The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran thrust the world into its worst-ever energy crisis, slashing oil production and sending prices soaring. Those much higher prices have generated windfalls for companies that operate outside the Persian Gulf \u2014 especially in the United States, which has been selling a lot more energy than usual.<\/p>\n
But inside the Persian Gulf, the story is much more complicated. The effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between the Gulf and the rest of the world, has forced the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and other countries to slash production and exports. Some are hurting worse than others. Those that can use pipelines to reroute their oil to ports away from the strait have fared a lot better than countries without such options.<\/p>\n
This energy crisis affects everyone, but not evenly. The New York Times analyzed months of export and pricing data from S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea and Argus Media to assess how much some of the world\u2019s biggest oil producers have been selling and at what price. The analysis looked specifically at oil and related products exported by sea, which have been most affected by the closure of the strait.<\/p>\n
Understanding who is winning and who is losing in that group helps explain why some countries are better positioned to withstand the economic consequences of this war. It also provides clues about the future. If the strait is no longer a reliable conduit, today\u2019s winners are likely to remain dominant. If it the strait reopens, countries\u2019 ability to recover will be informed by how painful the shutdown has been for them.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe longer the strait stays closed, those who have gained from this will continue to gain,\u201d said Jim Burkhard, who leads global oil research for S&P Global Energy. \u201cThose who are challenged by it, it could get more serious for them.\u201d<\/p>\n
United States<\/p>\n
The United States is the world\u2019s biggest producer of oil and natural gas, cushioning the economic blow from a war that it and Israel started. By late March, U.S. companies were exporting much more oil, diesel and other fuels than normal. That helped make up for a small portion of the energy the world has lost and kept prices from rising even further.<\/p>\n
But unlike many other big oil producers, the United States does not have a state-owned oil company. That means big oil companies are receiving the large majority of this extra revenue. So far, there is little sign they will reinvest those proceeds to drill more or to hire more workers. That means there is unlikely to be a big war-related economic boom in Texas, New Mexico and other oil-producing states.<\/p>\n
Instead, much of that extra revenue is likely to benefit investors in the form of higher stock prices and dividends. Many state governments will also earn more because they will receive bigger tax and royalty payments, as will landowners who have allowed oil drilling on their property.<\/p>\n
Russia<\/p>\n
Russia has been another big beneficiary \u2014 not because it is selling more oil, but because it is being paid more for its oil. The main reason is that the war has caused oil prices around the world to soar. The United States also temporarily lifted sanctions<\/a> on some Russian oil in March, an abrupt policy shift that most likely helped Russia receive more for its oil<\/a> than it otherwise would have. In early April, for example, the price for Russian oil sold off the Gulf of Finland approached $120 a barrel, up from $41 before the war. That said, Ukraine has sought to limit Russia\u2019s ability to capitalize on higher prices by attacking the country\u2019s oil infrastructure<\/a>.<\/p>\n Persian Gulf<\/p>\n Most producers in the Persian Gulf have not been as fortunate. If anything, the war has underscored the importance of having export outlets other than the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have fared relatively well because they invested years ago in oil pipelines that go around the strait, an expensive form of insurance that is paying off. Saudi Arabia\u2019s exports have fallen by over 150 million barrels during the war, compared with a year earlier, but its revenue from those sales rose by an estimated $9.2 billion.<\/p>\n Iran, which has been controlling access to the strait, also fared relatively well through mid-April. But the country\u2019s exports plunged after the United States imposed a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Iran, further straining the country\u2019s economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Nearby countries that have neither control over the strait nor alternative export routes have been hit especially hard. They include Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar.<\/p>\n