{"id":672113,"date":"2026-05-15T22:36:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T22:36:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/672113\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T22:36:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T22:36:10","slug":"heres-mmamania-coms-mvp-mma-1-betting-odds-weekend-lock-whats-yours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/672113\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s MMAmania.com\u2019s MVP MMA 1 betting odds \u2018Weekend Lock\u2019 \u2026 what\u2019s yours?"},"content":{"rendered":"

MVP MMA 1<\/a> is less than 24 hours away \u2026<\/p>\n

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., May 16, 2026) inside Intuit Arena in Inglewood, California. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women\u2019s Bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey, returns to combat sports, facing fellow women\u2019s MMA pioneer<\/a>, Gina Carano, who is also returning.<\/p>\n

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We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com<\/a> called \u201cWeekend Lock,\u201d where we share one bet that we predict will slap in LA when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that\u2019s you!), so please tell us your most confident MMA MVP 1<\/a> betting lock in the comments section below (see full MMA MVP 1 odds here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s recap:<\/a> And we\u2019re back in the winner\u2019s circle as Grant Dawson scored a win at UFC 328 by submitting Mateusz Rebecki.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s keep rolling below:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Instead of doing a UFC weekend lock since I started this series, I\u2019ve decided to go with the mega Netflix card because, honestly, I\u2019m looking forward to it much more \u2014 and with that being said, I\u2019m taking Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry to go over 2.5 rounds at -210.<\/a><\/p>\n

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Here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n

At first glance, betting the over in a Diaz or Perry fight sounds insane. These are two of the most violent personalities in combat sports<\/a>. But once you dig into their styles and histories, the over actually makes a ton of sense.<\/p>\n

Neither man is a true one-punch knockout artist. Perry hits hard, sure, but his game has always been more about pressure, attrition, and accumulating damage than instantly flatlining opponents. Diaz is even more obvious in that regard. He overwhelms fighters with volume, cardio, and durability \u2014 not explosive power.<\/p>\n

And durability is the keyword here. Diaz has spent the better part of two decades eating shots from elite-level strikers and somehow continuing to march forward. Perry is similarly absurdly tough. The guy built an entire second act of his career in bare-knuckle fighting by simply refusing to break<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Another major factor: neither guy has competed in MMA in several years. Diaz\u2019s last MMA fight was against Tony Ferguson in 2022 (watch highlights<\/a>), and Perry last fought in MMA against Daniel Rodriguez in 2021.<\/p>\n

Ring rust<\/a> can often create slower starts, more cautious pacing, and longer feeling-out processes \u2014 especially in a matchup where both veterans know exactly how dangerous the other can be in chaotic exchanges. Don\u2019t expect either fighter to sprint recklessly into danger immediately \u2014 well, maybe Perry will.<\/p>\n

Stylistically, this also feels like a classic \u201cblood-and-guts war\u201d rather than a quick finish. Diaz loves to drag fights into deep waters and weaponize pace. Perry thrives in ugly, grinding exchanges. That combination often leads to extended violence rather than sudden endings.<\/p>\n

Even if somebody gets hurt early, both men are historically difficult to put away cleanly. Their reputations were built on surviving wars, not ending them in 90 seconds.<\/p>\n

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What could go wrong?<\/p>\n

The obvious danger is mileage. Both fighters have absorbed years of punishment, and eventually durability fades. Perry\u2019s aggression could overwhelm Diaz early, or Diaz\u2019s accumulation game could finally crack Perry faster than expected. There\u2019s also always chaos when two longtime brawlers collide.<\/p>\n

Still, given their styles, toughness, and tendency to engage in drawn-out wars, Diaz vs. Perry over 2.5 rounds (-210) looks like one of the safest plays on the MVP MMA 1 card.<\/p>\n

Nate Diaz To Win By KO\/TKO\/DQ: +1100<\/a>
Nate Diaz To Win By Submission: +450<\/a>
Nate Diaz To Win By Decision: +550<\/a>
Mike Perry To Win By KO\/TKO\/DQ: +185<\/a>
Mike Perry by Submission: +2500<\/a>
Mike Perry To Win By Decision: +165<\/a><\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest MVP MMA: \u201cRousey vs. Carano\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"MVP MMA 1 is less than 24 hours away \u2026 It all goes down this weekend (Sat., May…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":672114,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,3335,48,641,146728,194958,22332,638,211425,24584,1316,1867,82,69940],"class_list":["post-672113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-ca","tag-california","tag-canada","tag-fighting","tag-gina-carano","tag-inglewood","tag-mike-perry","tag-mma","tag-mvp-mma","tag-nate-diaz","tag-netflix","tag-ronda-rousey","tag-sports","tag-ultimate-fighting-championship"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=672113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672113\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/672114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=672113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=672113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=672113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}