FUNDAMENTAL
\nOVERVIEW<\/p>\n
Gold rallied strongly in the final part of last week on expectations of an
\nimminent US-Iran deal. The catalyst that started the rally was an Axios report
\non Thursday saying that US and Iran had reached a 60-day memorandum of
\nunderstanding (MoU) and the agreement required final approval from Trump. We
\ngot another impulse higher on Friday after Trump announced on Truth Social the
\nlift of the US naval blockade and a “final determination” on a
\nbroader agreement to follow shortly in the White House Situation Room. <\/p>\n
Gold started to give the gains back after the New York Times reported that
\nTrump did not reach a decision on any new deal with Iran in the Situation Room
\nas several important issues remained unresolved and continue to prevent a final
\nsettlement. After that, we got many other reports indicating that an agreement
\nmight not be as close as it seemed last week. Moreover, the US struck again
\nIranian military sites and the Iran responded with an attack on a US base in
\nKuwait. The ceasefire is still supposedly intact. <\/p>\n
Despite the expectations for an imminent deal and the reopening of the
\nStrait of Hormuz, we still haven\u2019t got anything official. There\u2019s just been
\nlots of noise. The main risk for gold remains the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
More and more policymakers are now pushing for dropping the easing bias, so
\nwe can expect that to happen at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Moreover, if nothing
\nchanges on the Strait of Hormuz side before then, we might get a hawkish
\nsurprise as inflation continues to run hot and the US data remains resilient. <\/p>\n
In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likely
\nsupport gold on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets. But if the
\nStrait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, the risk of the
\nFed being forced to hike anyway increases, and that\u2019s going to keep weighing on
\ngold.<\/p>\n
GOLD TECHNICAL
\nANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
Gold – daily<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, we can
\nsee that gold bounced from the new two-month lows and erased all last week\u2019s
\nlosses. The price is now trading again right in the middle of the two key
\ntrendlines, so there\u2019s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need to
\nzoom in to see some more details.<\/p>\n
GOLD
\nTECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
Gold – 4 hour<\/p>\n
On the 4 hour chart, we can
\nsee the price broke above the downward trendline and extended the rally into
\nthe key resistance zone around the 4,585 level before pulling back. The price
\nis now retesting the broken trendline. We can expect the buyers to step in
\naround these levels with a defined risk below the 4,460 level to target a break
\nabove the 4,585 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
\nthe price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new monthly lows.<\/p>\n
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\nHOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
Gold – 1 hour<\/p>\n
On the 1 hour chart, we can UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n
\nsee more clearly the retest of the trendline with the swing low around the
\n4,488 level acting as support. Again, this is where we can expect the buyers to
\nstep in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new
\nhighs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase
\nthe bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n