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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 08: Steven Spielberg speaks onstage during the US premiere of DISCLOSURE DAY presented by Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment on June 08, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Coppola\/Getty Images for Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment )<\/p>\n
Getty Images for Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment<\/p>\n
Between Project Hail Mary, Disclosure Day, The Odyssey, and Dune: Part Three, four of the year\u2019s biggest blockbusters are already mounting Best Picture campaigns for the 2027 Oscars, questioning if the Academy has room to recognize all of them. <\/p>\n
Over the years, the Oscars have garnered a reputation for snubbing studio tentpoles<\/a> from consideration in above-the-line categories. In 2018, the Academy proposed adding a category for \u201cOutstanding Achievement in Popular Film,\u201d but quickly rolled that back after backlash<\/a>.<\/p>\n After years of struggling to fill movie theatres following the pandemic and steep competition from streamers, the first half of 2026 has finally marked a major achievement in bringing cinemas, like AMC<\/a>, their highest-attended month of May since 2019. Toy Story 5 also brought the summer box office to $1.85 billion<\/a> \u2013 the highest since 2019.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not only blockbusters and franchise films that have contributed to this victory for theatres \u2013 even indie horror movies like Obsession<\/a> and Backrooms<\/a> have performed far beyond their box office expectations. <\/p>\n In the 2020s, an average of one to two blockbusters has received a Best Picture nomination each year, including F1, Wicked, Barbie, Top Gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water, suggesting that the Academy may be warming up to popular mainstream movies. <\/p>\n But as the Oscars continue to struggle with ratings<\/a>, it could benefit both the award show and the box office if the Academy acknowledged this record-breaking year by fully embracing these movies that may otherwise be snubbed. Among new category adds like Best Casting in 2025 and Best Stunt Design<\/a> in 2027, the Academy should consider following the example of the Golden Globes and creating an award recognizing Outstanding Cinematic Achievement.<\/p>\n NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 18: Ryan Gosling attends the “Project Hail Mary” New York Premiere at Josie Robertson Plaza at Lincoln Center on March 18, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jason Mendez\/Getty Images for Amazon MGM Studios)<\/p>\n Getty Images for Amazon MGM Studios\u2018Project Hail Mary\u2019 Became The Blockbuster To Beat<\/p>\n Amazon MGM\u2019s Project Hail Mary was the first major blockbuster release of 2026 and an explosive success critically and commercially. <\/p>\n Project Hail Mary, which was released in March, is still one of the year\u2019s best-reviewed movies<\/a> so far. Over 100 critics were polled by World of Reel<\/a> to submit an unranked list of their top five films released in the first half of 2026. Project Hail Mary came out on top, with 49 votes. Critics praised Project Hail Mary<\/a> for Ryan Gosling\u2019s charismatic performance and the hopeful tone of the script. <\/p>\n To date, Project Hail Mary has made over $681 million<\/a> worldwide. Its audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is currently at 95%<\/a>, proving that the movie is resonating with the public, as well as critics. <\/p>\n As an Andy Weir book adaptation, Project Hail Mary could follow in the footsteps of 2015\u2019s The Martian, which was nominated for seven Oscars, including Best Picture. Of 2026\u2019s four blockbuster contenders, Project Hail Mary currently holds the strongest position in the race with good reviews<\/a>, audience enthusiasm<\/a> and a lucrative box office. <\/p>\n But Best Picture consideration is not guaranteed. While a movie doesn\u2019t need to be released in the fall or winter to be in the Best Picture race, films that release in the first half of the year still have an uphill battle to awards season: to not be overshadowed by newer releases. Project Hail Mary\u2019s position will also be tested against new releases from filmmakers with stronger Oscar pedigrees. <\/p>\n Even in craft categories like Best Visual Effects, Project Hail Mary faces competition from other sci-fi films like Disclosure Day and Dune: Part Three as well as superhero blockbusters like Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. <\/p>\n If a film defies expectations and resonates with audiences like Project Hail Mary, shouldn\u2019t it be rewarded by the Academy that recognizes cinematic excellence?