CLEVELAND \u2014 When he steps into the batter\u2019s box and his face pops up on the scoreboard beside a bunch of statistics, Steven Kwan never peeks at those numbers.<\/p>\n
\u201cEver,\u201d Kwan said. \u201c(Whether) they\u2019re good or bad.\u201d<\/p>\n
The numbers are more striking this season, and not just because they\u2019re posted all over the ballpark in 144-point font four or five times each game. More than a quarter of the way into the season, Kwan has yet to find a rhythm at the plate. It\u2019s been an uncharacteristic stretch for a two-time All-Star who has served as Cleveland\u2019s leadoff hitter since 2022.<\/p>\n
This season, Kwan has logged a .206\/.311\/.265 line.<\/p>\n
\u201cObviously, the start\u2019s pretty disappointing, just from an overall production standpoint,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In his first at-bat Tuesday, Kwan worked the count 2-1 against Angels starter Walbert Ure\u00f1a before he socked a low-and-away changeup to left field for a single. It was vintage Kwan, depositing a tough pitch into a vacant plot of outfield grass. It was precisely the type of counter the coaching staff has been seeking, an answer to the growing trend of pitchers peppering the outside corner when facing him.<\/p>\n
The single snapped Kwan\u2019s 0-for-12 funk.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the time now to really believe in \u2018No highs, no lows, stay right in the middle,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cBefore, I\u2019ve had the comfort of having some good numbers and then when a dry spell happens, \u2018OK, well I still have these numbers to fall back on.\u2019 Obviously, I don\u2019t have that luxury this time, but I just have to frame it as a good, new challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n
Steven Kwan, through the years<\/p>\n
YearAVGOBPSLG<\/p>\n
2022<\/p>\n
.298<\/p>\n
.373<\/p>\n
.400<\/p>\n
2023<\/p>\n
.268<\/p>\n
.340<\/p>\n
.370<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
.292<\/p>\n
.368<\/p>\n
.425<\/p>\n
2025<\/p>\n
.272<\/p>\n
.330<\/p>\n
.374<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
.206<\/p>\n
.311<\/p>\n
.265<\/p>\n
What the numbers say<\/p>\n
In their two encounters, Ure\u00f1a tossed six of seven pitches to the outer part of the plate. At this point, the approach is unsurprising to Kwan.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s looking to try to figure out ways to get them to throw him back to his hot zones,\u201d said Cleveland hitting coach Grant Fink.<\/p>\n
Those hot zones are on the inner half of the plate. Pitchers know that. Pitchers also know Kwan almost never swings at the first pitch.<\/p>\n
League-average first-pitch swing percentage: 30.1 percent
Kwan\u2019s first-pitch swing percentage: 9.6 percent<\/p>\n
One strategic tweak that could pay dividends, right?<\/p>\n
\u201cAggression early in the count, first pitch,\u201d said bench coach Tony Arnerich.<\/p>\n
Otherwise, Kwan risks an automatic 0-1 deficit every trip to the plate.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s just getting behind early,\u201d Fink said, \u201cso we\u2019ve had a lot of conversations about being a little more aggressive, ready to hit earlier on.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just the first pitch.<\/p>\n
Kwan is swinging at 36.1 percent of all pitches, the lowest mark of his career and more than 11 percent lower than the league average. He\u2019s swinging at only 51.2 percent of what Statcast deems \u201cmeatballs,\u201d pitches thrown down the middle, 25 percentage points lower than the league-average swing rate on those pitches. Kwan said that the last few weeks in particular, he has seen mistake pitches and has \u201cnot capitalized on them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Part of the issue is timing, and Kwan said he and the hitting coaches are \u201ctrying to pinpoint\u201d how to correct it.<\/p>\n
Granted, he\u2019s not seeing a ton of meatballs. He\u2019s seeing plenty of pitches away, especially after pitchers flip in a first-pitch strike.<\/p>\n
\u201cI feel like every at-bat, I\u2019m going up there with two strikes,\u201d Kwan said, \u201cand I have to fight, defend.\u201d<\/p>\n
And that, the Guardians contend, has spurred dramatic decreases in some of his under-the-hood numbers. Kwan isn\u2019t a metrics darling to begin with, at least when it comes to batted ball data, but he\u2019s experiencing marked decreases in exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed. It\u2019s not that his metrics are low; it\u2019s that they\u2019re so much lower than usual for him.<\/p>\n
Exit velocityHard-hit rate<\/p>\n
2022<\/p>\n
85.10 mph<\/p>\n
20.80%<\/p>\n
2023<\/p>\n
86.0 mph<\/p>\n
18.80%<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
86.30 mph<\/p>\n
23.70%<\/p>\n
2025<\/p>\n
86.20 mph<\/p>\n
19.30%<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
82.50 mph<\/p>\n
10.50%<\/p>\n
\u201cTwo strikes, the bat speed\u2019s always going to fall,\u201d Kwan said.<\/p>\n
More two-strike counts equal more defensive swings, more attempts to keep the at-bat going, rather than uncorking an aggressive swing that aims to inflict damage. His average exit velocity against two-strike pitches is 81.4 mph, another tick below his overall mark. He\u2019s still drawing walks at a healthy rate, and he\u2019s adept at avoiding strikeouts.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s one of 15 qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts.<\/p>\n
He makes an almost unparalleled amount of contact. But not all contact is productive contact.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s trying to find that right now, so guys have to start coming back in and not just living away for three pitches in a row,\u201d Fink said. \u201cAnd being a little more aggressive so he doesn\u2019t allow them to get to 0-2.\u201d<\/p>\n
The past, present and future<\/p>\n