For 176 consecutive weeks running, either Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek has been the No. 1 player in the PIF WTA Rankings. Since Ashleigh Barty retired in April 2022, they have won eight of the 14 Grand Slams.<\/p>\n
For a week now, the No. 1-seeded Sabalenka and No. 3 Swiatek seemed to have been on a collision course to meet in the Sunday semifinals of the Cincinnati Open. But on Friday, No. 9 Elena Rybakina forcefully created an alternative scenario.<\/p>\n
Her surprisingly swift and definitive 6-1, 6-4 victory over Sabalenka set up a rare opportunity to produce back-to-back victories over the game\u2019s two most dominant players. Swiatek started the day with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over No. 28 Anna Kalinskaya.<\/p>\n
In the nine previous matches against Rybakina, Swiatek holds a tenuous 5-4 edge.<\/p>\n
We examine their prospects:<\/p>\n
Advantage, Swiatek<\/p>\n
After hitting some turbulence at the end of 2024, she\u2019s back in form and ready for another run at No. 1.<\/p>\n
The title at Wimbledon was something a surprise, but after a tidy defeat of Kalinskaya — who she had never beaten — Swiatek is into her third semifinal in seven tries at Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
A win there would be another step toward the top of tennis, moving Swiatek into her first WTA 1000 final in 15 months — when she beat Sabalenka in Rome. In the bigger picture, on the heels of her breakthrough victory at Wimbledon, a win would lock down a spot in the WTA Finals for the fifth straight year.<\/p>\n
Swiatek ousts Kalinskaya to keep Cincinnati title hopes alive<\/p>\n
The biggest factor here: Swiatek has a huge edge in energy reserves.\u00a0<\/p>\n
She received a third-round walkover when Marta Kostyuk withdrew with a lingering wrist injury. In the three matches she\u2019s played, Swiatek\u2019s only dropped 19 games. Against Kalinskaya, she served well and the backhand was on point.<\/p>\n
Before meeting Sabalenka, Rybakina was extended to three sets against Renata Zarazua, Elise Mertens and Madison Keys — and she specifically mentioned the need to recover in her on-court interview.<\/p>\n
Rybakina came into the season with a 4-2 head-to-head edge on Swiatek, but has lost all three matches this year, at the United Cup in Australia, Doha and Roland Garros. That should give Swiatek a big advantage in confidence.<\/p>\n
Swiatek has never been to the final in Cincinnati. She\u2019d love to head into the US Open with that momentum.<\/p>\n
Advantage,\u00a0Rybakina<\/p>\n
No player has navigated her way through these lazy, hazy days of North American summer better than Rybakina.<\/p>\n
After knocking off the World No. 1, she\u2019s already 10-2 in the hard-court swing. Those two losses came to the eventual champions in the semifinals of Washington, D.C., and Montreal, respectively, Leylah Fernandez and Victoria Mboko.<\/p>\n
Rybakina ousts top seed Sabalenka to reach Cincinnati semifinal<\/p>\n
Over the past five years, Rybakina has scored seven wins against the World No. 1, defeating Swiatek four times and Sabalenka three. No one else has more in that span.<\/p>\n
Coming in, Rybakina had lost seven of the previous 11 meetings with Sabalenka. This time, she was focused, determined and tenacious, winning in only 74 minutes.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m happy with the serve, definitely,\u201d Rybakina said in her on-court interview.<\/p>\n
Rybakina fired 11 aces and hit only one double fault. Sabalenka had five break-point opportunities and didn\u2019t convert one. Rybakina was a lethal 3-for-5.<\/p>\n
Here is why Rybakina can beat anyone when she\u2019s serving in rhythm:<\/p>\n
Sabalenka wasn\u2019t at her best Friday, but you knew she\u2019d dig in and fight for the second set. Sure enough, with Rybakina serving at 4-3, Sabalenka forged a break point. Rybakina responded with a thunderous ace. Sabalenka, persevering, earned another break opportunity — and Rybakina hit another ace.<\/p>\n
In her sixth appearance, Rybakina has already recorded her best effort in Cincinnati. Now, she\u2019d like to take it a step further.<\/p>\n
Two years ago, Rybakina won her only two WTA 1000 tournaments, at Indian Wells and Rome — and beat Swiatek on the way to both titles.<\/p>\n
Rybakina has produced 23 career wins over Top 10 players. If she plays like she did Friday, expect win number 24.<\/p>\n
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