Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
Seeing \u201cworld class copper-silver potential,” National Bank Financial\u2019s Andrew Dusome initiated coverage of Lumina Metals Corp. (LMCU-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, calling flagship Nowa S\u00f3l in southwestern Poland \u201cone of the largest undeveloped copper and silver projects globally with significant value optionality.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Dusome was one of several equity analysts unveiling coverage after coming off research restriction following the Vancouver-based company\u2019s upsized $406.2-million initial public offering, which surpassed expectation. The Ross Beaty-backed miner began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on April 30.<\/p>\n \u201cThe 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) statements show that Lumina\u2019s flagship Nowa S\u03ccl Project and the Sulmierzyce Project are within the top global development projects not majority owned by majors both on a contained copper tonne basis and a contained silver ounce basis,\u201d he said. \u201cWe view the large silver resource as adding significant value and optionality to Lumina as a potential funding opportunity through the sale of a stream to fund Nowa S\u03ccl construction. <\/p>\n \u201cWorld-class infrastructure in a region with a long history of mining. The Nowa S\u03ccl Project benefits from its world-class location in flat-lying forested plains with close proximity to the necessary infrastructure for mining operations. Lumina has entered into a Letter of Intent (LOI) with KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. (KGHM), which operates two smelters in Poland with excess capacity, in order to collaborate on technical and commercial matters related to potential concentrate supply. We also see readthroughs from KGHM\u2019s long operating history (60+ years and 40-50 years of mine life in current reserves) in Poland and the continuity of their deposits as positive for the future exploration potential across Lumina\u2019s projects given that Nowa S\u03ccl is a deep extension of the Permian hosted mineralization mined by KGHM\u201d<\/p>\n In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Dusome argued future tax reform in Poland is \u201cthe key to unlocking economic upside.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cOne of the key ongoing catalysts is unlocking economic upside for Lumina\u2019s assets through tax reform,\u201d he said. \u201cThe largest Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) reform to date was introduced in 2025, entering into force on January 1, 2026, which included a lowering of the tax coefficient in the near term and the introduction of an investment relief mechanism tied to qualified capex over the longer term. We have run several tax sensitivity scenarios where we can see that small changes to the tax regime can have meaningful impacts on our NAV given the large initial capital investment required to develop the operation as well as the strong annual production in the initial years of the LOM.\u201d <\/p>\n Seeing a \u201cstrong track record of discovering, developing and generating value,\u201d he set a target of $20 per share, pointing to an estimated total return of 67.6 per cent. The average target on the Street is $19, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Lumina Group has more than 20 years of delivering value to shareholders through exploration, project development and M&A,\u201d said Mr. Dusome. \u201cGiven the large project scale and potential exploration upside combined with the Lumina Group\u2019s long record of M&A, we see Lumina Metals as well positioned to be an acquisition target as the company continues to derisk and advance its projects.\u201d<\/p>\n Elsewhere, other analysts initiated coverage include: <\/p>\n * RBC\u2019s Sam Crittenden with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $20 target.<\/p>\n \u201cLumina recently completed its IPO and is advancing the large-scale high-grade copper- silver Nowa S\u00f3l project in Poland with unique scale and grades, located in an established mining country. The project is longer dated and there is uncertainty about taxes; however, we see significant upside potential to both metals prices and potential tax reform. Poland is one of the world\u2019s leading copper producers, but high taxes have stalled investment which could change through tax changes and the development of Nowa S\u00f3l,\u201d said Mr. Crittenden. <\/p>\n * CIBC\u2019s Anita Soni with an \u201coutperformer\u201d rating and $18 target.<\/p>\n \u201cThe company currently trades at a 0.43 times P\/NAV, a slight discount to the developer peer average of 0.50 times on the CIBC price deck. We believe the discount relates to the stage of development for its cornerstone asset, Nowa S\u00f3l, which carries execution risk, and the current tax regime in Poland,\u201d said Ms. Soni.<\/p>\n \u201cOur price target is based on our calculated net asset value (NAV) estimate, to which we apply a P\/NAV target multiple of 0.60 times. This is below the developer peer average multiple of 0.70 times, reflecting various risks related to the execution of project milestones, permitting, and project economics such as taxation, production, grade and cost assumptions. We believe the stock could re-rate as it progresses through permitting and technical studies.\u201d<\/p>\n * BMO\u2019s Rene Cartier with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $17 target.<\/p>\n \u201cLumina Metals is a 100-per-cent owner of the Nowa S\u00f3l, Sulmierzyce, and Moz\u00f3w projects, which collectively represent one of the most significant copper-silver discoveries in Europe in recent decades,\u201d said Mr. Cartier.