\n The moment of truth is just about here.\n <\/p>\n
\n The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, for now, and Middle Eastern countries that shut off their oil wells during the war (the term is actually \u201cshut in\u201d) are about to turn those valves back the other way and find out what they\u2019ve got.\n <\/p>\n
\n It could be a gusher. Or, if President Donald Trump\u2019s predictions were accurate, a series of underground explosions<\/a> could cause the oil wells to deliver a trickle.\n <\/p>\n \n That\u2019s highly unlikely. But, as with most of Trump\u2019s sensational claims, there\u2019s at least a kernel of truth to it.\n <\/p>\n \n Shortly after Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz to foreign tankers, local energy producers ran out of places to store the accumulating oil and gas. Many neighboring Middle Eastern wells had shut in their production. The threat of drone attacks forced several Saudi, Emirati and Iraqi facilities to shut in during the war, too.\n <\/p>\n \n Iran had to shut in its own wells this month after the United States started blockading the strait.\n <\/p>\n \n Shut-ins are not like flipping off a light switch. They represent a complex engineering challenge that involves serious physics and meticulous planning over the course of days or even weeks.\n <\/p>\n \n When oil wells are shut in, the pressure underground can become imbalanced, deforming the underlying structure. Those changes can damage reservoirs, which can create similar problems for nearby wells, too. Water can seep in, reducing the well\u2019s potential output.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe worry is what happens when you turn things back on,\u201d said Vikas Dwivedi, global oil and gas strategist at Macquarie Group. \u201cIt\u2019s like a box of chocolates: You never know what you\u2019re gonna get.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Extended downtime can also damage equipment. Pumps and lift systems can easily become corroded. Sand and debris can settle in. Concrete casing and tubing \u2013 used to seal and extract oil \u2013 can lose integrity, causing leaks and potential hazardous gas releases.\n <\/p>\n \n And, yes, in rare cases, explosions.\n <\/p>\n \n A couple months ago, Trump wouldn\u2019t stop talking about the possibility.\n <\/p>\n April 23, Oval Office: \u201cIf they don\u2019t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode. You know what that means? Because they have no place to store it and because they have no place to store it, if they have to stop it \u2026 something happens underground that essentially renders it in very poor shape and you never recover fully.\u201d<\/p>\n April 26, Fox News: \u201cWhen you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can\u2019t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them (they have no ships because of the blockade), what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth.\u201d<\/p>\n