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<\/p>\nIndependent analyst Colin Talks Crypto says Bitcoin\u2019s market cycles may be far more regular than many assume.<\/p>\n
Re-measuring the last three bull-market advances from their bear-market lows, he finds a near-uniform 35-month span from bottom to peak \u2013 an observation that, if it repeats, would place the next potential cycle top around October 2025.<\/p>\n
Colin revisited cycle lengths after seeing conflicting charts. He tested two ways of dating past bottoms:<\/p>\n
Measure A: 25 months (cycle 1), 28 months (cycle 2), 35 months (cycle 3).
\nMeasure B: 37, 35, and 35 months, respectively.<\/p>\n
He favors Measure B for its consistency, while noting two caveats. First, calling the 2010 low the start of cycle 1 is unconventional but produces the 37-month reading. Second, cycle 2 formed a double bottom; depending on which trough you select, its length is 28 or 35 months. Either way, the third cycle clocked 35 months, reinforcing the pattern.<\/p>\n
Under this template, the current cycle, counting from the November 2022 bear-market low \u2013 would reach month 35 in October 2025. The model does not predict a price, only timing, and Colin stresses the idea of diminishing returns: each cycle\u2019s percentage gain tends to be smaller than the last.<\/p>\n
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Why the timing argument resonates<\/p>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s cycles have often been discussed in relation to halving dates, liquidity waves, and macro policy. Colin\u2019s bottom-to-top timing sidesteps those drivers and simply measures market behavior. A repeated 35-month cadence suggests investor psychology and capital flows may settle into a rhythm-long enough for disbelief to turn to euphoria, but not so long that excesses can\u2019t build.<\/p>\n
What could break the pattern<\/p>\n
History rhymes, it doesn\u2019t repeat. Exogenous shocks (policy pivots, recession, major ETF flows, security events) can truncate or elongate cycles. Even if October 2025 proves pivotal, the \u201ctop\u201d could be a range in time-a cluster of highs-rather than a single daily print.<\/p>\n
How to use (and not misuse) the model<\/p>\n
For long-horizon participants, a date-based framework can help stage entries and de-risking, while avoiding the trap of chasing parabolic moves late in the cycle. For traders, it\u2019s a context tool, not a signal: breadth, funding, options skew, and on-chain distribution still matter for timing.<\/p>\n
The takeaway: if Bitcoin\u2019s bottom-to-top rhythm holds near 35 months, the window for a cycle climax opens in Q4 2025. Expect diminishing percentage gains, wider swings into that window, and remember that models guide\u2014they don\u2019t guarantee. This is not financial advice.<\/p>\n
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