{"id":689930,"date":"2026-05-24T04:38:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T04:38:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/689930\/"},"modified":"2026-05-24T04:38:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T04:38:19","slug":"stagflation-or-humiliation-greg-weldon-on-trumps-lose-lose-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/689930\/","title":{"rendered":"Stagflation or Humiliation: Greg Weldon on Trump’s “Lose-Lose” Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tMay 22, 2026 \u2013 Greg Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report<\/a>, offers a candid assessment of current global economic risks. He discusses the geopolitical stalemate between the U.S. and Iran, highlighting the influence of China and Russia and the potential for prolonged energy inflation. Weldon underscores weaknesses in the U.S. consumer and labor markets, the dangers of rising debt, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s limited options amid mounting stagflation risks. He warns of narrow stock market leadership, elevated margin debt, and the likelihood that central banks will opt for monetary reflation, urging investors to remain cautious in today\u2019s volatile environment. Have any feedback, questions, or breaking news about today’s show? Click here<\/a> to send our team a message.<\/p>\n

\tGreg Weldon Resources<\/p>\n

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\tWhat Greg Weldon says<\/p>\n

\t\tThe current U.S.-Iran standoff is a “lose-lose” scenario for the U.S.; both escalation and inaction hurt U.S. interests.<\/p>\n

\t\tChina and Russia are “pulling strings” behind Iran, aiming to drag out the conflict and hurt U.S. prestige and the economy.<\/p>\n

\t\tPersistent high oil prices threaten to prolong inflation and pressure the Fed, especially with U.S. oil inventories at five-year lows.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe U.S. consumer and labor market are both much weaker than official narratives suggest; consumer confidence and participation rates are low.<\/p>\n

\t\tRising debt levels (over 185% of GDP) in the U.S. leave little room for policy error; interest costs are now a major share of the deficit.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe Federal Reserve is boxed in: raising rates to fight inflation risks causing a recession, while keeping rates low fuels deficits and asset bubbles.<\/p>\n

\t\tMarket leadership is very narrow (semiconductors, tech, energy), while most sectors like retail, financials, and real estate are breaking down.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe risk of a sharp, sudden downturn is high due to record margin debt and overextended valuations; selling could cascade quickly.<\/p>\n

\t\tCentral banks will ultimately choose reflation (money printing) over a deflationary crash, leading to further currency debasement and asset inflation.<\/p>\n

\t\tBeing cautious, raising some cash, and considering protective strategies (like put options) is wise given the potential for stagflation and sudden market drops.<\/p>\n

\tTranscript<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, the stock market is still at record levels\u2014both for the S&P and the Nasdaq\u2014and even the Dow Jones Industrial is coming up. How long will this last? Let’s find out. Joining me on the program is Greg Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report. Greg, just before we went on air, we were talking about the no-win situation that the president and the U.S. find themselves in regarding the war. If we bomb Iran, oil prices skyrocket and shut things down, but if we walk away, we lose prestige and Iran wins. Let\u2019s begin there: what are the possibilities in either direction? What does this mean for the markets and investments?<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Yeah, I think you nailed it. I\u2019ve been saying this myself for a while: it\u2019s a lose-lose at this point. I think Donald Trump painted himself into a corner with his rhetoric, threats, and bullying. Now he can\u2019t get out without getting some paint on himself. If he had just kept quiet and done his job, things might have gone smoother. But this back and forth\u2014one day threatening to bomb, the next day wanting a deal\u2014just drags things out.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn my recent Global Macro Strategy report, I actually laid out his comments day by day. The approach shifts 180 degrees repeatedly, from threats to near-agreements. What Iran, China, and Russia want is to prolong this as long as possible. The stalemate scenario is perfect for them, which is why they scurry back to the negotiating table whenever a big threat arises, but then they aren\u2019t realistic about their demands\u2014reparations, tolls in the Strait, enrichment rights, etc.<\/p>\n

