{"id":690610,"date":"2026-05-24T12:53:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T12:53:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/690610\/"},"modified":"2026-05-24T12:53:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T12:53:30","slug":"libman-only-certainty-in-quebec-election-is-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/690610\/","title":{"rendered":"Libman: Only certainty in Quebec election is uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Whoever coined the term \u201csix months is an eternity in politics\u201d knew what they were talking about. Again this week we see how political landscapes can undergo tectonic shifts.<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes a fresh face is needed to resuscitate the fortunes of a party in distress. Voters often tire of their government during its second term. It seems almost impossible for any administration these days to be perceived as making change for the better. Disenchantment ultimately focuses heavily on the leader who wears the badge of their administration\u2019s failures.<\/p>\n<p>If that leader leaves and a credible alternative emerges, as did Mark Carney for the federal Liberals, replacing an unpopular Justin Trudeau, voters may seemingly forgive, forget and give a second chance. When the Trudeau Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by some 20 points, no one thought it possible that the party would win the election months later.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In this province, most pundits had been administering last rites to the Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec led by Fran\u00e7ois Legault. Almost eight years in power with several failed projects and mismanagement, the CAQ had dropped near the bottom of the polling barrel and left for dead. Lo and behold, Christine Fr\u00e9chette replaces Legault and, as a L\u00e9ger <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/quebec-voting-intentions-a-three-way-race-takes-shape-ahead-of-2026\/\">poll showed this week<\/a>, they\u2019ve surged back into the race heading toward the October election.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0523-oped-col-libman.jpg\" alt=\"A collage of PQ Leaders Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, CAQ Leader Christine Fr\u00e9chette and Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard.\" class=\"wp-image-100198933\"  \/>PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, CAQ Leader Christine Fr\u00e9chette and Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard. Montreal Gazette illustration. Montreal Gazette illustration<\/p>\n<p>In the last federal campaign, despite support for the Conservatives as the alternative, there was discomfort among many voters with their leader, Pierre Poilievre. This eased the path for Carney.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, despite polls showing the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois as the favoured alternative, many voters remain wary of its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, with his commitment to hold a sovereignty referendum that most Quebecers don\u2019t want. This has helped open the door for Fr\u00e9chette, despite having the same team as her predecessor \u2014 and for which voters held considerable disdain.<\/p>\n<p>The recent Fr\u00e9chette momentum has stalled the Liberals, who can count on a chunk of seats in the Montreal area supported by non-francophones \u2014 but cannot win without increasing their share of the francophone vote. On that metric, they trail the PQ by 20 points and the CAQ by nine.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The L\u00e9ger poll shows that among francophones, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard also lags far behind PSPP and Fr\u00e9chette in who would make the best premier. He, and the Liberal brand, are perceived as soft on protecting the French language. The question remains: How can he reverse that unjustified perception without striking a nationalist posture, which risks upsetting core support among anglophone voters?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He can start by exploiting one of the aces up his sleeve, a name that didn\u2019t get much attention as news emerged of the star francophone candidates that Milliard has been lining up to run for the Liberals \u2014 heavyweights in the fields of education, health care, the economy and regional development. <\/p>\n<p>The name that flew under the radar is Olivier Bertin-Mahieux, the director general of the Fondation Paul G\u00e9rin-Lajoie, well known for its major educational project \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/fondationpgl.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Document-presentation-2019-_-ANG-FINAL-WEB.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">La Dict\u00e9e P.G.L.<\/a> \u2014 set up in 1991 as an international competition and educational project aimed at improving young people\u2019s proficiency in the French language in a fun way, while raising their awareness of global issues.\u00a0Milliard says Bertin-Mahieux will anchor his \u201cFrench language team,\u201d which could prove to be a crucial play.  <\/p>\n<p>Milliard stumbled recently on the language file when confronted with hot-button issues like Bill 96 and the notwithstanding clause. But here\u2019s a chance to shift the focus on protecting French with tangible, positive initiatives related to education.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s time to start showcasing the diversity, expertise and promise of his fresh team versus the tired bunch that still prevails at the CAQ.<\/p>\n<p>In six months, we will have a new government. Before then there will be debates, gaffes and evolving geopolitical circumstances that can change the course of the race. For now, the only certainty is we can\u2019t be certain about anything.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/montrealgazette.com\/author\/robert-libman-special-to-montreal-gazette\/\" class=\"postmedia-author-card__image-link\" rel=\"author image nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"96\" height=\"96\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/9999-col-libman_97252049.jpg\" class=\"avatar avatar-96 photo wp-post-image\" alt=\"Profile image of Robert Libman\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n\t\t\t\t\tRobert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of C\u00f4te-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee.\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\tEditor\u2019s Picks\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Whoever coined the term \u201csix months is an eternity in politics\u201d knew what they were talking about. Again&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":690611,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[49,48,218342,295,230663,120789,197017,66,1062],"class_list":["post-690610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-coalition-avenir-quebec-caq","tag-environment","tag-parti-quebecois-pq","tag-quebec-elections","tag-quebec-liberal-party","tag-science","tag-video"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=690610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/690611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=690610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=690610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=690610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}