{"id":671840,"date":"2026-05-15T19:45:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T19:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/671840\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T19:45:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T19:45:12","slug":"mlb-home-run-predictions-today-best-hr-prop-bets-picks-parlay-odds-for-friday-may-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/671840\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, May 15"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The baseball gods owe me one today. I started the week in the black before back-to-back donuts, so I\u2019m cashing in the home-run luck card on a loaded Friday slate.<\/p>\n

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The projections are finally opening up with more than two dozen +EV names and\u00a0MLB player props<\/a> showing value, and a long list of pitchers begging to be faded.<\/p>\n

Tyler Mahle<\/a> in Sutter Health Park is a recipe for four-baggers, and Athletics<\/a>‘ shiny new rookie Henry Bolte is going to test that.<\/p>\n

These are my favorite home run bets for Friday, May 15.<\/p>\n

UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.<\/p>\n

Best MLB home run props today<\/p>\n

Player to hit a HR<\/p>\n

Odds<\/p>\n

Heliot Ramos<\/a><\/p>\n

+475<\/p>\n

Pete Alonso<\/a><\/p>\n

+353<\/p>\n

Henry Bolte<\/p>\n

+750<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcb2Today’s HR parlay<\/p>\n

+13850<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Heliot Ramos (+475)<\/p>\n

Heliot Ramos<\/a> and the San Francisco Giants<\/a> have a great home run matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right field and Aaron Civale<\/a> on the mound.<\/p>\n

The Athletics<\/a> starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn\u2019t built to last. He also owns one of the lower ground-ball rates in baseball, and that 0.86 HR\/9 feels more likely to climb toward his career mark of 1.30.<\/p>\n

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Like many pitchers, his numbers in Sacramento are also much worse than they are on the road.<\/p>\n

Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today, according to the projections at Covers. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he\u2019ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.<\/p>\n

Outside of the Coors Field game, this matchup carries the biggest total on the board. Bombs away, boys.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+353)<\/p>\n

If Zack Littell<\/a> doesn\u2019t get pummeled today, I\u2019ll be at a loss for words.\u00a0He\u2019s one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR\/FB rate, and xFIP.<\/p>\n

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It\u2019s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore<\/a> bat here, especially with one of the league\u2019s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He\u2019s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances.<\/p>\n

Pete Alonso<\/a> is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. Taylor Ward<\/a> grades as the better +EV play according to Covers projections, but he\u2019s launched just one longball this year and Alonso has been one of the better bats to back all season.<\/p>\n

If you want to get really aggressive, I\u2019d build a home run round robin with\u00a0Adley Rutschman<\/a> (+620) and Gunnar Henderson<\/a> (+361). If you\u2019re hunting home runs, the Orioles might be the best target on the board today.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: Nationals.TV, MASN<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Henry Bolte (+750)<\/p>\n

Henry Bolte<\/a> was built for a Friday dinger. The three-game rookie who hit 12 homers in Triple-A last year in just 37 games has three hits in the big leagues, and already owns the second-fastest bat speed in the Athletics lineup.<\/p>\n

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Nick Kurtz<\/a> is +265 to go deep, and there\u2019s no way the rookie should be three times that price vs. Tyler Mahle and his awful HR\/FB rate.<\/p>\n

Every one of Bolte\u2019s swings through two games has been classified as a fast swing (75+ mph), compared to hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> sitting around 63%.<\/p>\n

The kid has a clear home-run swing, the right matchup, and the ideal setting today. This might be the last time we see his HR price above +500, especially at Sutter Health Park.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA<\/p>\n

Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record<\/p>\n

HR picks: 13-74, -6.94 units<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s HR parlay<\/p>\n

Heliot Ramos<\/p>\n

Bet Now
+13850<\/p>\n

Pete Alonso<\/p>\n

Henry Bolte<\/p>\n

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.<\/p>\n

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com<\/a>, read the full article here<\/a> and view our best betting sites<\/a> or check out our top sportsbook promos<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":671841,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[39955,52632,495,5462,49,48,19280,221821,246369,462,4012,471,512,82,207252,14561,56273,71493,502,21167],"class_list":["post-671840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-aaron-civale","tag-adley-rutschman","tag-athletics","tag-baltimore","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-gunnar-henderson","tag-heliot-ramos","tag-henry-bolte","tag-mlb","tag-nick-kurtz","tag-pete-alonso","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-sports","tag-sutter-health-park","tag-taylor-ward","tag-the-athletics","tag-tyler-mahle","tag-vladimir-guerrero-jr","tag-zack-littell"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/671840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=671840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/671840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/671841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=671840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=671840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=671840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}