\n\tChina and Russia are pulling Iran\u2019s puppet strings. The U.S. is being outplayed, and Trump is left to bluff, then fold. That\u2019s not a winning poker or war strategy. If Trump launches a major attack, energy prices surge and inflation gets even worse. Or he continues the cat-and-mouse game, with no real victory possible. He wants an exit, but he\u2019s made it hard to find one.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis entire situation is just being prolonged, possibly until the 250th birthday celebration, to China\u2019s delight. Xi has played this well. As a proud American, it pains me to say it, but China has outplayed Trump every step. Trump is forced to play the short game, given U.S. politics, whereas Xi can play the long game. Dragging this out until the midterms, coupled with high gasoline prices, suppresses consumer spending and weakens the economy. The official narrative about the consumer and labor market being strong is fraudulent\u2014the data shows otherwise. The goal is to weaken Trump going into the midterms by keeping the consumer and economy under pressure.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
And if, say, Republicans lose both Houses in the elections, we already know what\u2019s going to happen in the next two years: impeachment trials and chaos.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Yeah, normally gridlock can be positive because it prevents drastic changes, but in this case, gridlock would derail Trump\u2019s agenda and make it even harder for the country to get back on track after the damage from Joe Biden\u2019s years and the millions of illegal immigrants in the country. High taxes, spending, and household debt\u2014$56 trillion, or 185% of GDP\u2014are huge issues. Just look at what\u2019s happened to Japan: 240% of GDP in public debt, and their government had to intervene in the bond market. If we\u2019re not careful, we could face the same situation here.<\/p>\n

\n\tI think we\u2019ll avoid an immediate crisis, but the war, energy prices, and consumer distress all combine to create a tough outlook for Trump and the economy as well as the markets. The dollar\u2019s rising, bond yields are spiking, and there\u2019s talk of the Fed hiking rates instead of cutting, which is already dramatically tightening monetary conditions. Asset prices are at risk\u2014gold is wobbling, stocks have had a few wobbles, recovered somewhat, especially in Europe; and stagflation is a major factor. The focus on the war masks some of these deeper, more troubling issues for the stock market and assets in general.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Let\u2019s talk about oil prices. Suppose oil keeps rising, and say Trump attacks and oil jumps to $140 or $150. What can the Fed do? Hiking rates won\u2019t make more barrels of oil appear\u2014they can just kill the economy.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
That\u2019s exactly the problem. There are two ways to look at this. First, we don\u2019t even need higher oil prices\u2014just holding at current levels is enough, because the back end of the futures strip is lower. As time passes, those deferred contracts have to rise to match current prices. Come July, as contracts expire, you\u2019ll see the back end move up.<\/p>\n

