{"id":736756,"date":"2026-06-14T19:19:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T19:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/736756\/"},"modified":"2026-06-14T19:19:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T19:19:12","slug":"what-were-the-chances-of-hamilton-winning-in-barcelona-without-the-virtual-safety-car","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/736756\/","title":{"rendered":"What were the chances of Hamilton winning in Barcelona without the virtual safety car?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Formula 1 has ever been freighted with\u00a0shoulda-woulda-coulda moments. The late, great Murray Walker once opined that, \u201cF1 is \u2018if\u2019 backwards.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On a point of order, Murray, that would be 1F backwards, but I digress.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/lewis-hamilton\/829181\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Lewis Hamilton<\/a> claimed a significant first grand prix victory for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/team\/ferrari\/36466\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Ferrari<\/a> in Barcelona, to add to the sprint win he secured in China last year. The emotions churned through his voice on his cooldown lap; you could sense the tears as he said on the radio, \u201cI can\u2019t thank you enough,\u201d he remarked over the airwaves.<\/p>\n<p>Read Also:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor everyone pushing so hard back at home, I\u2019m so proud of you. And to my family, I love you. And to the fans, thank you for continuing to remind me who I am.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s remind ourselves who he is: a supremely competitive racing driver. Hamilton has endured a turgid few seasons in ground-effect machinery, which defied his stylistic needs. He has pushed for change at Ferrari, even as tone-deaf leaders on the executive floor have harrumphed that the drivers should focus on driving and talk less.<\/p>\n<p>And this weekend, the payback as Ferrari brought a major new update package which Hamilton admittedly took some time to unpick. Having sat out FP1 while rookie driver <a href=\"https:\/\/autosport.com\/driver\/dino-beganovic\/950448\/\" data-entitylink-text=\"Dino Beganovic\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dino Beganovic<\/a> took his car, Hamilton was surprised not to be able to pick up the threads quickly at a track which was otherwise familiar.<\/p>\n<p>Only after a \u201creset\u201d between FP3 and qualifying \u2013 where he left the paddock and retreated to the sanctuary of his motorhome \u2013 did Hamilton snap back into the groove, and he was denied pole position only by a factor of milliseconds. Follow the squiggles on the telemetry trace and you see it comes down to the fractionally greater feather of the throttle he required through the final corner.<\/p>\n<p>The Ferrari was mighty through Barcelona\u2019s Turns 1, 4, 7 and 12, all medium-speed corners that reward a precise feel for modulating brake input \u2013 a long-time Hamilton speciality. But even so, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/george-russell\/840489\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">George Russell<\/a> was on pole in what\u2019s considered the quickest car on the grid, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/team\/mercedes\/36495\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Mercedes<\/a>\u2019 W17, with <a href=\"https:\/\/autosport.com\/driver\/andrea-kimi-antonelli\/953410\/\" data-custom-text=\"1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Kimi Antonelli<\/a> lining up third, and Monaco proved that Ferrari can no longer count on getting a faster launch.<\/p>\n<p>   <img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781464750_340_lewis-hamilton-ferrari-george-.jpg\" alt=\"Would the podium positions have been the same without a VSC?\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" loading=\"lazy\"\/> <\/p>\n<p class=\"title\">Would the podium positions have been the same without a VSC?<\/p>\n<p class=\"photographer\">Photo by: Simon Galloway \/ LAT Images via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>To that end, the Scuderia gambled on starting Hamilton on softs, of which only a used set was available, in a bid to reach Turn 1 first and secure the track position that\u2019s so important at Barcelona. This track is an engineer\u2019s dream, with a broad variety of corners, but a dismal one for fans given how difficult it is to overtake here.<\/p>\n<p>The absence of team-mate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/charles-leclerc\/840485\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Charles Leclerc<\/a> \u2013 who smote the barrier in Q3 and lined up 10th on the grid \u2013 meant Hamilton would be on his own against the two Mercedes. Unless Leclerc got the launch of his life, splitting strategies to tag-team the Merc drivers would not be an option.<\/p>\n<p>What you can count on with Mercedes, though, is a spirit of risk-aversion in its stragetic outlook. And so it came to pass.<\/p>\n<p>Ferrari\u2019s opening gambit failed, since Hamilton didn\u2019t make it to the first corner first, but the smart play for Mercedes at this point would have been to give Russell some leeway to push, given that he was on used mediums. The fear ahead of this race, on the second most abrasive track surface of the year, was that the softer to compounds wouldn\u2019t last long enough even for this to be a two-stopper: Pirelli had gone a step softer so this season\u2019s medium (the C3) was last year\u2019s soft, which wasn\u2019t a great race tyre.