<\/p>\n In a client report released before the bell titled Through The Thorns, Toward The Stars, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Sairam Srinivas initiated coverage of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (AP.UN-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating, warning 2026 is likely to be a \u201ctransitory\u201d year as it \u201cworks to strengthen its long-term strategic position.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAllied is the largest publicly listed owner and operator of urban office properties located across key markets in Canada and stands to benefit from the \u201cFlight to Quality\u201d and \u201cSpill Over\u201d themes of office recovery,\u201c he explained. \u201dHaving said that, while macro fundamentals should slowly become a tailwind for Allied, we think the REIT, with its plate full of initiatives aimed towards strengthening the balance sheet (which will solidify its position in the long term), will take some time to deliver the benefit of an office market recovery to unit holders.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Srinivas said the Toronto-based REIT, like its peers, is poised to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n \u201cSix years post-pandemic, Canadian downtown office markets are reaching a positive inflection point, primarily driven by RTO mandates and a shrinking supply pipeline,\u201d he said. \u201cThis recovery is underscored by a \u2018Flight to Quality,\u2019 with demand concentrating in high-amenity, trophy assets. While we view this as a \u201clong game\u201d where vacancy compression is merely the first inning, natural leasing momentum and muted inventory should eventually drive a \u2018Spill Over\u2019 boosting NERs and operating margins across sub-asset classes. Outside of trophy assets, the timing of stabilization will be bifurcated by asset quality and management expertise \u2014a dynamic that favors Allied\u2019s platform. <\/p>\n \u201cThe Elephant in the Room Weighs: The last 12 months have been challenging for Allied, with the REIT\u2019s development exposure through Westbank significantly limiting the REIT\u2019s capital allocation decisions, resulting in the distribution cut announced in December last year and the equity issuance earlier this year. In our view, Allied\u2019s trajectory over the next 12 months will be influenced by a multitude of factors. While a sustained recovery in office leasing will be a tailwind, the uncertainty on execution of Allied\u2019s action plan as well as the challenges associated with that execution will be a headwind.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst set a $11 target for Allied units, exceeding the average on the Street of $9.94.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile a lot depends on Management\u2019s execution of the action plan for 2026 and 2027, we do believe that those actions combined with the difficult decisions made thus far will strengthen the REIT\u2019s financial and strategic position in the medium and long term,\u201d he concluded. \u201cIn the short term though, Allied will have to win back the trust of the market. Through this period, we expect the uncertainty on execution to weigh on the stock. <\/p>\n \u201cOur Value Add: Following Allied\u2019s 2026 outlook updates in Q1\/26, we have integrated our office recovery thesis with quantitative leasing research to model an occupancy trajectory for the REIT. This trajectory forms the foundation of our financial forecasts, which we benchmark against Allied\u2019s strategic goals. Our valuation methodology employs a weighted approach: while NAV provides a baseline (30-per-cent weight), our DCF model\u2014utilizing conservative medium-to-long-term assumptions\u2014suggests that successful execution of the REIT\u2019s action plan could unlock 40-per-cent-plus upside on the stock.”<\/p>\n While Stifel analyst Daryl Young saw Superior Plus Corp.\u2019s (SPB-T<\/a>) first-quarter release as \u201can encouraging update, with propane results better-than-feared and the delivery optimization challenges seemingly stabilized,\u201d he thinks \u201cthe key focus is the emerging data centre opportunity at Certarus and the need to pause the NCIB to fund capex.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTo date, five data centre contracts have been secured, including the previously announced large hyperscale project slated for mid-2027,\u201d he added. \u201cThere is a healthy amount of investor skepticism surrounding the capital investment required to pivot into data centres. We sympathize given the recent execution challenges and the perceived lack of barriers to entry to CNG distribution but we think the risk\/reward is compelling (even if this proves to be an AI\/data center bubble). Also, as a scaled early-mover, the initial years of this nascent opportunity could be very attractive akin to Certarus\u2019 first 10-years of O&G growth.\u201d<\/p>\n In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Young emphasized the \u201cupside\/downside economics\u201d on Superior Plus\u2019 new data centre contract \u201clook compelling.