\n\tMeanwhile, inventories are drawing down significantly, despite SPR releases. U.S. oil inventories are below their five-year low. \u201cEnergy independence\u201d only applies if you count natural gas. We\u2019re producing record crude\u2014over 13.5 million barrels a day\u2014but refinery throughput is above 16 million. We\u2019re not producing enough crude to meet domestic demand, let alone export, and we\u2019ve only just become a net exporter recently. This stresses the U.S. balance sheet\u2014many thought we were insulated, but we\u2019re not. If oil just stays at these levels, the \u201cbase effect\u201d alone means year-over-year CPI inflation stays high, even without a further price spike. If there\u2019s an attack and oil jumps higher, inflation actually accelerates. That\u2019s a real pickle for the Fed, and honestly, I wouldn\u2019t want Powell\u2019s job right now.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
I spoke to an executive at a major oil company yesterday, and he said we\u2019re close to scraping the bottom of the barrel. We\u2019ve drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the IEA releases too, but that\u2019s being drained\u2014so even if there were a deal today, we\u2019re months away from relief. And that\u2019s not counting wells that have been idled.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Exactly\u2014and you\u2019re giving Trump\u2019s opposition all the ammunition they need to criticize his strategies. This war could have been over, and I don\u2019t understand why it wasn\u2019t. Trying to re-escalate now is just a bluff, and everyone knows it. Iran keeps scurrying to the negotiating table when threatened, but that\u2019s all bluff from Trump, who keeps having to fold because he can\u2019t actually deliver on threats. As I mentioned off-air, he\u2019s painted himself into a corner with his mouth and can\u2019t get out without damage.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
It\u2019s amazing\u2014just today Bloomberg reported Iran is talking to Oman about charging fees to exit. They weren\u2019t charging before, but now they\u2019ll come out a winner.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
And now NATO is sending ships too\u2014which is interesting given how bad Europe\u2019s recent data has been. Europe is experiencing significant stagflation. The ECB is revising its forecasts downward, with more revision to come. The Bundesbank’s latest report was alarming, and the ECB\u2019s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows a credit crunch\u2014credit demand dropping, standards tightening, and monetary conditions tightening globally. If we get another bout of inflation, it could be the dagger in the back of the U.S. consumer, further slowing demand. With public and household debt at 185% of GDP, you need final demand growth to service that debt or you get a Japan-style bond market problem here. The Fed will eventually have to accept higher inflation to protect growth\u2014maybe more QE or even rate cuts despite rising inflation.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe labor market isn\u2019t solid either. The participation rate outside of the pandemic is the lowest since the 1970s. In the last 12 months, 2.4 million people dropped out of the labor force; only 560,000 jobs were created. When new job creation falls below one million over 12 months, recession follows, and we’re there now. Factoring in these dropouts, real unemployment could be 6.1%. The part-time for economic reasons has spiked, and U-6 unemployment is above 8%. The headlines are about more bank layoffs and Meta laying off more people. The Fed’s own projections assume no AI impact on unemployment, which is ludicrous\u2014and the labor market will face real pain, likely rising unemployment into the midterms.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Let\u2019s talk about the deficit. The Trump administration just reported a $2.1 trillion deficit\u20146.2% of GDP\u2014the highest in a long time. If interest rates stay elevated, that could add another $200 billion in interest costs annually. How long until the Fed has to cut because we can\u2019t afford recession with this debt?<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
It\u2019s funny\u2014Powell is painting himself into a corner by talking about reducing the balance sheet, but QT isn\u2019t possible. It’s like the BOJ saying a decade ago they’d shrink their balance sheet\u2014economic disaster would follow. A 6% deficit-to-GDP ratio is extremely high, especially when this isn\u2019t a crisis period by official metrics. The consumer isn\u2019t healthy, the labor market isn\u2019t solid, and growth is weak. Some indicators are already at crisis levels. Retail sales growth is being driven largely by gasoline stations\u201447% of the dollar gain lately, 65% in March, by far the highest ever. Meanwhile, vehicle sales are falling, and eating\/drinking establishments\u2019 sales growth is near pandemic lows\u2014historically a recession signal.<\/p>\n

\n\tRaising rates now would exacerbate a recession that’s already on its way\u2014this is hardcore stagflation. The government might be pushed into blowing out the deficit even further and implementing yield curve control or similar\u2014like Japan\u2014to stabilize the bond market, but that only drives inflation higher and perpetuates today\u2019s stagflation conundrum.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
We just touched 4.67% on the 10-year, and the 30-year was at 5.18%. With almost $40 trillion of debt, we can’t afford rates like that.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Exactly\u2014the interest cost on the debt is already over $1 trillion annually. Half the deficit is just interest costs, and that will only get worse if rates rise. This is a one-way street. I don\u2019t want to sound like a doomsayer, but the risks are obvious. Stocks and even gold and industrial metals are breaking down due to tightening monetary conditions. The Fed hiking rates now would only worsen this asset deflation, which is already being priced in. It\u2019s fascinating that the mainstream held on to rate-cut narratives until the last minute, but now, even futures markets are pricing in hikes.<\/p>\n

