Climate Change<\/a> Canada (ECCC) released its three-month summer forecast which compares outlook probabilities to Canada\u2019s climate from the 30-year period spanning 1990-2020.<\/p>\nThe verdict: expect heat and humidity.<\/p>\n
Temperatures<\/p>\n
Across the whole country there is a high likelihood of temperatures exceeding averages this summer, Environment Canada says. But there will still be some variance depending on where in the country you live.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strongest warm signals are found in British Columbia, Yukon, along the mainland portions of the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the northern parts of the prairies, as well as Atlantic Canada,\u201d Jennifer Smith, a meteorologist with ECC said Friday.<\/p>\n
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However, she noted the hot weather is a trend, but pockets of cooler air will still make their way across the country.<\/p>\n
\u201cDay-to-day weather will continue to be shaped by passing weather systems and local influences like cold fronts, thunderstorms, and onshore breezes near lakes and oceans,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
Some parts of Canada are already experiencing that warmer weather. After a short and unpredictable spring, parts of southern Ontario including Ottawa and Toronto are seeing temperatures in the high 20s pushing 30 C.<\/p>\n
According to Peter Quinlan, a meteorologist with Global News, the seasonal high for this time of year in Toronto is 23 C.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt looks like we\u2019ll be above that mark right through the next week. So we are getting into some heat in southern Ontario,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt kind of often goes in a seesaw pattern: when the west cools the east warms and then vice versa,\u201d he added. \u201cBut it looks like overall the trend throughout the summer will be warmer than normal.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Last week, Saskatchewan experienced its first heat event of the season with the average temperature across the entire province sitting at 29 C.<\/p>\n
Above-average temperatures are being driven by a number of factors, but the most significant two are climate change and El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
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Nathan Gillett, a research scientist with ECCC said average summer temperatures have risen 1.65 C in Canada since 1948.<\/p>\n
\u201cCanada is warming at nearly twice the global rate,\u201d he said. \u201cThe forecast anomalies are relative to that 1991-to-2020 base period. And what that means is that because of the long-term warming, we\u2019re going to see warm anomalies more often than cold anomalies.\u201d<\/p>\n
Climate change also increases the possibility for extreme heat days. An extreme heat event is called when the temperature reaches or exceeds 31 C or the humidex exceeds 40 for two or more days.<\/p>\n
This year is also expected to develop a particularly strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o refers to a warming of surface ocean temperatures which typically bring a warmer and drier winter to the Americas.<\/p>\n
But Quinlan said the phenomenon appears to be developing earlier this year, which could bring hotter conditions across southern Canada.<\/p>\n
Humidity<\/p>\n
Environment Canada projections also show an increased likelihood for higher than normal specific humidity, which measures the mass of water vapour in the area. Humidity can make it feel much warmer than it actually is, and can hinder the body\u2019s ability to cool itself down.<\/p>\n
Smith said higher humidity will affect nighttime temperatures.<\/p>\n
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\u201cWhen it\u2019s very, very muggy, the overnight temperature has a hard time cooling off overnight, which makes it difficult for humans to cool off during the nighttime period,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
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Quinlan said one of the biggest concerns this summer is that there may not be as much relief with nighttime temperatures.<\/p>\n
\u201cThose nighttime temperatures are really trending upwards,\u201d he said. \u201cSo if you don\u2019t have air conditioning you won\u2019t be able to open the windows and get that refreshing of your indoor temperature as easily as you would say in a more typical year or in a below-average year.\u201d<\/p>\n
Quinlan said regions closer to bodies of water, namely southern Ontario and Quebec and Atlantic Canada, typically experience higher humidex levels.<\/p>\n
Environment Canada modelling shows an anomaly in B.C. The westernmost province usually experiences a drier summer thanks to winds and mountains. But this summer the area can expect more moisture in the air, making it feel sticky.<\/p>\n
Precipitation<\/p>\n
Levels of precipitation are a bit more unpredictable this summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn general, summertime precipitation is very difficult to predict,\u201d Smith said. \u201cIt is often driven by thunderstorms and showers that occur on a very, very small time scale and a very small spatial scale.\u201d<\/p>\n
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That being said, ECCC data does show a likelihood for a drier than normal summer in some parts of the country.<\/p>\n
Victoria, Vancouver and Prince George in the west, as well as Halifax and St. John\u2019s in the Maritimes, Thunder Bay, Ont. and Whitehorse, Yukon are trending drier for much of the summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Eastern Canada, tropical systems or their remnants can significantly alter seasonal rainfall totals at a regional scale if they make landfall,\u201d Smith said. \u201cBecause of this, it\u2019s important to emphasize that summer precipitation is highly variable and very difficult to predict at a seasonal time scale.\u201d<\/p>\n
Southwestern Ontario, a hotspot for thunderstorms and even tornadoes, could still expect extreme weather, Smith said, as a result of cold fronts sweeping in across the Great Lakes.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s always a little bit of a wild card,\u201d Quinlan said. \u201cWe may see a bit more of an active pattern in parts of southern Quebec and eastern Ontario as well as onto parts of the prairies.\u201d<\/p>\n
Drier weather can also contribute to a more robust wildfire season.<\/p>\n
As of May 28, there were 65 active wildfires across Canada, with six considered to be out of control.<\/p>\n
According to Environment Canada, B.C. will experience the \u201chighest and most sustained\u201d risk this wildfire season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a particularly cold and snowy winter across much of Canada, it appears summer may tip the scales…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":717758,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,6093,69997,219189,44,259774,1133],"class_list":["post-717757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino","tag-environment-and-climate-change-canada","tag-news","tag-summer-weather","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/717757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=717757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/717757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/717758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=717757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=717757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=717757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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