{"id":716896,"date":"2026-06-05T13:53:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T13:53:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/716896\/"},"modified":"2026-06-05T13:53:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T13:53:16","slug":"already-low-alberta-separatism-support-drops-sharply-from-early-2026-ipsos-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/716896\/","title":{"rendered":"Already-low Alberta separatism support drops sharply from early 2026: Ipsos poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Support for Alberta separatism<\/a> has declined since the beginning of 2026, according to a new Ipsos<\/a> poll conducted for Global News.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The survey conducted between May 28 to June 1 found 19 per cent of Albertans said they would vote this fall to hold a separate binding separation referendum, while 72 per cent would check off the box to remain in Canada, and the remainder are undecided, would not vote or did not answer.<\/p>\n

While the new polling data suggests the separatist momentum isn\u2019t powerful enough to move past the initial referendum in October, Ispos asked Albertans what their intentions would be if that binding referendum were to somehow still happen.<\/p>\n

If a binding referendum is held, the Ipsos poll suggests 18 per cent of Albertans would vote to leave Canada, compared with 72 per cent who would vote to stay. Nine per cent were undecided or did not respond.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

That 18 per cent support marks a 10-point drop from January, when 28 per cent of Albertans said they backed separation.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2:47
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRoad to the Referendum: Concerns, uncertainty on how Alberta independence could impact economy\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

At that time, the Stay Free Alberta separatist group was still gathering signatures but in the months since then, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has opted to add a question about separatism to the referendum she announced in February, with the questions at the time focusing on immigration and the Constitution.<\/p>\n

The additional question will be: \u201cShould Alberta remain a province of Canada \u2014 or \u2014 should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?\u201d<\/p>\n

Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada and global CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs, said the new data from the past week suggests support for Alberta separation is weakening as the idea becomes more tangible.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems like the more that people contemplate this being real \u2014 the act of voting \u2014 we see the support for separatism softening,\u201d he said in an interview with Global News about the findings.<\/p>\n

Stay voters more firmly committed than those favouring separation<\/p>\n

The data also suggests those opposed to separation are more firmly committed to their position.<\/p>\n

Among respondents who would vote to stay in Canada, 90 per cent described their choice as \u201cdefinite\u201d compared with 70 per cent of those who would vote to separate.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat it shows is that people who really want Alberta to stay in Canada are really strongly motivated to vote for that,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a certain level of strength we see for the separatist vote but it\u2019s so much smaller that they\u2019re going to have to turn out every one of the people who say they\u2019re certain to vote \u2014 and probably times three more \u2014 in order to actually be competitive in this race.\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tStay Free Alberta separatism supporters in Edmonton, Alta. on Monday, May 4, 2026.\t\t\t\t <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tGlobal News\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Stay Free Alberta, the separatist group driving the push to leave Canada,<\/a> says it gathered just over 300,000 signatures on its petition calling for an independence referendum, which if verified represents around six per cent of Alberta\u2019s population of five million people.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

The process to verify the signatures is currently on hold due to the petition being quashed by a judge last month<\/a> \u2014 something the Alberta government says it intends to appeal but also, the catalyst for Smith adding the 10th question<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3:56
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDanielle Smith says province to appeal Alberta judge\u2019s ruling against separation petition\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\tPrevious Video<\/p>\n

\t\tNext Video<\/p>\n

Support for both holding a referendum and for separation itself is lowest in Calgary, where 14 per cent of respondents support moving ahead with a referendum \u2014 compared with 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of Alberta.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\"Get<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tGet daily National news<\/p>\n

Get daily Canada news delivered to your inbox so you’ll never miss the day’s top stories.<\/p>\n

Similarly, 12 per cent of Calgary respondents say they would vote to separate, compared with 16 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of the province.<\/p>\n

Support varies by political affiliation.<\/p>\n

Among right-leaning United Conservative Party supporters, 50 per cent favour remaining in Canada compared with 40 per cent who support holding a referendum and 41 per cent who would vote to separate.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

Bricker said that split is also reflected in Danielle Smith\u2019s own political circle.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile there\u2019s a significant level of support for separatism, there\u2019s also a significant amount of support for staying in Canada.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo even (in) the UCP caucus, there\u2019s certain amount of division.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among NDP supporters, 92 per cent favour staying in Canada compared with five per cent who support holding a referendum, while 93 per cent would vote to stay versus four per cent who would vote to separate.<\/p>\n

Voters undecided on which party to support also lean strongly toward remaining in Canada, with 74 per cent supporting the stay option compared with nine per cent backing a referendum, and 76 per cent saying they would vote to stay versus four per cent to separate.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3:03
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRoad to the referendum: The events that put Alberta separatism on the ballot\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