<\/p>\n<p>But by extension, this year\u2019s soft \u2013 the C4 \u2013 would be a pretty dismal race tyre. As it was, Russell and the other frontrunners quickly settled into tyre management mode, enabling Hamilton to delay his first pitstop until the end of lap 11 \u2013 early, but not far off the predicted window for a two-stopper for those starting on fresh C3s.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, Russell was holding a steady gap of around 3.5 seconds to Hamilton, with Antonelli 1.9s further adrift. Crucially, there was a nice gap opening up further back between seventh-placed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/oscar-piastri\/869530\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Oscar Piastri<\/a> and eighth-placed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/liam-lawson\/841994\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Liam Lawson<\/a>. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/team\/alphatauri-36471\/36471\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Racing Bulls<\/a> was over 22s behind Hamilton, which was a bit tight \u2013 but he was also pitting, to get off his C3s, making the question academic.<\/p>\n<p>Hamilton duly departed the pits in P7, behind Piastri, on one of the two sets of new C2s remaining to him. 26.7s down on the leader, the pitlane time loss of around 23s well within the order of expectation (not so for Lawson, whose stop was peculiarly slow).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s probably going for a three,\u201d mused Russell on the radio.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou could have given me the heads-up. You\u2019ve exposed me to Kimi now,\u201d<br \/>George Russell<\/p>\n<p>But Mercedes felt compelled to respond \u2013 to guard against the potential undercut \u2013 and Russell was called in next time around. He fed out ahead of Hamilton, but only by 1.5s. Russell was displeased.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI was managing in that first stint,\u201d he complained. \u201cYou could have given me the heads-up. You\u2019ve exposed me to Kimi now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be long for everyone,\u201d race engineer Marcus Dudley assured him.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI need an update on the plan, then \u2013 are we moving to a three, you think?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStill on plan here, George. Nothing to worry about here,\u201d went the exchange.<\/p>\n<p>At this stage, Mercedes still considered <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/lando-norris\/840487\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Lando Norris<\/a> the bigger overall threat, certainly to Antonelli. Norris pitted at the end of lap 13 for new C2s so Mercedes brought Antonelli in for the same the next lap around, narrowly avoiding being undercut \u2013 Norris was within a second of Kimi as they rounded Turn 2.<\/p>\n<p>This defused the threat to Russell from Antonelli slightly in that it aligned the strategy of the two Mercedes. But was it a mistake to downplay the threat posed by Hamilton?<\/p>\n<p>Lewis stayed within the order of two seconds off Russell\u2019s tail throughout this second stint, and Antonelli was given the go-ahead to \u201cpush\u201d and get closer to Hamilton, edging towards a two-second margin. As the lap count entered the 20s, Russell was told \u201cThe next seven laps are critical to our race.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>   <img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781464750_754_andrea-kimi-antonelli-mercedes.jpg\" alt=\"The Mercedes pair had a close scrap through the Barcelona race\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" loading=\"lazy\"\/> <\/p>\n<p class=\"title\">The Mercedes pair had a close scrap through the Barcelona race<\/p>\n<p class=\"photographer\">Photo by: Alastair Staley \/ LAT Images via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>There is always a delay in broadcasting team radio so it\u2019s difficult to be precise \u2013 but highly likely this was lap 21, when Russell was two seconds ahead of Hamilton but Antonelli was still 4s off the Ferrari, with Norris 2.5s further in arrears. Crucially, perhaps, Leclerc was 20s behind Russell and lapping around eight tenths faster than him on four-lap-old C2s, thereby creating a potential obstacle for Russell\u2019s next pit window.<\/p>\n<p>Over the next six laps, Antonelli closed to 1.4s off Hamilton, while Norris was just 1.6s off the other Mercedes. Leclerc was now 16.5s behind Russell, Piastri 23.4s.<\/p>\n<p>This was, indeed, a critical point, because Piastri was lapping in the region of two tenths faster than Russell. So, if George were to pit, he would likely come out behind the second <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/team\/mclaren\/36473\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">McLaren<\/a> and would undoubtedly be the subject of a papaya team op.<\/p>\n<p>So, it was a smart time to bring Hamilton in, given the gap between Piastri in P7 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/isack-hadjar\/869518\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Isack Hadjar<\/a> in P8, since Russell was coming up to lap a gaggle of traffic: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/esteban-ocon\/840488\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Esteban Ocon<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/arvid-lindblad\/953485\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Arvid Lindblad<\/a> (on three-lap-old C2s), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/gabriel-bortoleto\/950453\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Gabriel Bortoleto<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/carlos-sainz\/829244\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Carlos Sainz<\/a>. Lewis emerged from his second stop, armed with new C3s, 2.9s behind Piastri on 13-lap-old C2s.