\n\tAt the end of the day, taxpayers and consumers will pay the most.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Before the fall elections, I suspect the Fed will have to do something because this can\u2019t continue. And even if oil prices just stay flat, the idea that things go back to $70 a barrel and we\u2019ll pay $3 at the pump seems unlikely.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Not as quickly as it needs to. The base effect carries through October\u2014so if prices just stay here, we\u2019re looking at around a 40% year-over-year increase. The dollar is also breaking out to the upside, and if the dollar index gets above 104.64, that\u2019s a major breakout. The dollar has shifted from depreciating over the past year to now being flat\u2014and if it breaks out further, that tightens monetary conditions even more.<\/p>\n

\n\tAverage weekly earnings on a real basis are now flat. Even high earners\u2019 confidence is falling, and consumer confidence is at historic lows\u2014worse than during previous crises like the Carter years. That doesn\u2019t bode well for spending, which we need to service debt. When facing a deflationary abyss, every central banker will always choose reflation\u2014it\u2019s less painful. We can’t have the \u2018great reset\u2019 yet\u2014it would be too painful. At some point, the dollar card will be played; that’s when precious metals will have a huge turnaround, although they may see significant downside first, creating a buying opportunity later this year.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Let\u2019s talk about the markets\u2014we’ve got narrow leadership again: the Magnificent Seven, the \u201cMag 10\u201d stocks, semiconductors. But most stocks are declining, as you see in unweighted indexes. When one sector drives the whole market, what does that tell you, Greg?<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
It tells me there\u2019s a lack of real leadership\u2014especially when the dominant sector isn\u2019t a large enough part of the economy. The stock market isn\u2019t always aligned with the economy, but there is always some correlation, and the consumer is still 71% of the economy.<\/p>\n

\n\tIndustrial production numbers recently show things like computer equipment are growing fast, but it\u2019s only 0.21% of industrial output. The dominance by semiconductors, information tech, and energy tells you something. Recently, infotech started rolling over versus energy, and data center build-outs are facing pushback, water shortages, and so on. Water is also going to be a big driver for agricultural inflation.<\/p>\n

\n\tLooking at sector breakdowns, retail (XRT), consumer discretionary (XLY), online retail (PNQI), financials (XLF), real estate, health care, and homebuilders\u2014all are breaking down against the S&P. Lay this over the index, and you have 1,000 to 1,500 downside points at risk. When AI and semis finally lose steam, you\u2019ll be left with a coyote-off-the-cliff market\u2014like in the cartoons, running in mid-air and then realizing you\u2019re about to fall.<\/p>\n

\n\tKorea\u2019s market is even more extreme, with two stocks responsible for 70% of gains. It isn\u2019t quite as bad here, but it\u2019s troubling\u2014almost all sectors except semis, infotech, and energy are breaking down. We\u2019ve seen this before: 1987, 1990, 1998, 2000, and 2007-08. Narrow leadership is always a warning sign. In my view, the risk\/reward in stocks just isn\u2019t there.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
I see a monetary reflation coming before fall for two reasons: a $2.1 trillion deficit in a growing economy\u2014if we get a recession, that could go to $3 or $4 trillion. And we can\u2019t afford a bear market in stocks\u2014California relies on capital gains and options for a quarter of its revenue, and at the federal level, it\u2019s huge too.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
That\u2019s right\u2014and it\u2019s the only thing holding up the consumer at the high end. That resilience is fading too, and a hit to the stock market would really lock down consumer spending quickly. A credit crunch would make things much worse. It really is like walking through a minefield blindfolded\u2014too much risk, not enough reward.<\/p>\n

\n\tThat\u2019s also true for crypto and most metals. Right now, it\u2019s a strong-dollar, tightening conditions story. Eventually, it\u2019ll flip, and that\u2019ll be the trade of the decade. Think about what happened when Silicon Valley Bank failed\u2014the Fed printed hundreds of billions in weeks. They\u2019ll do it again if needed. Central bankers always choose reflation over deflation. The U.S. now is in the same position as Venezuela or Argentina decades ago: good income, big upper class, then deficits and currency debasement. That perpetually debased currency will ultimately drive stocks higher long term, but not enough to keep pace with the loss in purchasing power.<\/p>\n