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cManagement has been intentionally cagey with details on the new $300-million hyperscaler revenue contract given the customer\/competitive sensitivities,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, they did share that the margins are higher and volatility is lower than the O&G business and that this opportunity will comfortably exceed the internal 15-per-cent return threshold. If we are reading the tea leaves correctly, we think that SPB will recoup the full $140-million of capex (and possibly a little extra) to purchase the 200 new MSUs during the 2.5-year minimum contract term. However, we assume it will require either a contract extension (which seems plausible), or a redeployment of the MSUs thereafter to achieve the 15-per-cent hurdle. In our view, this provides downside protection and makes for compelling risk\/reward dynamics, even if the data centre build out proves to be the bubble of all bubbles. Additionally, the risk of not entering this vertical and having it turn into something enormous far outweighs the opportunity cost of pausing share repurchases, in our view.\u201d<\/p>\n After updating his forecast to reflect the new CNG data centre contract, which expected to start in the middle of 2027, as well as \u201cminor\u201d revisions to his propane segment forecasts, Mr. Young increased his target for Superior Plus shares by $1 to $10, exceeding the $8.30 average, to reflect the increased estimates and a higher target multiple.<\/p>\n \u201cWe see potential to keep pushing our target valuation higher, but think this stock is firmly in the \u201cshow-me story\u201d camp (for both the propane turnaround and the new data center opportunity) given prior execution challenges and investor unease around continuously shifting strategic priorities (dating back to the prior management team).\u201c said the analyst, keeping his \u201dbuy” rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe Superior presents a compelling turnaround story for its core propane operations and also a unique first-mover story as it relates to growing its CNG distribution platform, a nascent industry. The propane operations provide a solid base of recurring, recession-resilient heating-load revenues (albeit highly seasonal and weather dependent), utility-like FCF generation, and diversified end-market exposure. Furthermore, Superior is paying a sustainable dividend while remaining nimble on capital allocation for growth initiatives and\/or share repurchases. In our view, the company\u2019s emphasis on driving growth in per share metrics and improving FCF conversion is attractive and positions it for valuation expansion.\u201d<\/p>\n When BRP Inc. (DOO-T<\/a>) reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results on May 28, TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison predicts the Street\u2019s attention will be focus on the recreational vehicle maker\u2019s exposure to U.S. S232 tariffs and the potential impact on its market share and financial outlook. <\/p>\n \u201cWe believe mitigating actions can limit its exposure over time, but will likely require USMCA\/S232 visibility to optimize strategy\/capital decisions,\u201d he said. \u201cThis will likely take time, in turn limiting near-term catalysts in our view.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Morrison is expecting the Valcourt, Que.-based company to enjoy a \u201cstrong\u201d year-over-year EBITDA and EPS growth performance in the quarter, however he emphasizes \u201cthis is unlikely the main event.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe forecast 16-per-cent revenue growth from ORV [off-road vehicle] utility market share gains (Defender), wholesale mirroring retail sales within Seasonal following the Q1\/F26 destock, and reduced promotional activity,\u201d he notes. \u201cVolume increments along with operating efficiencies should support attractive year-over-year margin expansion. Our EBITDA\/EPS forecast of $265-million\/$1.11 is in line with consensus of $269-million\/$1.12. <\/p>\n \u201cFollowing the Q1\/F27 results, it is an understatement to state forecasting will be challenging. The amended S232 framework now tariffs ORVs\/ snowmobiles at 25 per cent on the full vehicle imported to the U.S., that compares to the prior tariff being 50 per cent on just the metallic content. BRP estimates its gross tariff exposure to be $500-million on top of its prior tariff exposure of $90-million ($30-million aluminum). While mitigation actions can partially offset, our estimate of the per-vehicle tariff is excessive and places BRP at a relative disadvantage to several of its peers with more manufacturing content in the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Morrison says he does not \u201cview the status quo as sustainable long-term.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cPrior to making capital allocation decisions to address, we believe BRP\u2019s best plan of action for long-term value is likely a \u2018wait-and-see\u2019 approach,\u201d he said. \u201cIn our view, this means waiting for visibility upon USMCA negotiations\/ S232 viability. At such time, this will enable management to optimize its manufacturing footprint, sourcing\/product decisions, and mitigate S232 HTS codes.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst kept a \u201chold\u201d rating and $84 target for BRP shares. The average is $97.82.<\/p>\n \u201cThe magnitude of the S232 change is overly punitive to BRP, and while mitigation actions can partially offset the exposure, we believe it may require more meaningful operational change to maintain its industry leading competitive position. In our view, this will require improved visibility upon USMCA\/S232 that likely takes time, in order for management to make disciplined\/optimal capital allocation and strategic decisions to maximize long-term shareholder value. Unfortunately, this will likely suppress earnings growth right when it was positioned to accelerate,\u201d said Mr. Morrison.