<\/p>\n<p>On lap 29, Hamilton breezed past the McLaren on the outside of Turn 3. F1 TV chose this moment to relay team radio with Dudley saying \u201cLewis is on a three. We are still racing Norris so we need to keep these laptimes going.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But here Russell was coming under serious threat from Antonelli, who was snipping whole chunks of time from him by the lap \u2013 0.4s here, 0.6s there. On lap 30 alone, as Russell laboured to pass the Lindblad-Bortoleto-Sainz train, Antonelli took 1.2s out of him.<\/p>\n<p>In P5, Hamilton set the fastest lap of the race, a full three seconds faster. Russell\u2019s race was very much going south. Come lap 31, Antonelli was within the one-second margin to qualify for overtake mode. Hamilton continued to make inroads.<\/p>\n<p>Hamilton then got on the radio to race engineer Carlo Santi: \u201cLet me know what I need to do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c20.9[s]. Charles in front, you are on a different strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>   <img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781464752_571_charles-leclerc-ferrari.jpg\" alt=\"Ferrari split the strategy between its drivers\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" loading=\"lazy\"\/> <\/p>\n<p class=\"title\">Ferrari split the strategy between its drivers<\/p>\n<p class=\"photographer\">Photo by: Simon Galloway \/ LAT Images via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Leclerc was indeed 2.6s in front, on 14-lap-old C2s, but of greater significance was the gap between Russell and Hamilton: from being 25.8s off the leader when he left the pits, he was now 18.1s. There was no way Russell could pit and emerge ahead of the Ferrari, should he stop now.<\/p>\n<p>With 35 laps still to run, both cars would have to stop again \u2013 the question was how much Lewis could reduce the gap before he went back onto the C2s at his next stop. And of course, Leclec obligingly moved over for Hamilton at the beginning of lap 32.<\/p>\n<p>A lap later, Antonelli tried to pass Russell into Turn 1, and George only just managed to resist. The Mercedes spent the next three laps at war, despite repeated instructions to Antonelli not to \u201cslow each other down fighting\u201d, and reminders that he had incurred three strikes for track limits and was now at risk of a 5s penalty.<\/p>\n<p>Norris continued to appear to be Mercedes\u2019 focus: \u201cWe need to keep that gap to Norris healthy,\u201d Peter Bonnington reminded Antonelli.<\/p>\n<p>At 4.6s, it was indeed relatively healthy. But behind, Hamilton continued to close: on lap 34 he took over two seconds out of Norris, closing to 2.4s off the McLaren \u2013 and 7.6s off leader Russell.<\/p>\n<p>Norris then pitted at the end of lap 35 to get rid of his 21-lap-old C2s, prompting Mercedes to call Russell in next time around for what would be his second and final stop. But on lap 35, Hamilton had taken over 1.7s off the leader to come within 6.7s of him.<\/p>\n<p>So, when Russell emerged, facing the prospect of 29 laps on his final set of C2s, Hamilton was on C3s which were just nine laps old \u2013 probably enough to last until the mid-teens. And he\u2019d just taken 2.2s out of Antonelli to be 4.6s off the new race leader.<\/p>\n<p>The gap between Hamilton and Russell at this point was 17s \u2013 not enough for Lewis to pit and be assured of coming out ahead, but not far off.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is our race, give everything these seven laps,&#8221;\u00a0<br \/>Carlo Santi<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt won\u2019t be long, Kimi,\u201d Bonnington said on the radio. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to cover Norris.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Then at the end of lap 37, Antonelli broke for the pits, handing the lead to Hamilton.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe run another seven laps on this set,\u201d Santi told Lewis. \u201cThis is our race, give everything these seven laps \u2013 is the critical moment, we have our chance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mercedes was still looking at Norris \u2013 and rightly so, since Lando set the fastest lap of the race when Antonelli pitted, leaving him just half a second off the Mercedes when Kimi emerged. But Hamilton had a relatively clear track ahead of him \u2013 just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/pierre-gasly\/840483\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Pierre Gasly<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/team\/alpine\/39174\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Alpine<\/a> and then acres of clear air before he reached the backmarking Cadillac and Aston Martin of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/sergio-perez\/829668\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Sergio Perez<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.autosport.com\/driver\/fernando-alonso\/829156\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Fernando Alonso<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Russell, conversely, had Lecerc 3s ahead of him and ready to make a nuisance of himself, plus Colapinto and Lindblad to lap.