He doesn\u2019t specialize in market analysis and doesn\u2019t watch the day-to-day moves in the commodity markets.<\/p>\n
However, Andjelic closely follows events and trends that affect global agriculture.<\/p>\n
Read Also<\/p>\n
Two items, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the possibility of a Super El Ni\u00f1o, are expected to limit grain production in 2026 and 2027, Andjelic said.<\/p>\n Because Canada has a domestic supply of fuel and fertilizer, and competitors such as Australia do not, Canadian grain farmers have an edge right now.<\/p>\n \u201cCanada, along with most likely \u2026 Russia, are best positioned to take advantage of what\u2019s coming,\u201d Andjelic said.<\/p>\n Super El Ni\u00f1o? <\/p>\n There\u2019s a 90 to 96 per cent chance that an El Ni\u00f1o will develop this summer or autumn, says the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre<\/a> in the United States.<\/p>\n The chances of an El Ni\u00f1o developing this summer and fall is more than 90 percent, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Centre. The critical question is whether it develops into a strong or very strong<\/a> \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n An El Ni\u00f1o usually delivers warmer weather to agricultural regions of North America, including the Prairies and U.S. Midwest.<\/p>\n If it becomes very strong, Western Canada could see a repeat of 1997-98, a winter with minimal snowfall and mild temperatures.<\/p>\n Previous El Ni\u00f1os have disrupted crop production around the globe, including key exporters such as Australia.<\/p>\n It could be unrelated to El Ni\u00f1o, but farmers in the central U.S. Plains, are already suffering through a drought.<\/p>\n A lack of precipitation this winter and spring hammered the hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas and surrounding states. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting the smallest winter wheat crop<\/a> since 1966.<\/p>\n \u201cThe USDA\u2019s numbers were not just supportive (for price), they were historically supportive,\u201d Allison Thompson, a market analyst and owner of the Money Farm in Ada, Minnesota, said in AgWeek.<\/p>\n The winter wheat crop in northwestern Kansas is about a month ahead of normal development, said Jeanne Falk-Jones, an extension agronomist with Kansas State University.<\/p>\n Growers are looking at fields with unusually short and thin stands of wheat. Many farmers are having conversations with their crop insurance agent, trying to decide if their wheat is worth harvesting in June, she added.<\/p>\n Looking beyond this spring and into the winter of 2026-27, an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern is not helpful for the central U.S. Plains.<\/p>\n \u201cThat drought is not going to be solved in any short time in the near future,\u201d Andjelic said.<\/p>\n Fertilizer scarcity <\/p>\n Countries in the Persian Gulf region produce about 30 to 35 percent of global urea exports. With the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, Australia and other countries who rely on imports are coping with a shortage of nitrogen fertilizer.<\/p>\n
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