\n\tSo, passive investing in stocks won\u2019t keep up with currency debasement. Investors need strategies that can go long and short, across assets globally. Every step, the math only gets worse: $56 trillion in debt now, $36 trillion during the pandemic, and each time it takes more new money to get the same effect. Gold-adjusted, the dollar has lost 97% since 1985, and it can lose another 97%. We\u2019ve seen it happen in country after country.<\/p>\n

\n\tJust look at the Indian rupee\u2014testing 100 rupees against the dollar. They’re threatening intervention and restricting gold imports. Gold in rupees is rolling over, which is a red flag for gold bugs. I’d be cautious with gold here as well.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Sounds like it’s time to be cautious, maybe raise some cash ahead of what’s coming. What concerns me is that if there is a downturn, it could be sudden and sharp, given record margin debt. When you get margin calls, selling begets selling.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Technically, this market is the most overextended I’ve ever seen\u2014biggest disconnect from the economy and most momentum-driven, with the weakest leadership. Is this something you want to put new money into? Not right now. You never want to be a \u201cgo to cash\u201d person entirely, but if you’re involved in the market and it’s hard to move in and out, I wouldn’t recommend selling everything, but at least consider financial protection. Volatility isn\u2019t so high that put options might not be a bad idea for some people. Because I think what\u2019s next is big asset price deflation, which will force central banks to do what we know they will: accept higher inflation to protect final demand.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
All right, we’ll end on that happy note and hope things get a little better.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
I\u2019m very positive about life, Jim. This is when you have to separate yourself from the craziness. Doing what we do is tough to begin with\u2014one day you hear we\u2019re close to a negotiation, the next day it\u2019s another attack. You can\u2019t trade on these ridiculous headlines. I\u2019m not anti-Trump\u2014I like a lot of his policies\u2014but his mouth is his worst enemy. If he could just keep quiet and do the job, we wouldn\u2019t be here. I wrote a piece recently called “Me and My Big Mouth,” about Trump flip-flopping and making all-in bluffs that end up folding. When Iran is outplaying us, it\u2019s a sign of how weak the U.S. position has become. It’s unfortunate and it pains me to say it, but it\u2019s the truth.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Greg, as we close, tell our listeners about Global Macro Strategy.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
Sure\u2014the point is: get outside, do something fun, rate your will to live, because sitting in your office all day can be rough right now. The Global Macro Strategy report covers global stocks, currencies, bonds, energy, metals, and commodities. Shoot me an email\u2014gregweldon[at]weldononline[dot]com\u2014for a free trial, something we don\u2019t usually do.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf you\u2019re an accredited investor, I am a Series 3 licensed commodity trading advisor. We offer individual managed accounts\u2014fully transparent, no lockups, daily broker reports. We\u2019re trying to help people get the returns needed to stay ahead of the debasement of the dollar\u2019s purchasing power. Also, check out our podcast, “Money Markets and New Age Investing,\u201d hosted by Buzzsprout. Find me on Twitter @WeldonLive and the podcast at Money Podcast.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
All right, Greg, I’m going to go have a drink. As always, thanks for coming on the show. We’ll talk to you again.<\/p>\n

\n\tGreg Weldon:
My pleasure, Jim. You and Chris do a great job\u2014kudos to you both.<\/p>\n

\n\tTo learn more about Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management, give us a call at (888) 486-3939<\/a> or click here<\/a> to contact us.<\/p>\n

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\n\tAdvisory services offered through Financial Sense\u00ae Advisors, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Financial Sense\u00ae Securities, Inc., Member FINRA\/SIPC. DBA Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"May 22, 2026 \u2013 Greg Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, offers a candid assessment of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":689931,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":["post-689930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/689930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=689930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/689930\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/689931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=689930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=689930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=689930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}