<\/p>\n<p>Linblad obligingly broke for the pits at the end of lap 38 and Russell was able to set his fastest lap of the race, a 1m20.709s compared with the 1m21.360s just set by Hamilton. The gap was now 16.879s.<\/p>\n<p>On lap 39, Russell cleared Colapinto in sector one and closed to 1.3s off Leclerc. Gasly was less co-operative than he could have been with Hamilton, only moving over at Turn 12 when he could have done so at Turn 10.<\/p>\n<p>Russell then took advantage of having tyres 20 laps younger than Leclerc\u2019s to sneak up the inside into Turn 12. It was a slower lap \u2013 1m21.179s \u2013 but Hamilton had also lost time with Gasly, going round in 1m21.859s. The gap was now just over 16s.<\/p>\n<p>   <img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781464752_26_andrea-kimi-antonelli-mercedes.jpg\" alt=\"Mercedes expected a closer fight between its drivers and Ferrari\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" loading=\"lazy\"\/> <\/p>\n<p class=\"title\">Mercedes expected a closer fight between its drivers and Ferrari<\/p>\n<p class=\"photographer\">Photo by: Sam Bloxham \/ LAT Images via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are forecast to be battling Lewis at the end of the race on that three-stop,\u201d Russell was told.<\/p>\n<p>Hamilton was the first car on the scene as Alonso\u2019s Aston Martin ground to a halt on the run up the hill to Turn 9, warranting a note from the stewards to check if he had observed the ensuing yellow flag \u2013 though the gap to Russell shrank to 15.7s. It wasn\u2019t until Hamilton was crossing the line to start lap 41 that the yellow flag was upgraded to a virtual safety car.<\/p>\n<p>That provided the opportunity for Hamilton to pit for a new set of C2s and emerge in the lead to the tune of 1.6s, rather than in fourth place behind Norris, who was 18.6s behind when the VSC was triggered. Verstappen in P5 was 31s behind (and, as it happened, also pitted under the VSC), so it would have to be a disastrous stop for Hamilton to have come out lower than P4 under green-flag conditions.<\/p>\n<p>So, would Hamilton have won even without the VSC? That\u2019s a tough call \u2013 before Alonso broke down, he had a clear track ahead of him apart from Perez, then another gap to Hadjar, so it\u2019s reasonable to assume he would have been able to keep on pushing and established a bigger tyre-life offset before pitting, even if he rejoined behind Norris.<\/p>\n<p>As it stood, in the final phase of the race he had tyres five laps younger than Russell\u2019s, four laps younger than Antonelli\u2019s, and six laps younger than Norris\u2019s. Had the VSC not happened, the offset would be four or five laps greater.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s assume Russell carried on taking half a second or so out of Hamilton over another five laps in green-flag conditions, and closed the gap to around 11s. That would have meant Lewis would emerge in the region of 12s down on Russell with 20-odd laps to go.<\/p>\n<p>And although Hamilton would have needed to overtake Norris and perhaps Antonelli \u2013 a difficult one to figure, given his retirement with four laps to run \u2013 as well as Russell, his final victory margin of 19.5s suggests he had pace in hand. And this was with 25 laps rather than perhaps 20 to eke out of those C2s.<\/p>\n<p>Around Barcelona, if you have half a second or so per lap pace advantage over another car you can usually pass. And that\u2019s what Russell thought after the race.<\/p>\n<p>Read Also:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cObviously,\u201d he mused, \u201cLewis probably would have come back through anyway, but without the virtual safety car, he would have pitted behind us.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWho knows what would have happened? But yeah, I was just struggling towards the end of the stints\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p>            We want to hear from you!<\/p>\n<p class=\"mt-auto\">Let us know what you would like to see from us in the future.<\/p>\n<p>            <a href=\"#\" class=\"ms-link text-link font-bold\">Take our survey<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"mt-1 text-body\">&#8211; The Autosport.com Team<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Formula 1 has ever been freighted with\u00a0shoulda-woulda-coulda moments. The late, great Murray Walker once opined that, \u201cF1 is&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":736757,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[441],"tags":[262910,49,48,148380,578,930,576,577,932,82,264756],"class_list":["post-736756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-formula-1","tag-barcelona-catalunya-gp","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-circuit-de-barcelona-catalunya","tag-f1","tag-ferrari","tag-formula-1","tag-formula1","tag-lewis-hamilton","tag-sports","tag-what-were-the-chances-of-hamilton-winning-in-barcelona-without-the-virtual-safety-car"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/736756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=736756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/736756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/736757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=736756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=736756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=736756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}