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<\/p>\nNearly every NASCAR team came into 2026 expected to be in the market to sign at least one new driver, creating anticipation throughout the industry on how \u201cSilly Season,\u201d the league\u2019s annual free-agent frenzy, would unfold. Many believed that there would be significant movement, a seismic shakeup featuring several notable drivers joining new teams.<\/p>\n
Now, after 12 races, five months and much speculation, expectations have shifted. There will be some jumping around, because there always is, just likely not as many eye-popping moves as had been anticipated.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what I\u2019m hearing.<\/p>\n
Kyle Busch and Richard Childress Racing<\/p>\n
Even before the season, a frequent question was whether Kyle Busch, on an expiring contract, would re-sign with Richard Childress Racing or the parties would go their separate ways at the end of the year. Busch said he wanted to get through the opening stretch of the season to see how RCR was doing before making any decision. When the organization then struggled, a divorce felt inevitable.<\/p>\n
Despite the sluggish performance, it is increasingly likely that Busch and RCR will remain together, with Busch eventually signing an extension, team and league sources say.<\/p>\n
Busch is in the midst of a career-worst 105-race winless streak and sits 66 points out of a Chase berth, but each side has reasons for this relationship to continue into 2027. There is no other potential opening where Busch would seamlessly fit, nor a team with an open spot that would be an upgrade over his current home. Leaving would likely be a step backward, which makes little sense for a driver who just turned 41 and has few prime years remaining.<\/p>\n
From the RCR perspective, the decision to re-sign Busch would be understandable. He remains an upper-echelon talent. Yes, he\u2019s in a slump, but he is certainly still capable of winning races. If RCR were to lose him, there isn\u2019t another driver available who could instantly provide the same level of performance.<\/p>\n
Then there is the business side. Busch is one of the most marketable drivers in the sport, with a large social media following \u2014 a vital factor that sponsors seek. RCR has maximized this during Busch\u2019s four years with the organization, regularly bringing on new partners who specifically want to be linked with the two-time Cup champion. Losing Busch would mean losing a key conduit to retaining both current and potential new sponsors.<\/p>\n
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\n Alex Bowman is in a contract year with Hendrick Motorsports. (Sean Gardner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Alex Bowman and Hendrick Motorsports<\/p>\n
Alex Bowman\u2019s future with Hendrick Motorsports is a topic of speculation each year, and with Bowman in a contract year, it\u2019s no different in 2026.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been a rough stretch for Bowman, whose last win came in July 2024. He was a non-factor most weeks in 2025 and then missed four races this season while recovering from vertigo. All this has happened during a period when teammates William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have each won multiple times and vied for championships, with Larson winning the title last year. It\u2019s why Bowman\u2019s future with Hendrick is very much unsettled, even if he is well-liked within Hendrick and has the full support of primary sponsor Ally.<\/p>\n
Should Bowman not return to Hendrick, how the team fills the vacancy will be fascinating. Does it look to stay in-house, or does NASCAR\u2019s most accomplished organization, and the one with the deepest pockets and resources, leverage its blueblood status to entice an A-level talent to make the jump?<\/p>\n
The former option would see Hendrick promote Corey Day from the O\u2019Reilly Auto Parts Series, where the 20-year-old has impressed in his first full season in NASCAR\u2019s second-tier series, with one win and nine top 10s in 13 starts.<\/p>\n
While Day has shown great potential, another season in O\u2019Reilly could be good for his long-term development. Still, this is a route Hendrick has chosen before, notably with Byron in 2018 and Kyle Busch in 2005.<\/p>\n
Outside of the organization, a name frequently linked to Hendrick is Connor Zilisch, with both sides believed to have interest in the other, according to league sources. Complicating matters is that Zilisch is under contract with Trackhouse Racing, thereby requiring Hendrick to negotiate a buyout \u2014 if Trackhouse is amenable. More likely is that Hendrick waits until next year to pursue Zilisch.<\/p>\n
