs forecast as immaterial and not altering our bullish investment thesis. Stronger-than-forecast revenue and Magellan\u2019s civil and defence exposure provides a backdrop for strong earnings growth and higher multiples than recent years. Outlook for commercial and defence markets remain strong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Adam Shine trimmed his Cineplex Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CGX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CGX-T\/\">CGX-T<\/a>) target to $13.50 from $14, keeping an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, while Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Aravinda Galappatthige bumped his target to $11.50 from $10.50 with a \u201chold\u201d rating. The average is $13.13. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCineplex reported its Q1\/26 results [Monday] morning, with revenue and adj EBITDAal lower than expected due to a variance in the high margin Cinema Media segment. We continue to expect double-digit box office growth through the remainder of F2026 led by one of the stronger film slates in recent years. The 2027 slate is still forming, but we already see highly prospective titles from the Avengers and Star Wars franchises.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cDespite the positive box office trends expected for the rest of the year, and renewed speculation in the financial press around the possible sale of the company, we have opted to maintain our HOLD rating. This is due to the evident inconsistency in FCF generation (which makes it difficult to assign a reliable FCF yield to the stock), which in turn is on account of uneven box office conditions over the years, and the levered balance sheet,\u201d said Mr. Galappatthige.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In a note titled Another beat, same structural story, National Bank\u2019s Giuliano Thornhill raised his Extendicare Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EXE-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EXE-T\/\">EXE-T<\/a>) target to $34 from $32 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $35.75.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cEXE trounced expectations through a seasonally slow period (Q2 and Q3 have been historically stronger), reinforcing our previous research suggesting hospital capacity constraints are structurally changing the business,\u201d said Mr. Thornhill \u201cThis dynamic has more than doubled HHC [Home Health Care] organic growth relative to historical demographic and LTC [Long-Term Care] drivers (7-9 per cent). Importantly, recent growth has coincided with a 14-per-cent year-over-year reduction in ALC [Alternate Level of Care] volumes. A sequential decline in this ADV [average daily volume] growth rate, whenever it may occur, is most likely to be realized from entirely addressing these volumes as opposed to funding or labour availability. We now forecast Existing CTG growth of 16 per cent in 2027. Sustaining recent 18-20-per-cent volume growth would imply $0.10\/sh of incremental NOI upside to current forecasts. Further multiple expansion would also take shape under this outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions RBC Dominion Securities analyst Nelson Ng says&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":664511,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-664510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664510\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/664511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}