By age, support for holding a referendum is higher among those under 55 years old (22 per cent) compared with 14 per cent among those 55+.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

Support for separation itself is highest among those under 35, at 22 per cent, followed by 19 per cent among those aged 35 to 54, and 13 per cent among those 55 and older.<\/p>\n

The poll suggests motivations among those supporting separation have shifted:\u00a0 61 per cent say their position is driven mainly by a belief Alberta\u2019s future would be better outside Canada, while 39 per cent cite historical mistreatment within Canada.<\/p>\n

This marks a reversal from January, when 55 per cent pointed to historical grievances and 39 per cent to future prospects.<\/p>\n

Ipsos said the 10-point drop in support for separation since January may be, at least partly, due to those concerned about historic mistreatment rethinking whether this is adequate cause to separate.<\/p>\n

Most Canadians want Alberta to remain, with weaker support in Quebec<\/p>\n

Outside Alberta, support for provincial separation remains low overall but varies by region: 11 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta say they would support their own province separating if a referendum were held today, including 30 per cent in Quebec and 11 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.\u00a0Support is minimal in British Columbia at two per cent, Ontario at three per cent and Atlantic Canada at three per cent.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tMore on Politics
\n\t\t\tMore videos\n\t\t<\/p>\n

Most Canadians also want Alberta to remain in the country: 80 per cent say Alberta should stay in Canada, including 63 per cent in Quebec.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

\u201cThe numbers are pretty consistent \u2014 what we saw in the last referendum in 1995 for Quebec staying in Canada,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n

\u201cCanadians definitely feel Canada is better with Alberta in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bricker noted support for Alberta remaining in Canada is notably lower in Quebec than the national average, suggesting Quebecers may be viewing developments in Alberta through the lens of their own provincial situation and could be more cautious about actions that might have implications for Quebec, such as federal intervention.<\/p>\n

\u201c(Quebecers) don\u2019t want anybody to be doing anything in Alberta that they feel that they will have to deal with in the province of Quebec.\u201d<\/p>\n

A majority of Canadians outside Alberta \u2014 58 per cent \u2014 believe the entire country should have a say in whether Alberta separates, while 28 per cent say it should be up to Albertans alone.<\/p>\n

In Quebec, 51 per cent say the decision should rest with Albertans and 34 per cent support a national say.<\/p>\n

\u201cAgain, that\u2019s a reflection of what\u2019s going on in the province of Quebec as much as it is a reflection of what is going on in the province of Alberta.\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1:51
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAlberta separatist leader says Smith\u2019s claim on hefty financial cost of independence is \u2018nonsense\u2019\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

On the role of the federal government, 53 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta believe Ottawa should play a role in a referendum campaign, compared with 29 per cent who say it should stay out.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

\u201cHalf of Canadians say that the federal (government) needs to be involved, but where the number really drops off the cliff is in the province of Quebec,\u201d Bricker added.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey really don\u2019t feel the federal governments should be involved.\u201d<\/p>\n

Opinions are split in Alberta, with 45 per cent supporting a federal role and 42 per cent against it.<\/p>\n

Most Albertans already have minds made up<\/p>\n

Multiple pollsters have asked Albertans and Canadians a range of similar questions to do with separatism and the data shows the needle has not budged much poll to poll, from month to month.<\/p>\n

An\u00a0Angus Reid Institute survey<\/a>, conducted from May 22\u201324 after the province announced it was adding the 10th question to the referendum<\/a>, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1:46
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tConfusion in Alberta over separatism referendum question\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

A different poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute<\/a> also found support for independence amongst the general public was at three in 10.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

In January, an Ipsos poll found about three in 10 residents supported independence<\/a>, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.<\/p>\n

Albertans will go to the polls to vote in the 10-question referendum on Monday, Oct. 19.<\/p>\n

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News was done online between May 28 and June 1, 2026, with a sample of 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and older, including 600 Alberta residents and 900 from the rest of Canada. The results have a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for the full sample.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Click<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2:05
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNew\u00a0Ipsos\u00a0poll suggests less desire\u00a0for\u00a0separation\u00a0in Alberta\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\tPrevious Video<\/p>\n

\t\tNext Video<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Support for Alberta separatism has declined since the beginning of 2026, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":716897,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7611,25159,25158,48,43,107504,44,714,160872,41,39,42,40],"class_list":["post-716896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-alberta-legislature","tag-alberta-referendum","tag-alberta-separatism","tag-canada","tag-headlines","tag-ipsos","tag-news","tag-politics","tag-referendum","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/716896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=716896"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/716896\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/716897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=716896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=716896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=716896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}