<\/p>\n NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 08: (L-R) David Koepp, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Josh O’Connor, Steven Spielberg, Emily Blunt, Colman Domingo, Eve Hewson and Wyatt Russell attend the US premiere of DISCLOSURE DAY presented by Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment on June 08, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin\/Getty Images for Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment )<\/p>\n Getty Images for Universal Pictures and Amblin EntertainmentDivisive Reviews Could Take \u2018Disclosure Day\u2019 Out Of The Race<\/p>\n Disclosure Day, Universal\u2019s newest tentpole release, is noted for being Steven Spielberg\u2019s return to the alien genre, after Close Encounters of the Third Kind, which won one Oscar, and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, which won four and was nominated for Best Picture. <\/p>\n In its opening weekend, Disclosure Day grossed $44 million<\/a> domestically, securing the No. 1 box office spot and becoming Spielberg\u2019s fifth-highest movie opening. Disclosure Day\u2019s<\/a> success proved that there is still audience appetite for new stories from traditional Hollywood directors. <\/p>\n However, word-of-mouth is polarizing. Disclosure Day has been receiving mixed-to-positive reviews, both by critics<\/a> and general audiences<\/a>. The movie earned a \u201cB\u201d CinemaScore, which is one of the lowest scores of Spielberg\u2019s filmography. <\/p>\n Disclosure Day\u2019s Oscar fate will become clearer over the coming weeks, as it competes against IP-based blockbusters like Toy Story 5 and Supergirl at the box office. Beyond the reviews, it still proves a compelling case for the Oscars to acknowledge the cinematic achievement of one of their most-nominated directors.<\/p>\n LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 15: Christopher Nolan promotes the upcoming film “The Odyssey” at the Universal Pictures and Focus Features presentation at The Dolby Colosseum at Caesars Palace during CinemaCon, the official convention of Cinema United, on April 15, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n Getty Images\u2018The Odyssey\u2019 Carries The Weight Of Oppenheimer’s Success<\/p>\n Despite rocky online reactions to the trailers, The Odyssey<\/a> still managed to crash AMC, Fandango and Regal servers when tickets went on sale more than a month before the film\u2019s release. Just as Christopher Nolan\u2019s last film and Best Picture winner Oppenheimer was in 2023, The Odyssey is sure to be one of the biggest theatrical events of the year. <\/p>\n It\u2019s not just Christopher Nolan\u2019s directorial prestige that hints The Odyssey may be more than just a summer popcorn movie. <\/p>\n This will be the first feature film adaptation of Homer\u2019s epic poem. Among the cast\u2019s accolades, Matt Damon has been nominated in the acting categories at the Oscars three times, and Anne Hathaway and Lupita N\u2019yongo are both Best Supporting Actress winners. Additionally, last year\u2019s Oscar winner for Best Original Score, Ludwig G\u00f6ransson, will be composing The Odyssey. <\/p>\n However, the release of the final trailer<\/a> drew some controversy<\/a> that could have the potential to hurt the film\u2019s Oscar chances. Some fans took issue with the use of American accents and modern-sounding dialogue, namely, a line from Robert Pattinson\u2019s Antinous: \u201cYou\u2019re pining for a daddy you didn\u2019t even know.\u201d <\/p>\n It is worth noting that Nolan has cited Emily Wilson\u2019s 2017 translation as inspiration for Odysseus\u2019s character in an Empire interview<\/a>. Wilson\u2019s translation uses colloquial sayings<\/a> including \u201cdaddy.\u201d <\/p>\n July 17 will reveal whether The Odyssey will be a Best Picture frontrunner as Oppenheimer was. Regardless of reviews, The Odyssey is a monumental<\/a> cinematic feat that makes the case to be recognized for cinematic excellence by the Oscars. <\/p>\n LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 14: (L-R) Jason Momoa, Denis Villeneuve, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and Zendaya promote the upcoming film “Dune: Part Three” at the Warner Bros. Pictures presentation at The Dolby Colosseum at Caesars Palace during CinemaCon on April 14, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Jon\/Getty Images for Warner Bros. Pictures)<\/p>\n Getty Images for Warner Bros. Pictures\u2018Dune: Part Three\u2019 Faces Potential For Franchise Fatigue<\/p>\n Though the much-anticipated final installment of the Dune trilogy releases on December 18, many awards pundits are already including it in their Best Picture lineups. As of writing, Polymarket<\/a> gives Dune a 70% chance of being nominated for Best Picture, putting it currently in fourth place. <\/p>\n There is precedent to support those odds \u2013 after all, Dune and Dune: Part Two both were nominated for Best Picture. <\/p>\n However, the Academy also has a history of snubbing sequels, even those to films that performed strongly at the Oscars, like the Avatar franchise. <\/p>\n Similar to Dune, the first two films in the Avatar franchise were both nominated for Best Picture. The first Avatar film won three Oscars out of nine nominations, while the second only won one out of four nominations. The third film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, was only nominated in one category at the 2026 Oscars: Best Visual Effects, the category the franchise most consistently wins. <\/p>\n Like Avatar, Dune\u2019s nomination count dropped from film to film. The first Dune film won six Oscars out of 10 nominations in Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Production Design, Best Score and Best Editing. The second went down to five nominations and two wins, repeating in Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. Another commonality that the two franchises share is that they are genre films, which historically get snubbed in the above-the-line categories.<\/p>\n One key difference, however, is that Dune: Part Three will be the final installment of a trilogy, whereas Avatar<\/a> has at least two more films to go, which worked against Fire and Ash\u2019s awards campaigning. <\/p>\n