{"id":760848,"date":"2026-06-25T19:32:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T19:32:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/760848\/"},"modified":"2026-06-25T19:32:19","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T19:32:19","slug":"why-some-economists-worry-canada-has-a-data-quality-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/760848\/","title":{"rendered":"Why some economists worry Canada has a data-quality problem"},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

Office towers in Toronto’s Bay Street financial district in 2017.Gary Hershorn\/Globe and Mail<\/p>\n

Most economists, including at the Bank of Canada, were a bit surprised when Statistics Canada reported late last month that the economy contracted slightly over the first three months of the year.<\/p>\n

The consensus estimate among economists and monetary policy-makers was for real GDP growth of roughly 1.5 per cent annualized in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

When the figures actually showed a 0.1-per-cent decline, forecasters were left scratching their heads.<\/p>\n

Incremental data released by Statscan leading up to the quarterly GDP result largely suggested Canada\u2019s economy was in line for modest growth to start the year.<\/p>\n

Instead, the economy posted a second consecutive quarterly decline \u2013 sparking talk of a technical recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While most economists, including at the central bank, have dismissed the recession label as premature, those at Desjardins took the latest economic surprise as an excuse to delve into recent volatility in the data.<\/p>\n

Desjardins economists concluded in a report published Thursday that Canada faces a \u201cdata quality crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Little evidence\u2019 of a recession, with economic growth forecast to hit 0.7% in 2026, Deloitte says<\/a><\/p>\n

Randall Bartlett, the report\u2019s co-author and deputy chief economist at Desjardins, said in an interview that concern about the reliability of data in Canada and internationally is an \u201copen secret\u201d in economics circles.<\/p>\n

Statistics Canada\u2019s view is that volatility should be expected in the data during periods of economic upheaval, but the agency expects those key measures will smooth out as it receives more regular data.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bartlett said he fears economic forecasts and government policy decisions will suffer if they\u2019re not based on cogent information.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the data quality is extremely poor, even so-called evidence-based decisions ultimately could become poor decisions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The Desjardins analysis compared the average size of revisions to Statscan\u2019s monthly GDP by industry figures in the pre- and post-pandemic periods.<\/p>\n

Desjardins economists found that revisions were much larger on average post-pandemic. Revisions also tended to be bigger when more time had passed since the initial estimates.<\/p>\n

A major upward revision to the previous three years of GDP data in November, 2025, was one of the factors giving the federal government a rosier fiscal position in the recent spring economic update compared with the fall budget.<\/p>\n

There are a number of reasons why Statscan might be revising data more regularly, Bartlett explained.<\/p>\n

Much of the agency\u2019s work, such as the monthly labour force statistics, relies on surveys of Canadians. But Statscan and pollsters alike are struggling to get Canadians to answer surveys these days, Bartlett said, limiting these critical sources of data.<\/p>\n

Recent changes in federal immigration policy are also severely curtailing population growth, driving large swings that can skew data like employment rates or per-capita metrics.<\/p>\n

The monthly labour force survey has been the subject of many regular surprises for economists in recent months, though it\u2019s already considered a notoriously volatile data source.<\/p>\n

Not all of the limitations on data are domestic concerns.<\/p>\n

Statscan relies on data from international partners to fill out some of its regular reports \u2013 nowhere more than on the trade front.<\/p>\n

The agency typically exchanges customs data with counterparts in the United States to reconcile trade volumes, but the tariff dispute between the nations and other disruptions south of the border have compromised that flow of information.<\/p>\n

\u201cImports and exports from the U.S. to Canada should mirror those same transactions in the U.S.,\u201d Bartlett said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd if there\u2019s less accuracy in terms of the collection and estimation of those numbers south of the border, that has material implications for how we understand our trade with the U.S. here at home.\u201d<\/p>\n

When the government shutdown in the United States this past fall, it shuttered the U.S. Census Bureau, and Statscan delayed a pair of scheduled releases for international trade.<\/p>\n

When it came time to report third quarter GDP results that rely on those figures, Statscan substituted the missing data with special estimates based on modelling forecasts and some available preliminary data.<\/p>\n

Bartlett said that with first-hand, hard data increasingly unavailable to Statscan, the agency has had to rely on projections like these more often to fill the gaps. But that data is more subject to revisions and may be contradicted when statisticians receive official sources.<\/p>\n

Carter Mann, chief of media relations at Statistics Canada, said in a statement to The Canadian Press that the agency makes stakeholders aware when situations like the U.S. government shutdown could lead to \u201clarger-than-normal revisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Updates to key macroeconomic indicators after getting new sources of data are a part of regular operations at StatCan, he said.<\/p>\n

The agency also does not adjust its modelling to account for structural changes like shifts in population trends or trade disruptions.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring times of economic volatility, it is expected to see increased volatility in the source data, which overtime will calm once more data receipts are incorporated,\u201d Mann said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not change our estimation methodology in times of economic volatility. Methodological consistency is important when measuring the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Statscan is also facing pressures to its operations from the federal government.<\/p>\n

Desjardins pointed out in its report that Statscan, like other federal agencies, is expected to find millions of dollars in savings over the coming years as part of the government-wide expenditure review.<\/p>\n

Statistics Canada aiming to cut more than 850 jobs, including 12% of executive ranks<\/a><\/p>\n

Budget 2025 also instructs the agency to increase its efficiency while reducing costs.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor example, the frequency of data collection will be reduced where the requirements can be met through statistical modelling or other modern methods,\u201d the document reads.<\/p>\n

Bartlett said leaning into new tools like artificial intelligence could help improve the accuracy of Statscan\u2019s projections. But he also argued that the agency needs support from the federal government to accurately show what\u2019s happening on the ground in the economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is certainly room for efficiency gains at Statistics Canada, but ensuring they have the adequate resources they need to provide the best quality data for Canadians and for policy-makers is paramount to ensuring we have at least the same starting point for making policy decisions,\u201d Bartlett said.<\/p>\n

The Canadian Press has reached out to the office of Industry Minister M\u00e9lanie Joly, whose mandate encompasses Statscan, for comment but has not received a response yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: Office towers in Toronto’s Bay Street financial district in 2017.Gary Hershorn\/Globe and Mail…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":760849,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-760848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/760848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=760848"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/760848\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/760849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=760848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=760848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=760848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}