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, CIBC\u2019s Mark Petrie reduced his target to $90 from $118 with an \u201coutperformer\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have updated our estimates for BRP in the aftermath of amendments to Section 232 tariffs and the suspension of its F2027 guidance. Our F2027E EPS falls to $1.78 and F2028E EPS falls to $4.10. While near-term uncertainty holds us back from pounding the table, we ultimately believe tariff noise will be addressed and BRP\u2019s long-term brand value will prevail. We do not expect a quick resolution, and there is clear potential for more near-term volatility, but BRP is well capitalized with substantial liquidity as an important buffer,\u201d said Mr. Petrie.<\/p>\n In a separate client report, Mr. Morrison expects to see \u201cstrong\u201d revenue and earnings per share growth from Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T<\/a>) when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on June 16, touting \u201ckey driver momentum including brand heat, increasing AUR [average unit retail], store expansion\/up-tiering, and outsized eComm growth.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cBond yields may cause near-term share volatility, but we believe a premium valuation is warranted based upon its runway for EPS\/FCF growth, including meeting F2026 guidance and as its float nears index inclusion hurdles,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Mr. Morrison is projecting earnings per share for the quarter of 44 cents, a jump of almost 75 per cent year-over-year (from 25 cents) and falling in line with the Street\u2019s projection. That expectation is driven by 40-per-cent revenue growth and a 25-per-cent same-store sales growth increase.<\/p>\n He did warn his full-year outlook is governed by the \u201claw of large averages.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018We forecast revenue\/EPS growth to moderate year-over-year from outsized levels in F2025,” said the analyst. \u201cHowever, we believe key drivers remain intact supporting brand heat, its ability to sustain its pricing\/AUR strategy, and increase its eCommerce penetration. We forecast a 2-year SSSG stack of 40 per cent each quarter, annual eCommerce growth of ~100-150 basis points, and 12 net new store openings. This supports our F2026 revenue growth forecast of 24-per-cent growth. This includes its first five U.K. stores, with two opened in Q1\/F26 that our checks indicate were extremely well received. <\/p>\n \u201cWe forecast the Adjusted EBITDA margin to expand 200 basis points, almost equally from gross margin\/SG&A. Aside from volume benefits, the gross margin should benefit more so in H1\/ F26 from the lapping of elevated H1\/F25 tariffs and to a lesser extent in H2\/F26 from the optimization of its new U.S. DC. SG&A should benefit throughout the year from operating leverage.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Morrison maintained a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $105 target. The average on the Street is $108.63.<\/p>\n \u201cThe pressure on bond yield\/rates continue to raise concerns on the outlook for consumer spend,\u201d he said. \u201cWe believe GDI is on track to meet\/exceed its F2026 guidance, but acknowledge an extended Middle East conflict could prove a headwind. Recent share price pullbacks have proven an opportunity, and based upon our outlook, we believe this to be the case once more.\u201d<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * ATB Cormark\u2019s Jeff Fenwick bumped his target for Diversified Royalty Corp. (DIV-T<\/a>) to $5.50 from $5 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $4.70.<\/p>\n \u201cDIV\u2019s agreement to acquire the Mr. Lube & Tires business adds a meaningfully enhanced growth dynamic to the firm. Whereas historically DIV\u2019s royalty partners would generate low- to mid-single-digit organic growth, owning Mr. Lube outright onboards a highly successful platform where EBITDA growth has been solidly double-digit, from a combination of franchise growth and strong SSSG, along with the prospect of accretive M&A in a fragmented market,\u201d said Mr. Fenwick.<\/p>\n * Touting \u201cimproved positioning for LPG export upside,\u201d ATB Cormark\u2019s Nate Heywood moved his Keyera Corp. (KEY-T<\/a>) target to $55 from $54 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average is $58.91.<\/p>\n \u201cKEY sanctioned the 45mbbl\/d Alberta Corridor Export (ACE) Rail Terminal to efficiently load propane and butane from Alberta\u2019s local NGL hub in Fort Saskatchewan for export to foreign LPG markets via Canada\u2019s west coast. The project aligns with KEY\u2019s fractionation capacity additions and AltaGas\u2019s REEF expansion to meet growing LPG demand in Asia. This is a strategic addition to the backlog that should provide a platform for future growth and increased exposure to the very attractive LPG market in Asia. Given the expected accretion on the project, we have increased our price target,\u201d said Mr. Heywood.<\/p>\n * Seeing long-term \u201cstructural upside\u201d and highlighting the \u201cbreadth of incremental growth opportunities that are emerging as a result of the ongoing global supply shock\u201d for midstream companies in her coverage universe, Barclays\u2019 Theresa Chen raised her targets for Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T<\/a>) to $69 from $63 with an \u201coverweight\u201d rating and South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N<\/a>, SOBO-T<\/a>) to US$34 from $33 with an \u201cequal weight\u201d rating. The averages are $65.19 and US$35.80, respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions Seeing \u201cworld class copper-silver potential,” National Bank…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":684251,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-684250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}