Beyond Day and Zilisch, there is not another driver known to be on Hendrick\u2019s radar should they need to replace Bowman. And for those who think Hendrick should sign Busch, who drove for the team from 2005-2007, a reunion is not in the cards, league sources say.<\/p>\n
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\n Brad Keselowski\u2019s RFK Racing has a charter conundrum to address. (David Jensen \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
RFK Racing<\/p>\n
RFK Racing leadership faces a unique situation. Not only do all three drivers (Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece) have contracts either expiring or with options that need to be exercised, but the team\u2019s contract with anchor sponsor Kroger is also up.<\/p>\n
RFK also finds itself without a third charter, as the one it\u2019s leasing from Rick Ware Racing is already spoken for. That charter is one of two owned by RWR, one of which is already sold to Legacy Motor Club, while RWR is keeping the other for itself in 2027.<\/p>\n
The driver situation is fairly straightforward, with Keselowski, who\u2019s also a team co-owner, saying there is a strong likelihood all three drivers return next year. Something to keep in mind: Buescher is one of the more highly regarded drivers in the garage, and there are known teams with varying degrees of interest in him.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll three drivers are going through their contract process,\u201d Keselowski said. \u201cThat said, I think we feel pretty comfortable, but nothing cemented for sure.\u201d<\/p>\n
Negotiations with Kroger, one of the biggest supermarket chains in the United States, are ongoing, with the company also expected to return, though with another caveat \u2014 Kroger is one of the more sought-after sponsors in the sport, so it would have viable options should it decide to look around.<\/p>\n
How RFK resolves the charter conundrum is much less clear. If Keselowski is correct that he, Buescher and Preece all return in 2027, then RFK would have three drivers yet only two charters.<\/p>\n
The organization could elect to have one of its teams run as an \u201copen\u201d entry. There are downsides, however, including no assurances of starting every points race and lower payouts. Multiple team executives told The Athletic there is a $5 million gulf, at a minimum, in revenue between running as a charter team versus being an open entry over the course of the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur primary goal is to (secure) a third charter,\u201d Keselowski said. \u201cWe have sponsorship contracts through next year to run three teams. And there is an option on the table to run the third car unchartered, if we have to. There\u2019s financial implications to doing that, but we\u2019re committed to our team and our people, and we\u2019re going to find a solution.\u201d<\/p>\n
Could RFK purchase a charter? Yes, though it would likely be expensive. While a charter hasn\u2019t been sold since they were effectively made evergreen following last year\u2019s lawsuit brought by 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports against NASCAR and then-CEO Jim France, the lowest price point is estimated to be approaching $100 million. This is a sizable figure, especially for an ownership group that has previously balked at buying a charter when the price was considerably less.<\/p>\n
Leasing a charter again would negate concerns over missing the Daytona 500 or any other race, but there may not be an available charter to lease. And this would also only be a one-year stopgap, with RFK in the same position next year. Still, if a deal can be reached with a team willing to lease a charter, this option makes a lot of sense.<\/p>\n
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\n Michael McDowell is lowest in the Cup standings among Spire\u2019s drivers. (Sean Gardner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Spire Motorsports<\/p>\n
Spire Motorsports, in recent years, has made several high-profile signings, from drivers to crew chiefs to front office personnel, so it comes as no surprise that Spire is again a team to watch.<\/p>\n
Unless Spire decides against making some noise this go-round.<\/p>\n
After years of shuffling and reshuffling, Spire is preferring stability and at present is happy with its three-driver lineup consisting of Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell and Daniel Su\u00e1rez. The consensus within the organization, team sources say, is that they\u2019re not itching to make a change. (Su\u00e1rez was considered on the bubble coming into the season, but his impressive performance \u2014 he\u2019s currently 14th and in a Chase spot \u2014 has quieted any speculation that he could be one-and-done.)<\/p>\n