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<\/p>\nThe federal government is facing increased pressure to state whether it knows how some of its recent policy changes will affect Canada\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n
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Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin was peppered with questions on the issue at a parliamentary committee hearing on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois MP Patrick Bonin pressed Dabrusin on whether the government had modelling to show how it plans to lower emissions, considering the amount of climate policy rollbacks over the past year.<\/p>\n
\u201cDo you have an expert, or anyone who can show us that you\u2019re advancing on climate change and not backtracking like (other experts) say. Do you have figures to show that?\u201d Bonin said, in French.<\/p>\n
Dabrusin pointed to the government\u2019s methane regulations, published in December, as an example of a measure the government is taking to lower Canada\u2019s emissions.<\/p>\n
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When Bonin pressed her on the entirety of the government\u2019s policy changes, Dabrusin pointed to the publication of the national inventory report in April \u2014 although the figures in that report are from 2024 and precede the Carney government and its policy changes.<\/p>\n
Later in the hearing, Environment Canada Deputy Minister Mollie Johnson said that while the department provides analysis and advice, it has \u201csome work to do\u201d on crunching the numbers to determine the impact on Canada\u2019s emissions.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo that\u2019s what we\u2019re working on right now, in order to take what has been happening, and the decisions that have been made over the past period of time, and putting that together so that we can come forward and deliver a comprehensive modelling,\u201d Johnson told the committee.<\/p>\n
A senior government official, speaking to The Canadian Press on background because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said part of the trouble with doing modelling before the government announces new measures \u2014 and sometimes even after \u2014 is that the announcements often lack details.<\/p>\n
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When it unveiled its electricity strategy earlier this month, the government announced its intention to introduce energy-saving retrofits for up to one million households. But the promise lacked specifics, making it impossible for Environment Canada to plug that measure into its models.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney has for months been accused of backsliding on Canada\u2019s climate initiatives. Former Liberal environment minister Steven Guilbeault announced his plans to resign as an MP earlier this week, citing the government\u2019s new direction on climate.<\/p>\n
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Carney repealed the consumer carbon price on his first day in office. Since then, his government has repealed the electric vehicles sales mandate, opened the door to ending the emissions cap on oil and gas producers, scrapped anti-greenwashing legislation, expanded fossil fuel subsidies and made the federal industrial carbon price backstop more lenient.<\/p>\n
All of those changes have been hailed by industry stakeholders. The government also has signalled it intends to introduce other measures to help lower emissions \u2014 like a national electricity strategy, despite the fact that it will deploy natural gas plants \u2014 and the promise to offer green retrofits for one million households.<\/p>\n
The government still has not produced modelling to show how those changes would affect Canada\u2019s emissions.<\/p>\n
The government did publish a progress report in December, which is required under the government\u2019s Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. It showed Canada\u2019s best-case scenario model had the country achieving only a 28 per cent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels in 2030.<\/p>\n
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Under the Paris climate agreement, Canada committed to reducing its emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from the 2005 level by 2030. Carney said earlier this month Canada is still committed to that target but hasn\u2019t said how it can achieve it.<\/p>\n
But the best-case scenario model assumed industrial carbon pricing would reach $170 a tonne by 2030. Earlier this month, the Carney government signed an agreement with Alberta to set the headline price at $115 by 2030 \u2014 a timeline which will also apply across all provinces and territories.<\/p>\n
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A study in February by the Canadian Climate Institute suggested Canada is not on track to meet any of its climate targets \u2014 the 2026 interim emissions reduction target, the 2030 Paris Agreement commitment and the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s no evidence that we\u2019ve been presented with \u2026 with the scale of gutting of climate ambition \u2026 that there\u2019s any pathway to meet near-term or long-term emission reduction commitments,\u201d said Tim Gray, the executive director of Environmental Defence.<\/p>\n
He said Dabrusin\u2019s testimony at Thursday\u2019s committee hearing amounted to her defending \u201cthe indefensible.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it\u2019s a reasonable thing for the public to ask for evidence of that being the case, if the government is going to insist upon saying that, in fact, we have it wrong,\u201d he said. \u201cYou know, obviously we\u2019re open to that, but there\u2019s been no evidence presented about why gutting all of this legislation would not have a negative impact in the way that we\u2019re describing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said the idea behind the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act \u2014 which her organization helped to push forward \u2014 was to get federal departments to conduct ongoing accounting to help create policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe (environment) minister and the prime minister keep saying that we\u2019re still committed to those targets, but meanwhile their actions and their policy decisions are doing the exact contrary,\u201d Brouillette said.<\/p>\n
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\u201cI think this also speaks to the highly centralized way in which decision-making is happening right now. Sometimes, we\u2019re hearing (decisions are being made) without involvement of key departments. So that also makes it harder.\u201d<\/p>\n
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