Good morning. In focus today, we look at what Canada\u2019s major-project push will require on the ground \u2013 and why Alberta separatism has become part of the investment conversation.<\/p>\n
Up firstIn the news<\/p>\n
Separation trial: An Alberta judge has struck down<\/a> a petition for an independence referendum in response to a legal challenge, ruling the government had a duty to consult with First Nations.<\/p>\n Deals: Equinox Gold Corp. is bidding to join the ranks of North America\u2019s largest gold producers with an all-stock, $7-billion offer<\/a> for Orla Mining Ltd.<\/p>\n Labour: The Bank of Canada says there is no clear evidence to date that artificial intelligence has led to widespread job losses, but further adoption of the technology could lead to permanent changes in the economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Joe Dion (left), Susannah Pierce, Chris Avery and The Globe’s Emma Graney. Major ideas on major projects.Todd Korol\/The Globe and Mail<\/p>\n In focusHow to harness all of Alberta\u2019s energy<\/p>\n Alberta is leading Canada in real GDP growth. It has relatively low exposure to the U.S. trade war, the youngest population in Canada and a reasonable cost of living. It\u2019s also emerging as an AI powerhouse. <\/p>\n But unstable oil prices are converging with higher unemployment and uncertainty over the future of energy infrastructure. In Calgary yesterday, The Globe brought together key decision-makers to coach the province and country through major projects, political divides and economic crises.<\/p>\n \u201cSome of the projects that will define the next decade are taking shape right here,\u201d Sven List, an executive with Export Development Canada, told an audience of business and political leaders to kick off the event.<\/p>\n A call to kill the carbon tax<\/p>\n The fate of some of those projects will depend on whether carbon pricing still exists on an industrial level, said Jon McKenzie, chief executive of Calgary-based energy company Cenovus Energy Inc.<\/p>\n The federal government\u2019s carbon tax does nothing to induce the oil and gas sector to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, he said in the wake of a report by The Globe<\/a> on Tuesday that Ottawa and Alberta are close to finalizing an accord on industrial carbon pricing that would see the fee rise to $130 a tonne by 2040. <\/p>\n Even with price levels that critics described as too far on the horizon to render meaningful carbon reduction, the price levels under discussion do not alter the \u201cfundamental premise\u201d of the issue facing industry, McKenzie said.<\/p>\n \u201cWhether it\u2019s $130 a tonne or $170 a tonne, there is no other jurisdiction that does this,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the other piece that will be important is what is the stringency and the effectiveness of this over time. Does it continue to grow and become a bigger burden to us? Or is this something that is going to be pushed out into the future?\u201d<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie speaks with senior Globe editor Ryan MacDonald.Todd Korol\/The Globe and Mail<\/p>\n Major projects<\/p>\n A need for speed<\/p>\n Leaders of national projects said yesterday that political urgency will not be enough to get pipelines, ports, mines, power projects and trade corridors built. <\/p>\n The federal government\u2019s Major Projects Office is meant to streamline reviews and align departments, provinces, territories, Indigenous partners and other stakeholders around national-interest projects. <\/p>\n But Susannah Pierce, former president and country chair of Shell Canada, said capital will flow only to projects that can offer returns, certainty and customers.<\/p>\n Execution depends on local support as much as political support, Pierce said \u2013 particularly in British Columbia, where many First Nations are not under treaty and proponents need to address rights and title questions from the start.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is the ground game,\u201d she said. \u201cIt is getting community engagement right. It is about siting the project in such a way that you have buy-in from the communities, engagement [with] the First Nations right up front.\u201d<\/p>\n Joe Dion, chief executive officer and director of the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, said Indigenous equity can no longer be treated as a late-stage addition to pipelines, ports and other major projects.<\/p>\n Any new pipeline will require First Nations partnerships from the start, said Dion, whose group has been pursuing Indigenous ownership in the Trans Mountain pipeline system. <\/p>\n \u201cThey can\u2019t own it without First Nations partnerships,\u201d he said. \u201cFirst Nations have to be at the helm.\u201d<\/p>\n Separation anxiety<\/p>\n \u2018Any risk creates uncertainty\u2019 <\/p>\n There were no clear champions of Alberta separatism evident on stage yesterday, but the issue nevertheless entered all the chats.<\/p>\n Separation wasn\u2019t seen as likely by most leaders. But they shared a common concern: The sentiment adds uncertainty for investors at a moment when Canada is trying to attract capital for major projects.<\/p>\n \u201cAny risk creates uncertainty,\u201d Pierce said. \u201cSo, adding to the list of risks that need to be managed when you\u2019re taking a substantial investment decision, this could be one.\u201d<\/p>\n Dion said his Treaty Six First Nation does not see separation as realistic \u2013 and that a stronger case for poor treatment by Ottawa could be made by Indigenous peoples.<\/p>\n \u201cIf anybody should talk about separation, it should be us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The AI factor<\/p>\n \u2018Everything should be just fine\u2019<\/p>\n Former Bank of Canada governor Steve Poloz ended the day with a cautionary note. The rapid advance in artificial intelligence amounts to a fourth industrial revolution \u2013 following steam power, electricity and computers \u2013 that will fundamentally reshape economies, societies and politics. Canada could end up richer. But there\u2019s turbulence ahead.<\/p>\n Lots of it.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve already got a big dispersion of income. It\u2019s going to get worse. We think politics is hard to deal with today. It\u2019s going to get worse. You think there\u2019s more geopolitical adventurism going on \u2026 that\u2019s what happened each of the other three times. So it\u2019s gonna get worse. And so the volatility that we\u2019re living in today is maybe nothing compared to what we\u2019ll be in five years from now,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cApart from that though, everything should be just fine.\u201d<\/p>\n With files from Mark Rendell and Emma Graney<\/p>\n ChartedCondos drag on Calgary<\/p>\n Calgary posted a year-over-year decline in housing prices for the first time since 2020, according to new data from Wahi-RPS<\/a>. That marks a major reversal from strong gains in 2024 and early 2025, when the city\u2018s average home prices increased in excess of 10 per cent. Much of the downward pressure is coming from condo values.<\/p>\n Quoted<\/p>\n The lessons we learn here \u2013 hard work, resilience and believing in yourself \u2013 stay with you your entire career.<\/p>\n \u2014 Atiba Hutchinson, Brampton soccer legend<\/p>\n Why do so many of Canada\u2019s great soccer players come from Brampton?<\/a><\/p>\n Up nextMore files we\u2019re following today<\/p>\n In China: U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing<\/a>.<\/p>\n By the numbers: Home sales in Canada rose 0.7 per cent in April, the first increase in half a year as falling home prices brought potential buyers back into the market, Rachelle Younglai reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n Before the bell: Earnings we\u2019re tracking today include Canadian Tire Corp.; Brookfield Corp.; Canada Goose Holdings Inc.; Keyera Corp.<\/a> and Quebecor Inc.<\/p>\n Morning update<\/p>\n